The 2023 MLB offseason might be one of the best and most exciting offseasons in recent memory. Juan Soto, Luis Robert, Corbin Burnes, and maybe MIKE TROUT… may all be moved before the 2024 season starts. Before all those dominoes fall, we have a free agency class that has depth and stars at the top! Here are my top 10 MLB Free Agency Rankings and Predictions of where they will land!
Go here for more MLB content!
MLB Free Agency Rankings and Predictions
1) Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH (age: 29) – Los Angeles Dodgers
2023 season: 135 G, 44 HR, 95 RBI, .305/.412/.654, 184 OPS+ 10-5, 3.14 ERA, 132.0 IP, 1.061 WHIP
A lot has been made of the long-awaited free agency for what may be the greatest and most talented player ever to play the sport of baseball. Shohei Ohtani is truly one of a kind, but let’s get some things straight:
The Los Angeles Angels are a dumpster fire. The team had three chances to trade Ohtani for top prospects to rebuild their lackluster team. The Angels opted not to trade Ohtani and now will lose him for nothing.
Don’t expect a slew of teams to offer Ohtani a contract. Yes, 30 out of 30 MLB teams would love for Shohei Ohtani to play for their squad. That being said, there simply aren’t that many teams out there willing to shell out $500+ million for one player. (Although Ohtani is basically two players.)
Ohtani will not pitch in 2024. The two-time MVP had surgery to repair his torn UCL and is expected to be ready to pitch by 2025 and DH in some capacity next season. The exact timeline is unknown. I expect more to become public following his free agency decision.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have been patiently waiting for the 2023 offseason. It is no secret the Dodgers have wanted Ohtani for some time now, as they were even in on him back when he was originally posted from Japan. The Dodgers mysteriously reset their payroll over the last two offseasons and were able to get under the luxury tax last season.
The team let the 2023 World Series MVP, Corey Seager, walk two offseasons ago. They also opted not to resign Trea Turner, Max Scherzer, or Cody Bellinger last offseason. Especially after losing in the NLDS twice in consecutive seasons, all inclinations point to the Dodgers having a MONSTER offseason.
2) Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP (age: 25) – New York Mets
2023 season (JAPAN): 16-6 1.21 ERA, 164.0 IP, 0.884 WHIP
There is no doubt there will be a bidding war for Japanese superstar Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Yamamoto is the best pitcher out of Japan since Ohtani. At age 25, this makes it a slam dunk for whoever can land him, and it seems like there will be multiple teams in the mix.
The Yankees made it clear they were interested in Yamamoto after sending scouts to Japan back in September. Other larger clubs like the Mets, Giants, Cubs, and Dodgers will likely be in on Yamamoto.
At the end of the day, I think this turns into a bidding war between the two New York teams, with the Mets taking the edge. The Mets are desperate for pitching after moving on from Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander prior to the 2023 trade deadline.
3) Cody Bellinger, CF/1B (age: 28) – San Francisco Giants
2023 season: 130 G, 26 HR, 97 RBI, .307/.356/.525, 133 OPS+
What a resurgence it was in 2023 for Cody Bellinger. The former 23-year-old MVP struggled from 2020-2022. Shoulder injuries made it difficult for Bellinger to stay on the field, and when he was on the field, he couldn’t keep up with high-velocity fastballs.
The Dodgers chose to move on from Bellinger, and the Cubs swooped in with a one-year $17.5 million deal. He posted a 133 OPS+, which was his best since his 2019 MVP campaign. Bellinger plays an excellent centerfield and also has experience playing some first base. He provides great versatility to whichever squad he lands on.
Much has been said about Bellinger’s fit with the Yankees because of their desperate need for lefthanded-hitting outfielders, but I think the Giants end up nabbing the 28-year-old. After barely missing out on the Aaron Judge sweepstakes, the Giants finally land their pized free agent here.
4) Blake Snell, LHP (age: 31) – Atlanta Braves
2023 season: 14-9, 2.25 ERA, 180.0 IP, 1.189 WHIP
Blake Snell, at his best, is about as dominant as any pitcher in baseball. The 31-year-old is coming off his second Cy Young Award and is about to get PAID. Snell led the league with a 2.25 ERA in 2023 but did struggle with his command in the new pitch clock era.
The Braves are coming off one of their best regular seasons in franchise history but failed to win a playoff series for the second season in a row. I expect the Braves to be in on a bunch of the top free agents in this class simply because of the flexibility they have with this roster. They have Ronald Acuna, Michael Harris, Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Spencer Strider, and Sean Murphy locked up on long-term deals for relatively cheap money.
Pairing Snell with Strider at the top of the rotation could be what the Braves need to push them over the top in the National League.
5) Josh Hader, LHP (age: 30) – Texas Rangers
2023 season: 33 SV, 1.28 ERA, 56.1 IP, 1.101 WHIP
Josh Hader posted one of the best seasons in his career in 2023 but made headlines toward the end of the season for refusing to pitch for more than three outs. I guess it’s hard to blame the guy pitching in a contract year for a struggling Padres team, it’s but definitely not a good look.
The Rangers heavily relied on their starting pitching en route to their first World Series victory in franchise history. I can see Texas bringing back Aroldis Chapman as well, but penciling in Hader for the ninth inning would be a no-brainer move for the defending champs.
6) Jordan Montgomery, LHP (age: 30) – Texas Rangers
2023 season: 10-11, 3.20 ERA, 188.2 IP, 1.193 WHIP
What a time for Jordan Montgomery to have the best season of his career. The 30-year-old southpaw was HUGE for the Rangers as their number two pitcher in the playoffs.
A year after Yankees GM Brian Cashman told the media he traded Montgomery because he wasn’t going to help the team in the playoffs, he goes out and dominates the Orioles and Astros in the playoffs.
I expect the Rangers to keep Monty around for the foreseeable future.
7) Sonny Gray, RHP (age: 34) – Boston Red Sox
2023 season: 8-8, 2.79 ERA, 184.0 IP, 1.147 WHIP
If it wasn’t for Gerrit Cole’s otherworldly performance, Sonny Gray would be your 2023 AL Cy Young Award winner. Gray has been up and down throughout his long career but seemed to have found a nice home in Minnesota. The Twins, a small market squad, will seek to find a cheaper option, in my estimation.
In steps, the Boston Red Sox, who had the 20th best team ERA in baseball in 2023. Boston had a shockingly low payroll last season, and fans were not too happy about that. I’m sure they will be spending a decent amount this offseason, and shoring up that pitching staff is a good way to get fans back on your side.
8) Matt Chapman, 3B (age: 31) – San Francisco Giants
2023 season: 140 G, 17 HR, 54 RBI, .240/.330/.424, 108 OPS+
Matt Chapman is one of the more interesting cases of a free agent this offseason. According to the counting stats, Chapman had one of the worst seasons of his career in 2023. He posted a career-low in home runs and RBIs in a season where he plays at least 100 games. Although, if you look deeper into the numbers, Chapman finished ninth in the MLB in barrel rate, ahead of guys like Bryce Harper, Matt Olson, and Pete Alonso. Maybe he was getting a bit unlucky.
The Giants are expected to spend big money after two disappointing seasons in a row. I think Chapman is a great cornerstone piece for a new-look squad.
9) Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP (age: 30) – Los Angeles Dodgers
2023 season: 13-9, 3.30 ERA, 152.2 IP, 1.153 WHIP
Like some others on this list, E-Rod had one of the best years of his career in 2023. He actually was traded to the Dodgers prior to the trade deadline, but he opted to exercise his no-trade clause, citing not wanting to uproot his family in the middle of a season.
I think this is a no-brainer for the Dodgers, who need to shore up their often-injured pitching staff, especially if Clayton Kershaw opts for retirement. E-Rod also has playoff experience that could go a long way for a young pitching staff.
10) J.D. Martinez, DH (age: 36) – Seattle Mariners
2023 season: 113 G, 33 HR, 103 RBI, .271/.321/.572, 134 OPS+
After a down 2022 season with Boston, J.D. Matinez returned to form in 2023 with the Dodgers. His strikeouts were up, but he was hitting the ball over the fence at one of the highest rates in his career.
Martinez will probably want to play for a contender at this point in his career, and the Mariners seem to make a ton of sense here. I think Seattle will lose Teoscar Hernandez in free agency, and Martinez can replace most of that offensive production, although Martinez is a DH only at this point.
