The college football season rolls into Week 11. That means we’re a few weeks away from conference championship week and about a month away from bowl season. Time flies when you’re picking games. We have a nice, full slate of games to watch and another week of playing Underdog Fantasy College Football Pick’em.
Underdog Fantasy College Football Week 11 Higher/Lower Plays
The overarching theme for this week’s picks? Usage rates. We have over two months of data on these teams and know just about everyone’s tendencies at this point in the year. We’ve found a few areas that might have gone overlooked, and you’ll want to know about them when you put together an Underdog Fantasy College Football Pick’em entry for Week 11.
Michigan at Penn State
J.J. McCarthy Lower 30.0 Passing Attempts
In nine starts this year, Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy has only attempted 30 or more passes twice. The Wolverines felt the need to throw 37 times in a blowout against the Purdue Boilermakers last weekend, and McCarthy somehow tossed the ball 30 times against East Carolina in Week 1.
Teams have averaged 29.6 pass attempts against the Penn State defense this year. Opponents have only gone over 30 pass attempts twice. Maryland did it last week, and Ohio State two weeks ago.
The Wolverines play bully ball with their running game and offensive line. They’re only looking to put the ball in the air when they have to. Expect Michigan to lean on its ground game in a game that should be won by the team that makes the least mistakes. McCarthy has been remarkably efficient, but it’s hard to see Michigan changing up its game plan in its toughest test to date.
Look to go lower on passing attempts for McCarthy in your Underdog Fantasy College Football Pick’em entry this week.
Oklahoma State at Central Florida
Alan Bowman Higher 34.5 Passing Attempts
In his six starts at quarterback for Oklahoma State, Alan Bowman has only been under 35 passing attempts once this year. He only threw the ball 34 times against Cincinnati. Cowboys head coach clearly has confidence in Bowman’s command of the offense and lets him sling it. This match-up is also a weird road spot for Oklahoma State, and they may need to put the ball in the air if they’re behind in the second half.
The very Golden Knights have averaged 28.8 pass attempts against per game, but that’s a bit skewed by some of their opponents. UCF has played Boise State, Villanova, West Virginia, and Cincinnati. Four of their nine games came against teams that don’t put the ball in the air very much. Kansas didn’t try to pass and let their backfield roll, but the other four games saw teams try to move the ball against through the air against UCF.
Bowman will likely get an opportunity to air it out in a game that the Cowboys could find themselves needed to catch up in. Go higher on passing attempts for Bowman in an Underdog Fantasy College Football Pick’em entry.
Iowa State at BYU
Eli Sanders Higher 14.5 rushing attempts
The BYU Cougars have allowed the third most yards on the ground in the Big 12, and they’re allowing 4.8 yards per carry against. Look for Iowa State to lean on their ground game in a tough road trip to Provo, UT.
Cyclones running back Eli Sanders has earned the majority of the carries this year over fellow Sophomore Cartevious Nelson. Sanders has averaged almost a full yard more per carry than Nelson and has carried the ball 15 or more times in three out of seven games played this year. He’s missed in each of his last two games by just one carry.
Sanders should get over the number on Saturday and help the Cyclones grind out a tough road win to secure bowl eligibility. Have Sanders going higher on your Underdog Fantasy College Football Pick’em entry.
California at Washington State
Jeremiah Hunter Higher 4.5 receptions
Washington State has allowed 21.9 completions per game and 260.6 yards per game through the air. Both of those weekly averages put their pass defense in the bottom half of the Pac-12 conference.
Freshman quarterback Fernando Mendoza will make his fifth career start for the Golden Bears on Saturday. He’s an RPO quarterback who is capable of putting the ball in the air, but teams also need to respect his legs. He’s opened up the Cal offense, and one of his favorite targets has been wide receiver Jeremiah Hunter.
Hunter has caught five or more balls in every game except one. His only miss came against Oregon State in a game that saw Mendoza go 21-of-32 for 207 yards. In their last two games together, Mendoza and Hunter hooked up 13 times for 160 yards.
Mendoza should continue to feed Hunter as he’s the Golden Bears’ top pass catcher and the most skilled receiver on the roster. The Cougars have shown that their pass defense can be a bit leaky at times, and Hunter is savvy enough to find the soft spots.
Hunter should rack up another game with five or more catches, and you’ll want to aim higher in an Underdog Fantasy College Football Pick’em entry this weekend.
Kansas vs. Texas Tech
Devin Neal Higher 17.95 fantasy points
With this pick, it’s important to remember that Underdog Fantasy College Football Pick’em entries get 0.5 points per reception and 0.1 points per rushing or receiving yard.
Devin Neal has gone over 18 fantasy points on Underdog Fantasy in three of the last four weeks and in six out of nine games this year. Most of Neal’s damage comes on the ground, where he averages 6.1 yards per carry. However, he’s also picked up at least two receptions in seven out of nine games. Neal also has 10 total touchdowns this year, and he’s only been prevented from reaching the end zone in three games.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders allow 140.7 yards per game on the ground this year. They also surrender 4.0 yards per carry and have allowed 12 rushing touchdowns.
Neal should find the end zone on Saturday and compile his way to 18.0 or more fantasy points.
Are you looking for even more top picks for this week’s college football slate? Check out The College Football Experience to get advice on every game this week. Not enough? No worries. We also have an FCS edition and The Big 12 Experience for even more insights. Listen to our shows, take our advice, and let it ride!
