Torn on which way to lean on the games this weekend? Want to go less with your gut and more with statistics? We break down five games where you can take a look at NFL Week 7 trends to bet and stats to back! Let’s dive into the numbers, look at the historical data, and see what situations are relevant this week. How do the Steelers perform as home dogs? Does an overtime game affect the next game?
We’ll look at all this stuff and more! Make sure to check back each week as we keep track of betting the trends record, as well as give new trends and games to bet! In last week’s article, the trends to bet came through as we went a 3-2. That brings our two-week record to 8-2! Let’s keep on the right side of the trends and keep winning money. This week, the trends point to some controversial picks.
2023 NFL Week 7 Trends To Bet and Stats To Back
Cleveland Browns (-2) @ Indianapolis Colts: Let down Spot For Browns After Upset?
Cleveland is coming off a huge upset over the San Francisco 49ers. In the game, their defense stepped up, and PJ Walker did enough to run the offense while Watson was out again. The Colts, on the other hand, got beat up by division rival Jacksonville. Anthony Richardson could be out for the season, and Gardner Minshew will have to do better than he played last week. What do the NFL Week 7 trends to bet say?
First, the Colts seem to have success when returning home after playing Jacksonville. In the last ten games, they’re 9-1 against the spread (ATS) when playing at home after a game against the Jags. They’ll also be pulling for Watson to make his return to the Browns. The Colts are 6-1 ATS all-time against Watson.
I know you’re thinking the Browns defense will be too much for Minshew Mania. However, the Colts are extremely efficient against elite defensive teams. They’re 20-5 ATS when playing defenses that are considered top-10.
The Browns have just as much working against them. When they’re road favorites of seven points or less, they’re 2-8 ATS. As a road favorite of any margin, in the last fifteen games, they’re 3-11-1 ATS.
They’re also 3-12 ATS after a straight up win. While the Browns showed up big in the game last week versus the NFC, they’re 8-17 ATS on the road against the AFC in the last 25. Another ironic trend is that the Browns are 4-11 ATS against defenses that are considered poor passing defenses. The Colts are ranked 23rd in passing yards allowed per game.
The Pick: Colts (+2)
Buffalo Bills (-9) @ New England Patriots: Stick A Fork In The Patriots?
Let’s be honest. The Patriots have looked horrible the past three weeks. Sure, they looked a little more competitive last week, but they couldn’t overcome the mistakes. This may be the least disciplined Bill Belichick-coached team we’ve ever seen. Now, they have a division matchup against the Buffalo Bills, who almost got upset by the Giants. Are there any NFL Week 7 trends to bet that help us lean toward the Patriots?
The short answer is no. Mac Jones is 1-9 ATS in the last 10. They’re also 2-8 against the spread against Josh Allen. When they play big play passing teams, they’re 2-8 ATS as well. The Bills are definitely a big-play passing team. They’re 1-6 ATS against Buffalo at home and 0-7 in the last seven against teams with a winning record. Nothing about the Patriots last handful of games has been pretty.
The Bills are also 6-0-1 ATS on the road before their opponent plays the Dolphins and 11-3-1 before their opponent is playing Miami in the last 15. They’re also 8-2 against an opponent that just played the Raiders. Josh Allen and the Bills are 6-1 versus New England at Gillette Stadium.
The Bills are also really good at bouncing back after a game with a poor turnover margin of -2 or worse. In fact, they’re 8-2 ATS. They also beat up on bad teams, as they’re 49-32-5 in the last 86 road games against opponents that just lost.
The Pick: Bills (-9)
Green Bay Packers (-1) @ Denver Broncos: Pack Bounce Back?
The Packers lost a disappointing game in Week 5 to the Raiders before heading into their bye last week. The Broncos, on the other hand, continued to be on the losing side of the games after they played the Chiefs. Even though the Broncos get a mini-bye after a Thursday night game, they won’t be as fresh as the Packers, who have had two weeks to prep for them. So what do our NFL Week 7 trends to bet say we should do?
While the Broncos are decent after playing on a Thursday night, they’ve been really bad this year. Payton is 0-5-1 ATS so far this year. The push may have actually been a loss as well, depending on when the bet was placed. Wilson is 1-6 in the last seven games at home as well. This team just hasn’t performed well at all. However, they are playing a team with a losing record. Don’t expect that to help, though. The Broncos are 32-46 ATS playing teams with a losing record in Denver.
Flipping over to the Packers side of things, they’re 6-0-1 against Russell Wilson. I know this is a different Packers team than the one Aaron Rodgers led. Still, the Packers play Wilson tough. The Packers are also 11-4 ATS in the last 15 when they have more than six days of rest, and they’re 14-5 ATS after playing on a Monday.
The Packers have also historically matched up well against the AFC West. They’re 16-6 ATS in the last 22. They’re 27-18 in October and 6-2 ATS when playing an opponent that will play Kansas City the following week.
The Pick: Packers (-1)
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (-7.5): Can Cardinals Stay Feisty?
Both of these teams are coming off of losses. The Cardinals had a big loss against the Rams. The Seahawks lost in a game they should have won against the Bengals but just made too many mistakes. Now, as more than touchdown favorites, do the NFL Week 7 trends to bet say we should ride with the Seahawks? Or will the Cardinals go back to being feisty as they were to start the year? The Cardinals are 3-3 ATS this year, the Seahawks are 3-2.
For some reason, when the Seahawks play an opponent that just played the Rams, they don’t do so well. In fact, they’re 3-10 ATS in the last 13 home games against opponents coming off a game with the Rams. They also have not played well against Arizona in Seattle. They’re 3-7 in the last ten home games against the Cardinals. As good as Pete Carroll is as a coach, he hasn’t been great at covering spreads in October in Seattle.
They’re 14-24 in the last 38 home games in October. That’s dating back almost ten years! Finally, Carroll is becoming one of the coaches to back as a dog, but not a home favorite. They’re 3-7 as a home favorite in the last 10.
The Cardinals, on the other hand, have some nice trends backing them. They’re 8-1-1 ATS on the road after playing the Rams. The Cardinals are also 6-1 in the last seven games that they face an opponent that just played the Bengals. They’re 6-1 ATS when revenging a loss to Seattle. They’re also 5-2 ATS against opponents that are getting ready to face the Browns. The Cardinals are 10-5 ATS when on a losing streak of three or more games like they are on now.
The Pick: It feels gross, but the trends say to Take the Cardinals (+7.5)
San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) @ Minnesota Vikings: A Tale As Old As Time – Fade Kirk In Prime
The Vikings win their first game post-Justin Jefferson injury against the Bears, and the 49ers get upset by the Browns. It was a wild week for both, as the Vikings were in a nail-biter in the second half against rookie Tyson Bagent out of Shepherd University. The 49ers missed a game-winning field goal and saw Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams, and Deebo Samuel leave the game. They could be without all three, but what do the NFL Week 7 trends to bet say we should do?
The 49ers are 8-2 ATS on the road on Monday night. They’re also dominating the NFC, as they’re 20-5 against NFC teams in the last 25 games. They’re 7-0 as seven-point favorites or less. You’ll remember I mentioned that last week, as they were only 5.5-point favorites when I wrote the article. After it was announced Watson was out, they jumped to ten-point favorites. They’re also 7-2 ATS in the last ten when facing an opponent that just won their game.
The Vikings haven’t been doing as well covering. They’re 1-6 ATS when facing NFC teams at home. They’re also 0-6-1 ATS when facing teams that just played against the Browns. While O’Connell had such a good year last year, they’re still 1-6 ATS at home in the last seven games. The Vikings are also 4-11 ATS after a straight-up win. It’s prime-time Kirk Cousins, an opportunistic 49ers’ defense, and the 49ers have won and covered the last two games against the Vikings.
The Pick: 49ers (-6.5)
