The NASCAR Cup Series South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway will take place Sunday, October 15th at 2:30 PM ET. This race will serve as the first race for the Round of 8 in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. If any of the eight drivers remaining in the playoffs wins at Las Vegas, their ticket is punched for the championship four at Phoenix Raceway. Here are the official odds and my South Point 400 Best Bets!
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NASCAR Cup Series South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway Odds and Best Bets
With only four races left in the season, the battle for the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series championship is heating up. Of the eight remaining drivers, only two former champions remain in Martin Truex Jr and Kyle Larson. Toyota is the dominating manufacturer, with four Toyota drivers remaining in the playoffs compared to two Fords and two Chevrolets.
Last season, Joey Logano would win this race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, securing his spot in the championship four, where he would go on to win his second career title. In the spring race here in March, it was William Byron who captured the win in dominating fashion as he led 176 of the 271 laps on the day.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Kyle Larson +450
William Byron +550
Denny Hamlin +550
Tyler Reddick +750
Martin Truex Jr +750
Christopher Bell +1000
Ryan Blaney +1300
Kyle Busch +1300
Chase Elliott +1500
Chris Buescher +1600
Brad Keselowski +1600
Bubba Wallace +2000
Ross Chastain +2200
Ty Gibbs +2800
Joey Logano +3000
Alex Bowman +3500
Kevin Harvick +4000
Erik Jones +4500
Daniel Suarez +8000
Ricky Stenhouse +150000
Chase Briscoe +15000
Carson Hocevar +15000
Aric Almirola +15000
Michael McDowell +25000
Austin Dillon +25000
AJ Allmendinger +25000
Ryan Preece +40000
Justin Haley +40000
Harrison Burton +40000
Austin Cindric +40000
Corey Lajoie +50000
Ty Dillion +100000
Todd Gilliland +100000
JJ Yeley +100000
Brennan Poole +100000
BJ McLeod +100000
Bubba Wallace Top 10 (-125) and Top 5 Finish (+275)
Toyota has been really good this season on intermediate tracks. 23XI has been good on intermediate tracks, and Bubba Wallace has been really good on intermediate tracks. -125 for a top 10 finish is a steal, and his top five price is great as well. Wallace led 111 laps and finished third at the most recent comparable track at Texas.
At Kansas, he was running second place when his tire blew out. At Darlington, Bubba finished seventh. Wallace was fourth place at Charlotte, the Kansas spring race, and here at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in the spring.
Denny Hamlin Top 5 Finish (-115)
Sticking with the Toyota train and the co-owner of 23XI, Denny Hamlin, has also been great at this track type. At Texas, Hamlin finished fifth, while at Kansas, Hamlin was running away with the lead before a late caution allowed his 23XI driver Tyler Reddick to steal the win away. At Darlington, Hamlin led 177 laps before a loose wheel issue cost him a good finish. Hamlin scored a third place at Michigan and Nashville while collecting wins at Pocono and the Kansas spring race.
Bubba Wallace Over Brad Keselowski (-130)
All the reasons Wallace should be good this weekend are laid out above. For Brad Keselowski, he’s had a great season but hasn’t quite had the speed on intermediates that Wallace has had. Keselowski has had finishes of seventh at Texas, ninth at Kansas, and fourth at Michigan.
He’s also had runs of 19th at Kansas Spring and Charlotte, along with 16th at Pocono. Ford, as a manufacturer and Keselowski’s #6 team, has not shown the ability to lead laps and have the potential to win at intermediate tracks like Wallace and his #23 Toyota.
2023 High-Speed 1.5-Mile Track Total Speed Rankings
For more of a micro perspective into each race, check out our Total Speed Ranking Index. https://t.co/RKTiYpYTD1 pic.twitter.com/ZYx3vHz8wT
— Ryan (@ifantasyrace) October 9, 2023
Denny Hamlin to Win (+550)
Last year, Denny Hamlin made it to the round of eight and scored finishes of fifth, seventh, and fifth, respectively, in the round. That was not good enough to advance to the final four, as Hamlin got “hail meloned” by Ross Chastain at Martinsville. The easy fix for that is to win this race. Hamlin and the team know this is likely their best shot to win and get ready to fight for Hamlin’s first NASCAR Cup Series championship. Expect Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota to show up with a lot of speed and be the first car to cross the line at the end of the day.
Bubba Wallace to Win (+2000)
It’s Las Vegas, and if you haven’t noticed yet, all chips are on Bubba Wallace 5his weekend. Wallace is a threat to win on any intermediate track, and at 20/1, he’s a great insurance policy if his car owner, Denny Hamlin, can’t get it done. Wallace led 111 laps at Texas and last year won the playoff race at Kansas. That #23 car is going to be in the mix, and a long-shot ticket on him is worth it.
