Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for January 9.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – January 9
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Orlando Magic
Tipoff – 7:00 pm EST
Kia Center – Orlando, Florida
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Timberwolves aren’t usually the type of team that I get behind on the first bucket props. They have below average tips and below average early bucket percentage – 42.9% on each of them. However, they do have one thing going for them, which is that Goga Bitadze is going to be taking the tip for the Magic. He’s 4-for-25 on the year on the tip, which is good for 16%. The Magic are putting up similar numbers on the first field goals, which gives me enough to go with a Timberwolves player here.
Five different guys have scored the first bucket for the Timberwolves in their last five successes. However, despite that there are two guys who seem to get the bulk of the early action for Minnesota – Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert. They’ve each had a shot in the first three for the Timberwolves in each of the last three games. Either would be a decent play, but I’ll ride with the guy taking higher precentage shots on the regular.
First FG Bet for January 9: Rudy Gobert (TBD)
Sacramento Kings vs. Detroit Pistons
Tipoff – 7:00 pm EST
Little Caesars Arena – Detroit, Michigan
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
If you just look at how often these two are getting the first bucket, you’ll get little to differentiate. The Pistons have scored first in 61.1% of games, whereas the Kings have in 60.0% of games. That being said, there is a big difference in the tip data. Jalen Duren has won 70.0% of all tips this year, which puts him among the best in the league. Domantas Sabonis is winning 31.4%, which puts him near the bottom. That early possession is enough for me to like the Pistons’ action here.
If you take the average height of the guys who have scored the first bucket against the Kings in their last three failures, it comes out right around 6’9″ with nobody under 6’7″. Most have been stretch the floor kind of types on the wing. That fits the bill of Bojan Bogdanovic to a tee.
First FG Bet for January 9: Bojan Bogdanovic (TBD)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for January 9, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
