Let’s Talk About Teasers – Week 18 NFL Wong Teasers

Let's Talk About Teasers - Week 18 NFL Wong Teasers

What’s up, everyone? If you are unfamiliar with this post or new to the subreddit, one of the things we love to take a look at each week here are the Week 18 NFL Wong Teasers betting lines that follow along with the betting strategies that Stanford Wong outlined for us regarding Week 18 NFL Teasers.

YES, if you look below, they don’t follow along exactly with how he set it out for us, but I have done extensive research into the historical data and outlined the reasoning for how we do it here.

If you want some more info on Wong Teasers in general, please check out this Wong Teaser Basics Article I wrote over the summer.

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Let’s Talk About Teasers – Week 18 NFL Wong Teasers

Week 18 Lines

Please note that the results posted next week may differ from what is below due to line movement.

This will show the total and the Record of that team as a 6pt teaser in the current situation this week. So if they’re an underdog, their record below will be their record as an underdog. The total is only on this chart, so you can reference it.

6 Point Teaser Lines Total 6pt Record since 2018
Falcons +3 42.5 14-3
Vikings +3 45.5 14-5
Jets +1.5 30.5 17-2
Bears +2.5 43.5 18-1
Broncos +2.5 38 17-1
Cardinals +2.5 47.5 13-7
Dolphins +3 49 8-6

 

10 Point Teaser Lines Total 10 pt Record since 2018
Cardinals +2.5 47.5 10-2
Jets +1.5 30.5 5-0
Bears +2.5 43.5 7-0
Broncos +2.5 38 12-0

So how do I bet these?

Typically, I will form 2-3 Week 18 NFL teasers taking in information from handicappers at the Sports Gambling Podcast Network as well as my own handicaps on teams that meet the criteria. As well as any additional trends.

Can you round-robin these?

You can, but this is what this year would have looked like. Granted, it was a bad year.

Be sure to follow me here on Reddit as well as my Twitter for all of my updates and gambling content.

Usually, I will try and do this post on Wednesday-Friday every week of the season to help you track how they are doing and give you the lines that meet the criteria at the time of posting.

6 Point Teasers

Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong’s strategy:

– Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3

– Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.

Sweetheart Teasers

10-point teasers are often called “sweetheart” teasers.

– For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;

– Tease the favorite at -10, -10½

– Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;

Week 17 Results

Below are the results from the previous week based on the closing line:

6 Point Teaser Lines Total Result
Saints +2.5 42.5 WIN
Falcons +2.5 39 LOSS
Dolphins +3 47 LOSS

 

10 Point Teaser Lines Total Result
Saints +2.5 42.5 WIN
Falcons +2.5 39 LOSS

 

2023 Results

Teaser Line Record Win %
6 pt +1 ½ thru +3 76-29 72.4%
6 pt -7 ½ thru -9 12-6 66.67%
10 pt +1 ½ thru +2 ½ 44-14 75.9%
10 pt -10 thru -10.5 4-1 80%

 

Week Record Win %
1 5-1 83.33%
2 10-1 90.91%
3 4-3 57.14%
4 6-4 60%
5 5-1 83.33%
6 6-1 85.71%
7 6-3 66.67%
8 3-2 60%
9 6-2 75%
10 5-3 62.5%
11 7-1 87.5%
12 6-4 60%
13 3-1 75%
14 8-1 88.89%
15 4-2 66.67%
16 5-2 71.43%
17 1-2 33.33%

 

If you are interested in doing a little deeper dive into these bets, continue below…

Historical Wong Teaser Stats

Teaser Year Spread Record Win %
6 pt 2018 +1½ thru +3 59-18 76.62%
6 pt 2019 +1½ thru +3 52-18 74.29%
6 pt 2020 +1½ thru +3 60-16 78.95%
6 pt 2021 +1½ thru +3 67-17 79.76%
6 pt 2022 +1½ thru +3 61-21 74.39%
6 pt 2018 -7½ thru -9 18-3 85.71%
6 pt 2019 -7½ thru -9 13-4 76.47%
6 pt 2020 -7½ thru -9 25-3 89.29%
6 pt 2021 -7½ thru -9 24-5 82.76%
6 pt 2022 -7½ thru -9 15-6 71.43%
10 pt 2018 +1½ thru +2½ 35-3 92.1%
10 pt 2019 +1½ thru +2½ 35-5 87.5%
10 pt 2020 +1½ thru +2½ 34-6 85%
10 pt 2021 +1½ thru +2½ 36-3 92.3%
10 pt 2022 +1½ thru +2½ 48-9 84.21%
10 pt 2018 -10 thru -10½ 10-1 90.91%
10 pt 2019 -10 thru -10½ 10-3 76.92%
10 pt 2020 -10 thru -10½ 8-0 100%
10 pt 2021 -10 thru -10½ 13-0 100%
10 pt 2022 -10 thru -10½ 9-1 90%

 

Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have a breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. These are specifically for my book, so yours may differ.

Weekly Wong Teaser Records 2018-2022

Week Record Win %
1 23-8 74.2%
2 19-5 79.19%
3 31-3 91.18%
4 19-9 67.86%
5 21-5 80.77%
6 23-9 71.88%
7 17-8 68%
8 17-2 89.47%
9 22-4 84.62%
10 21-4 84%
11 20-9 68.97%
12 28-3 90.32%
13 22-5 81.48%
14 25-11 69.44%
15 25-7 78.13%
16 31-4 88.57%
17 11-8 57.9%
18 4-2 50%

 

Regarding Game Totals < 49

Do totals matter? Another word of advice that some Wong bettors give is to only play games with low totals. The idea certainly makes sense: points are harder to come by in a low-scoring game, so the 6-point tease is worth more. But what does the data say about this in the last three years?

From 2018-2022, here are the statistics, including playoffs:

Bet Record Win %
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 301-95 76.01%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 230-67 77.44%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 64-19 77.11%

 

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 86-25 77.48%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 63-19 76.83%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 14-7 66.67%

 

Here are the results for 2023:

Bet Record Win %
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 76-29 72.4%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 73-27 73%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 40-11 78.4%

 

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 12-6 66.67%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 11-6 64.7%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 5-2 71.43%
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