Are great three-point shooting teams a lock to go over their point total? Do teams that can’t throw it in the ocean always go under? We’ve taken a look at the best and worst teams from beyond the arc and dug into the numbers. With conference championship season just around the corner, this may be a college basketball betting trend that you’ll want to consider before the calendar flips to March.
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College Basketball Betting Trends to Know: Impact of Three Point Shooting on O/U
Let’s take a deep dive into the teams who are absolutely awful from beyond the arc and take a look at the impact on game totals. Find the stats for every team at this link.
IUPUI Jaguars
25.2% 3-Point %, 11-10-3 O/U
The good news is that IUPUI is no longer holding open tryouts in-season to fill out their roster. The bad news is that the Jaguars still aren’t very good at basketball.
They can’t shoot from beyond the arc and are middling from inside the arc. However, their defense is helping their overs cash. The only reason they’re covering overs is because they give up an average of 81.3 points per game. In fact, in their 11 overs, the opposing team has only scored fewer than 82 points twice.
The play here is to look for IUPUI games that are at 146 or higher and go over. The Jaguars are 8-3 to the over in games with point totals over 146. They give up more than they score.
Buffalo Bulls
26.0% 3-Point %, 10-15-1 O/U
The only player on the Buffalo Bulls shooting over 35% from beyond the arc this year is forward Jonnivius Smith, and he only averages 1.4 attempts per game. However, they shoot 52.1% from inside the arc.
When it comes to the point totals, Buffalo plays at a quick pace, and their defense is really rough. The Bulls are 334th in scoring defense this year. They’re another team that goes over when they get absolutely wrecked by their opposition.
However, they play to the under because they get really beefy game totals. They’ve only had a game total under 140 points once this year.
The way to play the Buffalo Bulls is to look for game totals between 146.0 and 150.0 points. Buffalo is 4-7 to the under on games in that range.
Coppin State Eagles
26.4% 3-Point %, 8-15 O/U
Coppin State would get a lot more attention if they had a similar record to the next team on the list. The Eagles have been an under wagon this year, and they’re really poor from three-point land.
No one on Coppin State who plays more than 20 minutes per game is shooting above 30% from beyond the arc. Freshman guard Aa’Reyon Munir-Jones is playing 23.3 minutes per game and is shooting for 13.8% from three.
The Eagles shoot 37.3% from the field and play at an average pace. They just don’t shoot well enough to help their cause to the over. However, they only allow 72.6 points per game. That’s good enough for 172nd in the country.
Coppin State shoots really poorly but is capable of getting a stop on defense. Both of these play a role in their totals record. They’re a system play on the under this year. Stay away if their total is under 130. They’re 2-2 O/U in games with point totals lower than 130 points this year.
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils
27.4% 3-Point %, 11-15 O/U
Mississippi Valley State basketball games need to come with a disclaimer. Every game needs a label that says, “Caution: May Contain Basketball-like Substance” with a poison symbol.
This also goes for their three-point shooting. The good news here is that they don’t attempt very many. Rayquan Brown is the only player on the Delta Devils to have attempted 100 shots or more from beyond the arc.
Arecko Gipson is leading MVSU in three-point shooting with a 44% three-point percentage. He attempts less than one three per game. The Delta Devils need to let him fire. It’s not like the results are going to be worse than what’s currently happening.
MVSU doesn’t play defense, is awful from inside the arc and outside the arc, and plays at a slower pace. It’s a legitimate surprise that they aren’t hitting more unders this year.
If you see a Delta Devils game total in the 140-point range, go under. They’re 1-5 to the under when the second number in the point total is a four.
Texas A&M Aggies
27.4% 3-Point %, 15-11 O/U
A team that isn’t ranked in the 300’s on KenPom! Texas A&M struggles from beyond the arc this year. The Aggies have one regular that’s shooting better than 35% from three this year. Andersson Garcia is shooting 40% from three-point range this season, but he’s only made 15 attempts.
Wade Taylor IV has fired up over 200 shots from three this year, but he’s only hitting at a 30.4% rate.
The Aggies struggle from the field, play at a slow pace, and their defense isn’t terrible. So, how are they trending to the over? Books have struggled to place the Aggies this year. They’re 5-1 to the over on point totals of 136 points or lower. However, they’re also 2-3 to the under on point totals over 150 points.
They play a lot of the faster-paced offenses in the country in the SEC, and the Aggies are designed to play to the under. It makes sense that books would struggle with their game totals.
You’ve seen the rest, now let’s take a look at the best three-point shooting teams in the country and their records O/U.
Purdue Boilermakers
40.6% 3-Point %, 18-9 O/U
The Purdue Boilermakers are a wagon from beyond the arc. Purdue has six players who average more than 10 minutes per game and shoot over 40% from three this year.
Mason Gillis is at 82 attempts this year, and he’s shooting over 48% from three-point land. Lance Jones has 165 attempts and is shooting 36.5% this year.
The Boilermakers are middle of the pack in defense and pace but are the seventh-best shooting team from the field. Purdue makes their shots. They also play enough defense to win but not enough to keep games from going under.
If you get the Boilermakers with a number in the 150s, go over. They’re 8-4 to the over with game totals higher than 150 points.
Kentucky Wildcats
40.5% 3-Point %, 18-8 O/U
The Kentucky Wildcats are another wagon on offense. They’re only shooting slightly worse from three and the field than the Boilermakers are. They also play the sixth fastest pace in the country and have the 303rd-ranked defense in the country.
The Wildcats don’t play defense and do shoot the lights out. It’s a surprise they’re not 26-0 to the over this year.
Freshman guard Reed Sheppard is shooting 50.8% from beyond the arc and has attempted 106 shots from three this year.
The over for Kentucky is almost a system play this year, but look to lean in if they ever get a point total under 160 points. Kentucky is 11-4 to the over whenever they get a point total less than 160 points. They’re only 7-4 on totals over 160 points. They’re also 3-0 on point totals over 170 points this year.
Baylor Bears
40.4% 3-Point %, 13-12 O/U
Baylor has one of the most capable rosters from beyond the arc in the country. The Bears have only one regular shooting below 30% from beyond the arc. Jayden Nunn and Langston Love are both shooting over 40% from three this year.
When it comes to rate of play and defense, Baylor actually plays slower than you think and allows 71.0 points per game. They’re also capable of shooting the lights out, so it’s no wonder that their performance against game totals is just barely over .500. They don’t play fast enough to really hit overs, but they play enough defense to keep games close.
Baylor is one of the few stay-away teams on these lists when it comes to their game totals. There really isn’t a strong enough trend that’s playable.
Samford Bulldogs
40.3% 3-Point %, 11-15 O/U
Samford is the exact kind of team that should be playing to the over, so why aren’t they? The Bulldogs shoot the lights out, play one of the fastest paces in the country, and give up a lot of points.
Samford has five regulars shooting 40% or better from three-point land. Jaden Campbell is shooting 46.5% from beyond the arc on 86 attempts this year.
The Bulldogs have only had three game totals under 150 points this year, and they’ve gone 2-1 to the over. Books are clearly on to them, and setting the totals higher. Samford has also been a bit streaky this year.
They hit on the over on their first four games with point totals over 155 points, but are 0-4 to the under in their last four.
McNeese State Cowboys
40.1% 3-Point %, 12-9-1 O/U
The McNeese State Cowboys are the Purdue of the Southland Conference. The Cowboys shoot the lights out from three, from inside the arc, and at the free-throw line.
McNeese State has five players who earn more than 10 minutes per game and shoot better than 40% from three. Sophomore guard D.J. Richards Jr. shoots a very nice 46.9% from beyond the arc and has attempted 130 three-balls this year. Keep shooting, D.J.
The Cowboys shoot 48.3% from the field, but they play at a slower pace than you would think. They only average 68.1 possessions per game. They’re eighth in the county when it comes to points allowed. McNeese plays slow but locks teams down and shoots well. It’s not a surprise that they’re close to .500 on their O/U results.
If you get a beefy total on the Cowboys, look to go over. McNeese State is 3-0 to the over in games with point totals of 150 or higher.
Do you want even more college basketball betting trends and picks? March is just around the corner and the College Basketball Experience is running down every game on the slate for every day of the week. Listen to Colby and Moneyline Mac, take their picks, and let it ride!
