Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first FG props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first FG bets for April 30. Go here for NBA Championship odds.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for April 30.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – April 30
Orlando Magic vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Tipoff – 8:030 pm EST
Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse – Cleveland, Ohio
Broadcast – NBA TV
So far in this four-game series, these two teams have split the tips. That’s slightly surprising since Jarrett Allen was so good this year – currently sporting a 74.1% tip win percentage. However, despite the split tips, the Cavaliers have scored first in every one of the four games so far.
While you like to ride the hot hand, you also need to know when to get off. The first bucket has too high of a volatility to expect someone to win five in a row. The league leader (the Celtics) only won 62.2% of the time in the regular season. As a result, I like the regression play here on the Magic.
Paolo Banchero has been lighting up the play log for the Magic early in games. He’s actually taken the Magic’s first shot in each of the last two games and the first shot of the game in game three. He’s taken one of their first three shots in each game in the series, as well. Let’s get Banchero on the board early here – especially since the books are elevating the price, expecting the Cavaliers to score first.
First FG Bet for April 30: Paolo Banchero (+650)
Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Tipoff – 9:30 pm EST
Fiserv Forum – Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Broadcast – TNT
This game is another spot where I’m looking for a bit of regression to the mean. The Bucks have won every tip in this series but only have one first bucket to show for it. During the season, the Bucks scored the exact same number of first buckets as they won tips. Plus, in general, teams that won the tip were the first scorers at a 64.6% clip. Given these data points, it’s wild that they’ve only scored first once, and I expect that to change on Tuesday.
It seems like most of the Bucks squad is either going to be missing or banged up. In that instance, Malik Beasley has been getting a lot of action. He got active early last game and wound up taking more three-pointers than anyone on the team. He did have seven first field goals on the year, and there’s good reason to see him getting one here.
First FG Bet for April 30: Malik Beasley (+800)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for April 30, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.