Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for March 28.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – March 28
Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks
Tipoff – 7:30 pm EST
State Farm Arena – Atlanta, Georgia
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
With two games on the docket for Thursday, we can’t exactly be picky about the matchups that we get for the first bucket action. Luckily for us, this game just happens to feature the team with the best first field goal success rate and the best jump ball guy in the league (minimum 20 attempts). Kristaps Porzingis is getting 76.0% of all tip and they Celtics are making those first possessions count.
The Hawks have nice numbers for themselves, but you can’t shake what the Celtics have. You also can’t shake the trend of the amount of early shots Porzingis is taking for himself. He took the first two in the last game for the Celtics and then he had one of the first two in the previous start. As long as he isn’t taking one of his games off, he’s a solid option here. Plus, even if he does, most books will void that play.
First FG Bet for March 28: Kristaps Porzingis (TBD)
Milwaukee Bucks vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Tipoff – 8:30 pm EST
Smoothie King Center – New Orleans, Louisiana
Broadcast – NBA TV
The Bucks are also a good team to fall into in this incredibly short slate. They are a top five team in terms of getting the first score. The Pelicans, meanwhile, are 9.7% lower in terms of success rate and are in the bottom third of the league.
The numbers on the tip are also good for the Bucks. They’re getting the jump 5.6% more of the time. Brook Lopez also hasn’t missed any time, so you can count on him in there to get the jump.
I hate to replay one of my picks from just two days ago, but Giannis Antetokounmpo has been money lately. Not just in Tuesday’s action, but overall for the Bucks. He’s taking an absurd amount of their early shots and has five of their last ten first buckets. The odds might have a bit of chalk on them, but it’s still worth the dabble.
First FG Bet for March 28: Giannis Antetokounmpo (TBD)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for March 28, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
