In the return of European competitions in soccer, Champions League Matchday 1 kicks off this week with a full slate of matches across Tuesday and Wednesday.
Barcelona and Manchester City open their UCL campaigns on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the headliner of the day is Newcastle United’s trip to Italy to take on AC Milan.
On Wednesday, my favorite game of the week is between two giants, Bayern Munich and Manchester United in Germany. Arsenal makes its long-awaited return to the competition on the same day, and Real Madrid plays Union Berlin to close out the opening slate.
There is always excitement when the best club tournament in the world returns. So, let’s dive into the action for our best bets for the Champions League Matchday 1.
Champions League Matchday 1 – Best Bets
Bayern Munich vs. Manchester United – Bayern Munich HT/FT (+130) FanDuel
If you read my UCL preview, you know my feelings about Bayern’s chances of winning Group A. I specifically loved this matchup to start the tournament, and I can’t look away from fading United on the road here.
Going back to last season, the Red Devils really struggled away from home against top competition. If you combine the knockout rounds of the Europa League and games against teams who finished in the Top 6 of the Premier League, United posted a -9.6 xGDiff, according to fbref.com.
This is also the same team that allowed 2.413 expected goals per 90 minutes in those fixtures, which is not a good sign against this potent Bayern Munich attack.
The German side has scored multiple goals in four of five matches this season, and I like Bayern to control this game from the start.
Real Sociedad vs. Inter Milan – Under 2.5 Goals (-122) FanDuel
I do like the chances of my first best bet being a high-scoring affair. However, my second play of the Champions League Matchday 1 preview is a match where I don’t see many scoring opportunities.
If you start with Real Sociedad, the Spanish club is used to playing in cagey matches. This same bet would have cashed in three of Sociedad’s four games in La Liga this season.
Meanwhile, there were less than three goals in 80 percent of home fixtures against teams that finished in the Top 6 of the Spanish top flight last campaign. It was also a winning ticket at the Reale Arena in the Europa League against Roma and Manchester United.
As for Inter Milan, you saw the typical trends for an Italian club in the UCL last season. In the six games in the Champions League away from home, only one of those finished with more than 2.5 goals.
I also like how the defense has performed so far this year, holding opponents to just 0.6 expected goals and one big scoring chance per match.
Inter was a lot more potent in attack a year ago after the club failed to replace strikers Edin Džeko and Romelu Lukaku in the summer. The duo combined for 28 goals and 11 assists in all competitions, which could put too much pressure on Lautaro Martínez to carry the offense.
