The opening night of the 2023/24 NBA season is creeping up on us – October 24th is less than a month away, according to my calendar. With the offseason’s biggest trade chip, Portland’s Damian Lillard, having been dealt a few hours ago to the Milwaukee Bucks, we have a better idea of what teams’ rosters are going to look like heading into the season. And there are some NBA win totals out there ripe for the picking. Here are a few.
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NBA Win Totals to Exploit for 2023/24
Denver Nuggets Under 53.5 Wins (-105)
We’ll start things off by fading the defending champions, the Denver Nuggets. I think 53.5 wins are just too high of a bar for this team. They didn’t even clear this total last season – they went 53-29. And the franchise hasn’t won 54 games or more since 2012/13, so history is on our side on the Under.
Plus, I think they’ll really miss superb sixth man Bruce Brown, who is now plying his trade with the Indiana Pacers, as well as the subtraction of Jeff Green, to a lesser extent. Are they really going to put the pedal to the metal during the regular season after a grueling playoff run last season, or are they going to win just enough games to put them in a good position entering the playoffs?
Los Angeles Lakers Under 47.5 Wins (-110)
Much ado has been made about the Los Angeles Lakers’ offseason moves, but let’s be serious. They added some role players. Gabe Vincent, Christian Wood, Taurean Prince, and Jaxson Hayes are fine depth pieces, but does it make the Lakers five games better than last season’s 43 wins?
I think not. LeBron James will be turning 39 at the end of 2023, and he’s missed 27 and 26 games over the past two seasons. And if you ever get 60 games out of Anthony Davis, you’re lucky. He misses 25+ games a season. The guaranteed prolonged absences of their two stars means the Lakers aren’t getting to 48 wins this season. Plus, LeBron knows the regular season is only a warmup for the playoffs.
New York Knicks Over 45.5 Wins (+100)
I don’t really get why the New York Knicks’ projected win total is only 45.5, but I’ll gladly take the Over here for plus money. The Knicks won 48 games last season, and I would argue that their roster is even better this year with the additions of Josh Hart (acquired late last season) and Donte DiVincenzo.
Plus, the core of this team are all in – or entering – their prime. Is the Eastern Conference that much better this season that the Knicks will win three fewer games than they did last year? I’m betting not. In their division alone, the Boston Celtics are the only team other than the Knicks, who don’t have huge question marks hanging over their season. Over 45.5 wins, please.
Toronto Raptors Over 36.5 Wins (+100)
Another NBA win total that I like the Over on (for plus money, once again) is the Toronto Raptors line of 36.5 wins. There is a lot of smoke in Toronto in regard to potential trades, but that doesn’t mean there is a fire. And, as mentioned, Damian Lillard – who the Raptors were rumored to be in the market for, was dealt a few hours ago – not to Toronto. Raptors’ president Masai Ujiri isn’t the type to blow up rosters, so I don’t think there’s going to be a fire sale in Toronto this season. And this roster is way better than 36.5 wins. Over it is.
