In our latest conference tournament, we have the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament preview that tips off on Wednesday from Evansville, Indiana. Check out our best bets and picks as we preview all the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament Action!
For only the fourth time in the 76-year history of the league, there was a three-way tie for first place in the league standings. Little Rock earned the No. 1 seed after finishing 14-4 and winning a three-way tiebreaker with UT Martin and Morehead State.
Meanwhile, the Eagles are the betting favorite coming into the tournament as the No. 3 seed. They will have to win an extra game due to the seeding.
Since this tournament moved to the Ford Center in 2018, either the regular season champion or one of the teams tied for the title has brought down the nets on four of six occasions.
This year’s version is set up for a three-horse race for the title. Let’s dive into this Ohio Valley Conference Tournament preview to break down our best bets.
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2024 Ohio Valley Conference Tournament Preview, Picks, and Best Bets
Conference Tournament Champion Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook (Organized by Seed in Tournament)
Little Rock +225
UT Martin +380
Morehead State +100
Western Illinois +900
Tennessee State +2500
SIUE +3500
Eastern Illinois +10000
Southern Indiana +12000
The Favorite: Morehead State +100
How is the No. 3 team the betting favorite? Well, both Kenpom (123rd) and BartTorvik (132nd) have Morehead State rated as the highest team in the OVC. The next closest is Little Rock, with the highest rating of No. 170.
The Eagles are also rated the highest in the conference on both ends of the floor in adjusted efficiency and effective field goal percentage by BartTorvik.
Yes, Morehead did lose the previous two games against Little Rock and UT Martin. However, this was when key player Jordan Lathon was out injured.
He did play in the first meeting with the Skyhawks, where the Eagles won by 18 at home.
It is a huge disadvantage having to play the extra game, especially for a team with little depth. I still would have them listed as the favorite against any team they face in this Ohio Valley Conference Tournament.
Best Bet: Little Rock +225
I just can’t look away from the easier path that Little Rock has for being the top seed. The Trojans avoid UT Martin and Morehead State until the final, which gives them great betting value.
The other thing that stands out with this pick is how well Little Rock has closed the year. The Trojans have won nine games in a row and 12 of the final 13 to end the regular season.
Since February, Little Rock has had the highest BartTorvik rating by a wide margin. This is also the same team that has the best adjusted efficiency and points per possession on offense and defense during this span.
Another key metric once we enter March is free-throw shooting. You can count on this team to close out games, which ranks fourth in the OVC from the charity stripe.
This is also a veteran squad led by two graduate seniors and another senior and transfers from bigger programs. I love the price on the Trojans to earn the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Favorite Longshot: Tennessee State +2500
I will admit that I have a hard time seeing one of these teams with longer odds cutting down the nets over the three that tied for first. However, my favorite of the bunch would be this Tennessee State squad at 25/1.
For starters, the Tigers find themselves on the right side of the bracket as the fifth seed. They would need to defeat Little Rock, but they avoid two games against UT Martin and Morehead State.
Other factors lead me to TSU. For starters, Coach Brian “Penny” Collins’ team has beaten the three squads on its path to the championship in the Trojans, Western Illinois, and Southern Indiana.
The Tigers are also a team we can trust to shoot late free throws. They rank in the Top 40th in the country in free-throw percentage.
Ultimately, you could make the case for the Leathernecks or the Screaming Eagles in this section as well. This is the side of the bracket you need to target with one of these long shots.
I still see one of the top three winning the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament, but this month is called March Madness for a reason.
Even More College Basketball Content
SGPN has you covered with all the best college basketball content. Our team of degens, experts, and handicappers have been diving deep to know all the teams in advance of March Madness. So, who are you going to roll with as we get into the Conference and NCAA Tournaments? Some Johnny-Come-Lately Corporate Gambling Shill, or the Degens, are LIVE every night at midnight Eastern, breaking down EVERY SINGLE GAME. Ride with Degen Nation, and SGPN will not let you down.
