NBA First FG Props – February 28

NBA First FG Props - February 28

Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first FG props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first FG bets for February 28. Go here for NBA Championship odds.

Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for February 28.

Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.


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NBA First FG Props – February 28

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Chicago Bulls

Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
United Center – Chicago, Illinois
Broadcast – NBA League Pass

The Cavaliers have all the advantages you’d be looking for on the quest for the first buckets. They have a much better rate when it comes to converting the chances they get. They grab the first field goal at a clip of 9.4% better than the Bulls.

There is also a huge difference in the jumpball. Nikola Vucevic has not been good this year, and Jarrett Allen has been solid. Allen gets 75.0% of the tips he takes, whereas Vucevic gets only 32.7%. The Cavaliers should win the jump easily and have a big edge to score first here.

There are a lot of guys on the Cavaliers who are getting early looks. However, one that has been consistent on the early game lately has been Evan Mobley. He’s the only player to take one of the first three shots in each of their last two games. Let’s just hope it’s the first here for a high-percentage finish.

First FG Bet for February 28: Evan Mobley (+600)

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Tipoff – 10:00 pm EST Arena – Los Angeles, California
Broadcast – ESPN

The Lakers are a league-average team when it comes to tip and first field goal data. They rank 16th in the league on the first bucket (at exactly 50.0%). They rank just a touch higher on the tipoff with 53.3% (good for 13th in the NBA). While those numbers are definitely not ‘must tail’ numbers, it should be more than enough against the Clippers.

The Clippers are second-to-last in the league on the tip with just 30.4%. They aren’t doing much better at completing those attempts. They have just 37.% of the first baskets, which puts them again at 29th in the league. You can call it a fade of the Clippers or a tail of the Lakers – but the side is simple.

While the side is easy, the player pick is a little trickier. It seems like in every game, they rotate through a different guy to get a bunch of early looks. Last game, it was Rui Hachimura who took both of their first two shots. I’m staying away from him because the looks aren’t consistent.

The place I’m pivoting to is Anthony Davis. He may not have the looks in the recent games, but the Clippers have given up first buckets to centers in five of their last six failures. Let’s make that six of their last seven.

First FG Bet for February 28: Anthony Davis (+400)


If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for February 28, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar. 

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