NFL Week 4 is in the books, and our referee best bets went 1-2. NFL Week 5 has a few intriguing matchups for the NFL Week 5 Referee Report. I always put this out as a disclaimer: the NFL Referee Report is not something that you should bet blindly on. Instead, it should be an extra data point in your handicapping. Let’s dive into this week’s report!
CHECK OUT OUR FREE NFL PICKS HERE!
NFL Week 5 Referee Betting Stats and Trends
Scott Novak
I mentioned Scott Novak on the report last week, where he was assigned to officiate the Week 4 matchup between the New England Patriots and the Dallas Cowboys. Even Novak could not help the Patriots in that game, as the Cowboys took care of business in a convincing 38-3 victory. However, I have to mention Novak again for NFL Week 5.
Despite last week’s results, Novak continues to be a favorable referee for the road teams. In fact, this season, the road teams are 3-1 SU and 3-1 Against The Spread (ATS).
Furthermore, over the last five seasons that Scott Novak has officiated, the road teams who are underdogs are 26-10 ATS (72.2%). This week, Scott Novak is assigned to officiate the Week 5 Thursday Night Football game between the Chicago Bears and the Washington Commanders.
Best Bet: Bears +6
Carl Cheffers
I highlighted Carl Cheffers last week as a referee who trends towards home underdogs. Last week, Cheffers officiated the game between the Broncos and the Bears. The Bears led for most of the game and even had a 21-point lead. However, the Broncos came back and won the game 31-28. More importantly, the Bears covered the spread of 3.5 as a home underdog.
Entering Week 5, home underdogs are 11-4-1 (73.3%) ATS over the last five seasons when Cheffers is the lead official. In Week 5, Cheffers is assigned to the AFC North battle between the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Best Bet: Steelers +4
John Hussey
For those of you who are total bettors, John Hussey’s betting trends and stats are the ones to mention. Over the last two seasons, games officiated by John Hussey are 13-6 (68.4%) to the Under. In the three games Hussey has officiated this season, the under is a perfect 3-0. In NFL Week 5, Hussey is assigned to officiate the much-anticipated matchup between the New York Jets and the Denver Broncos.
Best Bet: Jets/Broncos Under 43.5
