Another week of MACtion as we have a few games to keep us going on tonight. Truly, anyone can lose to anyone in this league, but we will deep dive into the matchups to make sense of it all. Let’s go, Tuesday Night Football time.
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Week 11 Tuesday Night College Football Picks
Ball State (42.5) at Northern Illinois -9.5
NIU lost outright as touchdown favorites last week while on the road at Central Michigan. At 3-2 in the MAC, they are on the outside looking in. NIU has been wildly inconsistent this year. Playing really well against superior teams and playing badly against inferior teams. The start of their season summarized that perfectly. Winning at Boston College and following up with a loss at home to an FCS school. They also narrowly beat clear MAC favorite Toledo and almost lost to a really bad MAC school in Eastern Michigan. What do I mean by all of this… Northern Illinois is a downright tough handicap.
Ball State sits at 2-7 but has played better of late. Narrowly beating Toledo and Bowling Green in two of the last three weeks was a shock, as they are some of the better teams in the league. They defeated Central Michigan at home two weeks ago, a team that NIU just lost to. With all of the weird NIU results and surging Ball State results, the eye goes towards Ball State and the points. This line is telling us to take NIU, though. At home, in a bounce-back spot. NIU got into trouble last week defending the QB run, and Ball State will not exploit that. Give me Lombardi and Co.
The Pick: Northern Illinois -9.5
Central Michigan (57.5) at Western Michigan -3
Both of these teams are middle-of-the-pack MAC programs, and the records show it. One thing they have in common is wanting to get the job done with the offense. Although they have a solid offensive output against MAC opponents of late, their offenses rate out very low nationally. This total is baked into the recent results, but I believe we see some regression with these two offenses.
The Pick: Under 57.5
Ohio -7 at Buffalo (43.5)
Ohio was nearly a co-favorite in the conference when the season started, but they have not looked up to standard. At 3-2, they are still live to make the MAC Championship game, but the loss to Miami Ohio (4-1) was a big one. Surely, they need to get back on track in order to save their season against a poor Buffalo team.
Buffalo is still alive to become bowl-eligible, and I do not love the idea of laying seven on the road. Ohio should still be able to move the ball, but I would not be shocked if this Buffalo bunch is able to hang in there. They have a veteran QB who is more than capable of winning this game.
The Pick: Buffalo Team Total over 17.5
