In the final September slate of games, soccer continues in England with another awesome schedule this weekend for Premier League Matchday 7.
There are eight fixtures on a busy Saturday, with the headliner of the bunch being Liverpool’s trip to Tottenham Hotspur. Brighton and Hove Albion kicks off the morning at Aston Villa, and Arsenal and both Manchester clubs are also in action on the day.
Meanwhile, Nottingham Forest hosts Brentford for the lone game on Sunday. A heated London derby closes out the weekend in Fulham’s match against Chelsea for Monday Night Football.
My plays may not be on the biggest games of the schedule, but I do have two best bets that I feel have great betting value.
Premier League Matchday 7 Preview & Best Bets
Aston Villa vs. Brighton – This game could go either way. Regardless of who wins, I would expect goals for both sides.
Newcastle vs. Burnley – I don’t like betting on teams who put up a historic performance the week before. However, I struggle to see how Burnley competes here.
Everton vs. Luton Town – Under 2.5 Goals (-121) BetRivers
In our EPL Matchday 5 preview, I gave out the over in Luton’s trip to Fulham, which ended with just one goal. The Hatters played that match with either five or six defenders and just sat back for a draw.
The Cottagers didn’t have the attacking talent to break down the low block, and I see Everton having the same trouble. This same play has hit in all three of the Toffees’ home games.
Meanwhile, this has also been a profitable bet under Sean Dyche. In his 12 matches as manager at Goodison Park, there have been less than three goals in nine of those fixtures.
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs. Manchester City – City to Win to Nil almost seems obvious. However, Wolves have put up decent offensive numbers so far.
Bournemouth vs. Arsenal – This is a tricky trip following the North London Derby. The odds seem about right to me.
West Ham vs. Sheffield United – West Ham typically hammers the lesser opponents at home under David Moyes. Sheffield United would fall into that category.
Tottenham vs. Liverpool – If you love goals, this is the game for you. I don’t like betting on high totals, but this one may not be high enough.
Nottingham Forest vs. Brentford – Under 2.5 Goals (-135) DraftKings
This is just not a very good Forest attack. After the first six matches, Steve Cooper’s side ranks in the Bottom 5 in multiple offensive categories, according to fbref.com, including expected goals per 90 minutes (1.04), big chances per match (1.167), and shots per game (10.33).
Brentford’s offense has always been a downgrade away from home. In fact, the Bees have averaged 1.562 xG per home match since returning to the EPL in the 2021-22 campaign.
On the road, this average drops to 1.203. The numbers are skewed this year due to Brentford dominating a Fulham side that was down a man for two goals.
I hate to give out two unders in my Premier League Matchday 7 preview, but I don’t see either being very expansive or free-flowing in attack.
Fulham vs. Chelsea – The Blues have dominated this fixture over the years. They are due to finally finish chances, and the Cottagers are due to allow goals. However, I need to see Chelsea score before I back them on the road.