Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first FG props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first FG bets for April 14. Go here for NBA Championship odds.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for April 14.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – April 14
Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Tipoff – 3:30 pm EST
Paycom Center – Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
A lot of unfamiliar names show up on the play-by-play for first buckets and even tipoff data at this time of year. As a result, an important piece is finding a team who is still running all of their best players out there. The Thunder are holding on to the number one seed by the skin of their teeth. The Mavericks, meanwhile, with a big win (and some help) could come out with a home series.
There should be a huge advantage on the tip here for the Thunder. Chet Holmgren is winning 60.5% of all of his tips, whereas Daniel Gafford is only winning 37.9% of his. The Mavericks have been a touch better at converting these chances, but with the first possession locked up, I’m leaning with Oklahoma City.
Over the last two games, only two people have been featured in the Thunder’s first three shots. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander took three of those six shots in question and Chet Holmgren took the rest. They’re the only playable names in this one for me, so I’ll just ride with the one with the best numbers.
First FG Bet for April 14: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+650)
Phoenix Suns vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Tipoff – 3:30 pm EST
Target Center – Minneapolis, Minnesota
Broadcast – NBA TV
These two are another couple of teams with something to play for. The Timberwolves are one of the teams that could supplant the Thunder with a win. Meanwhile, the Suns could escape the play-in tournament with a win and some help.
The Suns will have plenty of help on the tip. Jusuf Nurkic should have a massive advantage on the tip. He’s won 68.9% of all tips this year and is one of the very best in the league at doing so. He has a 20.3% advantage in that category against foe Rudy Gobert. When you add in that the Suns also have a 7.4% advantage on the first bucket success rate, then we have to go with Phoenix here.
When the Suns need to come up big, Kevin Durant has a way of inserting himself more than usual. As the season dwindled down and the Suns’ games started to mean more and more, he took more early shots than ever before. I expect him to try to take over this one early as well.
First FG Bet for April 14: Kevin Durant (+550)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for April 14, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.