Well, this is definitely not the World Series everyone predicted. The Arizona Diamondback literally had the longest odds to win the World Series going into the playoffs. Now they’re just four wins away from winning it all. Now, The Texas Rangers will host the Arizona Diamondbacks to start the 2023 MLB World Series in a best-of-seven series starting Friday, October 27th. Here are my World Series Game 1 preview and predictions!
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Rangers vs Diamondbacks World Series Game 1 Preview & Predictions
Rangers vs. Diamondbacks Game Information & Odds
When: Friday, October 27, 2023, at 8:03 PM ET
Where: Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas
How to Watch on TV: FOX
Pitching Matchups
Texas Rangers: Nathan Eovaldi
Post Season: 4-0, 2.42 ERA, 26.0 IP, 28 K, 4 BB, 0.96 WHIP
Regular Season: 12-5, 3.63 ERA, 144.0 IP, 132 K, 47 BB, 1.14 WHIP
Arizona Diamondbacks: Zac Gallen
Post Season: 2-2, 5.24 ERA, 22.1 IP, 13 K, 9 BB, 1.48 WHIP
Regular Season: 17-9, 3.47 ERA, 210.0 IP, 220 K, 47 BB, 1.12 WHIP
This World Series will definitely not feature the best pitching staffs. During the regular season, they were both in the middle third of the league. By ERA, they were both below average during the regular season. Even in the postseason, the Arizona pitching staff was third in ERA, and Texas was fifth.
As for Game 1, the Rangers will trout out Nathan Eovaldi, and the Diamondbacks will throw Zac Gallen. In my opinion, Nathan Eovaldi has been one of the best pitchers in the postseason thus far, while Gallen has struggled in his last two starts. The Rangers have won all four of Eovaldi’s starts, only allowing seven runs in 26 innings.
Gallen has lost his last two starts and has given up at least two or more runs in every start this postseason, and walks are also a concern for me. As a whole, both teams have two starting pitchers that have been solid this postseason. Montgomery and Eovaldi for the Rangers; Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly for the Diamondbacks. After that, I would give the slight edge to the Rangers with them having Max Scherzer over the rookie Brandon Pfaadt.
But when it comes to the bullpens, I actually would give the edge to the Diamondbacks. They won’t have the velocity edge, but they do have depth over the Rangers. I like the trio of Paul Sewald, Kevin Ginkel, and Ryan Thompson.
Keys To the Game
The Arizona Diamondbacks have been underdogs and counted out in every series, and even here in the World Series, they’re counted out. But this Diamondback team is different. There is no quit in them, and you could never count them out because they will always find a way to battle.
My one worry is if this game turns into a shootout because the Diamondbacks aren’t built to win those types of games. They need to limit the bats of the Rangers and be aggressive on the base paths when they get on. Also, whenever the Diamondbacks or Rangers have runners in scoring position, they need to be able to get them home. The Phillies struggled mightily with that, and that is why they got sent home.
Rangers vs. Diamondbacks Prediction
For Game 1, the Rangers are betting favorites being at home. But I’m not looking at a side here for game 1. Instead, I’m going to attack the total and bet the over 8. In my model, my numbers made the total an 8.9, so even at an 8.5, I would still take the over.
The Rangers seven-game series between the Astros were all high-scoring games. Six of the seven games have gone over this total. Rangers are coming into this World Series, averaging 5.5 runs per game in their last seven games.
While the Diamondbacks have been involved in a bunch of tight, low-scoring games, both bullpens have been used up recently since both teams were in a tough seven-game series. I think once both starters are out of the game, we’ll see more runs and get over this total.
The Pick: Over 8 Runs
Player Prop
As for a player prop that I think has some value here in game 1 is a pitcher prop. I’m going to strikeout market for Zac Gallen and take the under 4.5 strikeouts here in game 1. In Gallen’s four starts this postseason, he has yet to go over this number. The Rangers have a very aggressive lineup, and if they’re able to get to Gallen early, he might not even last long. At -130, I think this is a good bet. Give me the under 4.5 K’s for Zac Gallen.
The Pick: Under 4.5 Strikeouts
