Following the season’s first international break, soccer returns in England for Matchday 5 in the Premier League, with games spanning all over the weekend.
The headliner of the slate is Brighton’s trip to Manchester United, which is also the same day the league leaders Manchester City play at a surging West Ham side. Chelsea and Arsenal are both on the road on Sunday before Nottingham Forest hosts Burnley to cap off the weekend with Monday Night Football.
I’ll give you a quick thought on all of the fixtures in the English top flight, and I’ll also provide my favorite bets on the card below. Games after an international break can be tricky, but I do like the betting value in the EPL this weekend.
Premier League Matchday 5 Preview and Best Bets
Wolverhampton Wanders vs. Liverpool – Do I want to lay over -200 odds on the road with Liverpool? I do not, but I also do not want to bet on Wolves in this spot either.
Fulham vs. Luton Town – Over 2.5 Goals (-117) – FanDuel
This may not be the first match everyone turns on, but I will fade both defenses for my first best bet. I’m taking the total to fly over 2.5 goals at -117 odds at FanDuel.
Fulham has allowed 2.92 expected goals and four big scoring chances per 90 minutes so far, according to fbref.com. Luton joins the Cottagers as the worst defenses in the league.
The newly-promoted club is giving up 2.41 xG and 4.333 big chances per game. Once you add in the fact that 68 percent of Fulham’s home matches went over this same total last season, I really do love the odds here for it to happen again.
West Ham vs. Man City – The Hammers, at a spread of +1 or better, almost made the card. However, I’m not fully buying their hype yet.
Tottenham Hotspur vs. Sheffield United – These odds feel spot on to me on both the side and total.
Manchester United vs. Brighton – This game screams goals. The total flying over three goals would have been my third best bet.
Aston Villa vs. Crystal Palace – No value here. Palace has been getting steamed right before kick-off. This is something to keep in mind if you want to back Villa.
Everton vs. Arsenal – This is a tricky spot for the Gunners. The extra time off may have given them better health before this one.
Bournemouth vs. Chelsea – Chelsea doesn’t deserve to be this big of a favorite on the road. However, I just don’t really know what to make of Bournemouth under the new manager.
Newcastle vs. Brentford – For pure entertainment value, this should be a fantastic match. I’m staying away from it with my money, though.
Nottingham Forest vs Burnley – Forest ML (+120) – FanDuel
We close out the Premier League Matchday 5 article with my second best bet. I can’t look away from Forest getting plus money at home against Burnley.
Manager Steve Cooper’s side was very solid at home last season. The Reds dropped just one game and won five of nine at The City Ground against teams that finished in the bottom half of the table.
Meanwhile, Burnley has really struggled, owning a -4.3 xGDiff through three games and allowing an average of 3.333 big chances per match. The Clarets have been lucky enough to be at home in those fixtures, and I don’t see it getting any better in their first road match.