Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for January 21.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – January 21
Miami Heat vs. Orlando Magic
Tipoff – 6:00 pm EST
Kia Center – Orlando, Florida
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The early game data here clearly leans to the visitors in Miami. The most obvious reason is that they have Bam Adebayo taking the tip, who is good for 78.8% of them. With the team winning the tip getting two-thirds of the first buckets, that should already be enough. However, you can add in that the Magic will send out Goga Bitadze who is tipping below 20%. The Magic are also bottom third in the league in first field goals.
It seems like a lot of the early game action from the Heat lately is from the outside. That doesn’t necessarily mean that the first bucket is coming from a guard though. Nikola Jovic has been hitting the occasional deep shot and he’s been taking a lot early. With Tyler Herro banged up, I like his chances to get another first bucket here.
First FG Bet for January 21: Nikola Jovic (+1100)
Portland Trailblazers vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Tipoff – 10:00 pm EST
crypto.com Arena – Los Angeles, California
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
While the full team stats might favor the Lakers on the jump, the Blazers appear to have a slight advantage with Deandre Ayton back. He’s grabbing the tip at a 60.0% clip, which is right around 5% better than Anthony Davis and the Lakers. However, I’m still going to lean to the Lakers here. They have a 6% better average in completing their first bucket attempts, which I think should be the difference maker with the tip averages so close.
Anthony Davis is the easiest answer here, but his number is chalkier and chalkier every time I see it posted. A contrarian play I like for Sunday is D’Angelo Russell. He’s been getting a lot of their early deep attempts. In addition, he’s their highest percentage shooter from the outside, which can’t hurt.
First FG Bet for January 21: D’Angelo Russell (+900)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for January 21, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
