The 2023 Final Four was the pinnacle for mid-major college basketball fans. Both San Diego State and Florida Atlantic made the semifinals last season. The Aztecs beat the Owls to earn the right to play for the National Championship. It was a very important NCAA Tournament for the growth of college basketball in this new transfer portal and NIL era. Parity is what makes NCAA Basketball fun, and there is much more action to fall in love with outside of the high major conferences that always flood the college basketball rankings. These are some mid-major teams to keep an eye out for this upcoming season.
Top 10 Mid-Major College Basketball Teams Entering 2023-24
The Sports Gambling Podcast Network aims to be your best guide for preseason college basketball. On the website, we have conference previews for every high major (ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, PAC 12, SEC). However, the American, Mountain West, and West Coast Conference will not be included. The discussion of whether those conferences are true mid-majors is for another time. Those conferences will be included in these Top 10 Mid-Major rankings.
The College Basketball Experience is SGPN’s CBB podcast, which is previewing every conference. AKA every team in college basketball this season. If you were hoping a certain mid-major would be in these rankings but is not, I encourage you to listen to the show. The guys spend time previewing each team in the conference separately. Then, they list their preseason rankings for each conference at the end of the podcast.
1. Florida Atlantic Owls
Florida Atlantic put together a dream season last year. Head Coach Dusty May led the Owls to the Final Four and a 35-4 record. Entering his sixth year, May only loses one player from what was a super deep team. Florida Atlantic’s depth was a major strength for their team. Not a guy played over 26 minutes per game last season. But also, seven players averaged more than 20 minutes per game. Six of those seven return for 2023-24.
The Owls are deadly from three-point range. Alijah Martin was 73-196 (37.2%), Nick Boyd 68-170 (40%), Bryan Greenlee 55-136 (40.4%). Then, 7’1 Center Vladislav Goldin grabbed 6.5 rebounds per game and made 62.5% of his shots from the field. Johnell Davis emerged as the face of the team during the NCAA Tournament. The 6’4 Junior guard scored 29 points against Fairleigh Dickinson with 12 rebounds, 5 assists, and 5 steals. Davis averaged 15.4 PPG, 6.8 RPG, and 2.8 assists per game in the Big Dance.
FAU was always going to have a bullseye on their back as they are a new team in the American Athletic Conference this year. Add in their Final Four appearance, and now everybody in the AAC is going to give the Owls their best shot night in and night out.
Dusty May says the weight of expectations won’t be too heavy for the team. He thinks that the new cities and arenas they visit will be enough for them to enjoy this year’s experience instead of living up to last year’s results. The Owls are the betting favorite to win the AAC this season.
2. Gonzaga Bulldogs
First, program legend Drew Timme has moved on from college basketball. Fans will have to get used to watching Gonzaga Basketball without the big man. He brought swag, toughness, and dependability as the #1 scoring option for multiple years in the offensive system.
Head Coach Mark Few attempts to replace some of Timme’s production through the transfer portal. He brings in Wyoming’s Graham Ike. The 6’9 big man didn’t play at all last season due to a right leg injury. However, in 2021-22, Ike was just shy of a 20 PPG, 10 RPG season in a very good Mountain West Conference.
The glaring hole in Gonzaga’s roster last year was that the Bulldogs didn’t have elite guard play. Few went and acquired one in Ryan Nembhard. Ryan is the brother of former Zaga point guard Andrew Nembhard. Ryan Nembhard played an important role in Creigton’s Elite Eight run a season ago. Now, Nembhard could possibly be the most important player in Spokane this season.
Even though the roster doesn’t have a familiar face in it, don’t doubt Few’s ability to coach up the offense. Timme has been in the program since 2020, but Gonzaga has had a Top 25 adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom, in every season since 2015. The Zags have advanced to the second weekend in six of those eight tournaments. Few fetched an elite point guard and a big man to center his schemes around this offseason. Trust the culture here. The Bulldogs will be just fine.
3. Saint Mary’s Gaels
Saint Mary’s earned a share of the West Coast Conference regular season title with Gonzaga in 2022-23. The core of that team returns for this season. Stud freshman point guard Aidan Mahaney is the name to know for the Gaels. Mahaney’s coming out part came against Gonzaga last year when he scored 16 points in the final seven minutes of regulation and overtime.
The two other key returners who played more than 30 minutes per game while scoring at least 10 points per game are Alex Ducas (12.5 PPG, 4.3 RPG) and Center Mitchell Saxen (11.6 PPG, 7.6 RPG). Both Mahaney and Ducas shot the 3-ball north of 40%, too. Saint Mary’s gave UConn their best game of the NCAA Tournament. If it wasn’t for Ducas getting injured, they may have even been able to beat the Huskies. Instead, UConn ran the table and the score up on everybody they played.
This is one of the best preseason rosters Head Coach Randy Bennett has had during this Gonzaga dynasty. The WCC Coaches Poll voted Saint Mary’s as the No. 1 team in the preseason. It is the first time in the last six years that Gonzaga was not picked #1. Can Bennett lead the Gaels to their first Sweet 16 since 2010?
4. San Diego State Aztecs
Placing doubt upon San Diego State was once again proven wrong, and in a big way last season. The Aztecs hit a buzzer-beater to win their Final Four game over FAU and played in the National Championship game. SDSU returns four key contributors from their eight-man rotation last season.
The Mountain West Conference is won with good defense, and it’s hard to find a better, consistently good defensive program than SDSU. Head Coach Brian Dutcher has had a top-30 defense, per KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric, in 13 of the last 17 seasons. The Aztecs have been ranked in the top 10 in seven of those seasons, including three of the last four and six of the last 10.
San Diego State’s backcourt could be really good this season. Darrion Trammell (9.8 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 2.9 APG) and Lamont Butler (8.8 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 3.2 APG) return, and Dutcher adds Reese Waters from USC via the transfer portal. In a historically elite defensive program, Waters can potentially be one of the Aztecs’ best pure scorers in recent memory.
5. New Mexico Lobos
In 2022-23, the last undefeated team standing wasn’t UConn, Purdue, Duke, Kansas, or Arizona… it was New Mexico. The Lobo’s backcourt is outstanding with Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn Jr. Jaelen is the son of Eddie House. Jamal Mashburn Jr. is the son of Jamal Mashburn, who played for Richard’s father (Rick) back in his hay day at Kentucky.
Head Coach Richard Pitino brings in some high-quality transfers to fill in some of the holes from pieces leaving last year’s squad. Nelly Junior Joseph, Mustapha Amzil, and Isaac Mushila all come in from winning programs. Nelly was the MAAC Player of the Year last year for Rick Pitino’s Iona Gaels. He will do just fine replacing Morris Udeze’s production from last year. Pedigree and talent just oozes from this roster.
The one weakness for Pitino at New Mexico so far has been on the defensive end. During his first year, the Lobos were 243rd in KenPom’s defensive efficiency. They finished 120th last year. It was still 8th out of 11 teams in the Mountain West, but still a massive improvement compared to Pitino’s first season in Albuquerque.
6. Memphis Tigers
Head Coach Penny Hardaway has won at least 20 games in all five seasons he’s been at the helm. Every year, Hardaway has reloaded his roster with talent through the Transfer Portal. The entire starting five will be new for Memphis. However, the projected five starters are all seniors who played at least 21 minutes a game at their previous destination last year.
Most notably, point guard Jahvon Quinerly transfers into Memphis from Alabama. Quinerly is a talented 5th-year senior who shot 40% from the floor and 35.7% from 3-point range a season ago. Wichita State transfer JayKwon Walton will create a deadly shooting pair with Quinerly. Walton played 32 minutes a game in the American Athletic Conference a season ago. He is a 6’7 wing that is deadshot from anywhere on the floor (53.5 FG%, 40 3PT%).
Although Hardaway has had very good winning seasons, every team has underachieved. With all the talent the Tigers have had year in and year out, they still have not made the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament yet. Look no further than Memphis’ turnover margins over the last three seasons.
The Tigers have ranked 351st, 308th, and 331st in turnover rate in the last three seasons, respectively. Although the team looks amazing on paper once again, the program still hasn’t climbed that postseason hurdle with Penny yet. Add in an extremely tough non-conference schedule, and with all of their new pieces, it may take some time to gel together, and a slow start could be imminent.
7. Boise State Broncos
Tyson Degenhart, Max Rice, and Chibuzo Agbo all returned from an NCAA Tournament team last year. Degenhart has true national breakout potential this season. He can make reads out of dribble handoffs. Degenhart is great in the mid-post and can also knock down triples. The 6’8 forward put up career highs in points, rebounds, and assists last year while playing out of position at the 5.
Boise State turns to the Transfer Portal to give them a true center and to replace their point guard. If it goes wrong, that can be nerving. Those two important incoming transfers for the Broncos are Cam Martin and Roddie Anderson. Martin transfers in from Kansas to play the 5.
This is definitely a plus defensively because now Degenhart won’t have to defend other team’s centers. Roddie Anderson is taking a big step up in leagues to play the point from the Big West to the Mountain West. He’ll have to take on more of a distributor role than a do-everything guard like he was at UC San Diego.
The Mountain West Conference is won with good defense. Recently, Head Coach Leon Rice and the Broncos have been very good on that side of the court. Boise State has finished top-three in the league in defensive efficiency in seven of the past nine seasons, and they ranked top-30 nationally in ’22 and ’23 on KenPom.
8. Dayton Flyers
Dayton is the slam dunk pick to win the Atlantic 10 this season. Head Coach Anthony Grant is now in his 7th season, and he returns four of his top six scorers from last season. The entire projected starting five is made up of Juniors who all played at least 29 minutes a game in 2022-23.
The Flyers have an insanely good point guard – center duo. Malachi Smith averaged 5.6 assists a game while shooting 38.3% from beyond the arc last season. Da’Ron Holmes has the potential to be one of the best centers in the nation. This entire team revolves around Holmes on both sides of the floor.
Even though the Flyers are one of the best mid-major programs in the country, Dayton is in the middle of a six-year NCAA Tournament drought. Grant’s 2019-20 squad would have had at least a 2-seed if it wasn’t for Covid canceling that year’s tourney. Dayton Arena is one of the best home court environments in the country. I think that the homecourt environment and their fanbase aid them to an NCAA Tournament appearance and an overall tremendous season.
9. Yale Bulldogs
Yale returns 75.1% of its minutes and 74.7% of its scoring from last season. The Bulldogs return four double-digit scorers from a season ago. Senior big man Matt Knowling will be the go-to option on the offensive side of the ball, with August Mahoney and John Poulakidas on the wings shooting 46.7% and 40.1% from three, respectively, and both of them averaged double digits last year. Lastly, their point guard, Bez Mbeng, averaged 10.5 PPG with 3 assists and 4 boards.
Last year, the Bulldogs won the regular season, but because of the rotating Ivy League Tournament host sites, by the luck of the draw, Yale had to face Princeton inside the Tigers home gym for the Ivy League auto-bid last year. Yale lost.
With that driving James Jones’ team this season, I think Yale will win the Ivy League Tournament. It will be played at Columbia this year, and it’s not a bold prediction to say that the Lions won’t be in the 4-team league tourney to be able to host a game against Yale. I think the Bulldogs win it and go to the Big Dance this year.
10. Drake Bulldogs
Drake loses their entire backcourt from last season. But Head Coach Darian DeVries’ son, Tucker, was The Valley’s player of the year last season. Tucker is back, and Darian attempts to retool the backcourt around him through the portal. DeVries has been there and done that before during his tenure at Drake.
The three new incoming guards are Kyron Gibson from UT Arlington, Atin Wright from Cal State Northridge, who put up 16.7 PPG there, and Ethan Roberts from Army. Keep a close eye on Gibson, who will head the point. Gibson had almost 4 dimes a game last year with 11 points per game, and he shot the 3ball at 36% last season.
The Bulldogs lost a lot of offensive production from a season ago. But Drake should still be considered the frontrunner in the Missouri Valley Conference based on the winning pedigree and culture Coach DeVries has instilled.
The College Basketball Experience
For more analysis, entertainment, and college basketball predictions, make sure you turn into The College Basketball Experience. Colby Dant, Ryan McIntyre, Noah Bieniek, and the rest of the TCE family go live on YouTube every night during the season, picking every single Division I basketball game against the spread.
