Every successful fantasy football draft starts out with a plan. You must know which guys you are high on and who you are targeting in each round. Equally as important, but often more difficult, you need to know which players to fade this year. Before every season, there are player situations where the writing is on the wall that they will only bring fantasy disappointment.
Sometimes it just takes some injury knowledge and reading between the lines to clarify those cases. Welcome to my official DO NOT DRAFT list for the 2023 season.
Player injury updates and outlooks are constantly evolving! For the most up-to-date NFL/CFB injury news and analysis, follow me on Twitter @SGPNFootballDoc!
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Top Fantasy Football Players to AVOID Drafting
Breece Hall (RB) New York Jets
Injury: ACL and Meniscus Tear
Injury Date: 10/23/2022
Expected Recovery Timeline: 10-12 months
Time from injury to Week 1, 2023: 320 days (~ 10.5 months)
Players Age: 22
Injury History: None before this. Played every game in college
ADP: RB13, 34 OVR
Injury Update
One of the biggest questions of this offseason is surrounding the health of Jets RB Breece Hall. The second-year RB showed some great flashes last year before suffering a torn ACL in Week 7. This leaves him with right around 10.5 months before Week 1 of the 2023 season to make his return. Typically a player takes around 11 months to return to playing, so it would not be unbelievable for Hall to be available for Week 1.
However, players, especially skill position guys, have a hard time adjusting to the playing speed of the NFL upon their return. Your ACL is a major stabilizing ligament in your knee and critical in a player’s change of direction ability. It can take up to two years before a player can regain their normal movement patterns before their injury. Also, higher lower-body injury rates are associated with players returning from an ACL tear in the first year.
So far, nothing indicates that Hall will be able to step right in and pick up where he left off last season. If you are taking a player in the first three rounds of your draft, you need to be confident they can provide consistent production. With just 26 days until the Jets’ first game, Hall was finally activated off the PUP and returned to practice in a limited role.
Although good news, he returns to an RB room that just added Dalvin Cook in free agency. Both New York and I realize it may take several weeks into the season before Hall can consistently produce in the backfield. Expect more Cook carries early on.
Rashod Bateman (WR) Baltimore Ravens
Injury: Lisfranc Injury
Injury Date: 10/27/2022
Expected Recovery Timeline: 10-12 months
Time from injury to Week 1, 2023: 315 days (~10.5 months)
Players Age: 23
Injury History: 2021 – Groin Injury (5 games)
ADP: WR54, 131 OVR
Injury Update
Baltimore WR Rashod Bateman is another young player on this Top Fantasy Football Players to AVOID Drafting list who’s had trouble staying healthy. Both of his first two years in the league have been cut short due to injuries. Last season, he suffered a Lisfranc injury that required season-ending surgery.
A Lisfranc injury refers to damage to the bones in the midfoot or ligaments that support the midfoot. The midfoot absorbs shock from ground impact and stabilizes the foot on uneven surfaces.
The average return to playtime with a Lisfranc injury is just over 11 months. Bateman is looking at about 10.5 months of recovery time before Week 1, meaning it is not a sure thing he will be 100% to start the season. With this tight of a timeline, he is not able to afford much of a setback, but this is exactly what happened.
He was held out of minicamp by the team and given a cortisone injection in his foot by the team to reduce pain and swelling. After expecting him to be ready for OTAs in June, the team found themselves placing Bateman on the PUP to begin training camp. This allowed fellow WRs Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr. plenty of time to build chemistry with QB Lamar Jackson.
With about four weeks until Week 1, the Ravens WR was finally activated off the PUP and will attempt to ramp up for the season. Unfortunately, a challenging injury to recover from, an off-schedule rehab, and an injury history that does not bolster confidence have me fading Bateman this season.
Trey Lance (QB) San Francisco 49ers
Injury: Ankle Fracture
Injury Date: 9/18/2022
Expected Recovery Timeline: 4-6 months
Time from injury to Week 1, 2023: 354 days (~11.5 months)
Players Age: 23
Injury History: 2021 – Knee Sprain (1 game), Finger Injury (Affected throwing mechanics)
ADP: QB31, 221 OVR
Injury Update
Trey Lance and good news have been two phrases that have not gone together much in his short NFL career. He has dealt with significant injuries his first two years in the league and has not seen much playing time. However, there is a bit of good news for Lance in this Top Fantasy Football Players to AVOID Drafting article. Medically, the 49ers young QB is cleared and ready to go.
The team officially cleared him in March, and he has been a full participant in team activities. His ankle was surgically repaired early in the season last year, and he will have almost a full year of recovery time before Week 1. This is more than enough time for this injury to heal and rehab completely. However, from a fantasy standpoint, my concern for Lance is that he may legitimately be QB3 on his own team.
Medically, I am not concerned about Lance’s ankle heading into the season, BUT his lack of experience and talent is a concern for playing time. The health of 49ers QB Brock Purdy also boosts my confidence in avoiding Trey Lance. Due to having a UCL repair as opposed to a reconstruction (Tommy John surgery), Purdy is on track to be available for Week 1.
Let’s kill this Lance hype train before the season starts this year. Don’t waste a pick on a guy who is more likely to not touch the field this year than be a “breakout” candidate.
Zach Ertz (TE) Arizona Cardinals
Injury: ACL and MCL Tear
Injury Date: 11/13/2022
Expected Recovery Timeline: 10-12 months
Time from injury to Week 1, 2023: 298 days (~10 months)
Players Age: 32
Injury History: LONG… 2015 – Concussion (1 game), 2016 – Rib Dislocation (2 games), 2017 – Hamstring Strain (1 game), Concussion (1 game), 2019 – Lacerated Kidney (1 game), 2020 – High Ankle Sprain (5 games)
ADP: TE28, 225
Injury Update
Cardinals TE Zach Ertz is the old man of the group, which is part of the reason I’m avoiding him this year. Ertz went down with an injury in November last season, suffering ACL and MCL damage in his knee. These ligaments stabilize the knee, and typically, multi-ligament injuries take longer to heal than just ACL tears alone.
Despite the longer recovery time, the Arizona TE is motivated to return quickly, as he is fighting to retain his spot as TE1 on the depth chart. Second-year TE Trey McBride (ADP: TE31) showed some flashes last year and could enjoy some more opportunities early in the season with Ertz on the mend. He was cleared to begin football activities and activated off the PUP just this week.
Although he may be motivated, it is hard to project Ertz to come in and have a major year fantasy-wise. He is an older player with a fairly extensive injury history who will be battling for targets at the TE position. If you are looking to extract value from this Arizona passing attack, I think the much younger and healthier TE Trey McBride is the choice. You can even get him at a cheaper price!
Kadarius Toney (WR) Kansas City Chiefs
Injury: Meniscus Tear
Injury Date: 7/23/2023
Surgery Date: 7/25/2023
Expected Recovery Timeline: 4-6 weeks
Time from injury to Week 1, 2023: 44 days (~6 weeks)
Players Age: 24
Injury History: LONG… 2017 – Shoulder (2 games), 2019 – Shoulder (6 games), 2021 – Hamstring Strain (Training camp), Ankle Sprain (2 games), Quad Strain (4 games), Oblique Injury (3 games), 2022 – Hamstring Strain (6 games)
ADP: WR44, 105 OVR
Injury Update
There are just some players in the league who have so much potential but can’t seem to keep themselves on the field. Kansas City Chiefs WR Karaius Toney is the poster child for this group. As a Florida and Giants fan, I have seen firsthand the amount of talent and potential he has as a player. However, as the age-old saying goes, the best ability is availability.
Toney has had trouble staying off the injury report since college, and this offseason is no different. We did not have to wait long, as at the first practice of training camp, the Chiefs WR injured his knee while fielding punts. He suffered a meniscus tear in his knee, which required surgery. A meniscus tear refers to damage to protective cartilage located on the inside of your knee, and the meniscus acts as a shock absorber to help stabilize the knee.
If a meniscus tear is significant enough to require surgery, there are two options: a meniscus repair or resection. A meniscus resection is the option Toney opted for, and it comes with a shorter recovery time. However, this means the surgeon removed the damaged meniscus from the knee, and the protective cartilage will be gone for good. A typical recovery timeline for a meniscus resection surgery is 4-6 weeks.
With just over six weeks from his surgery to Week 1, there is absolutely a chance Toney returns for the start of the season. However, he will have missed almost all of training camp and will likely find himself right back on an injury report.
Michael Thomas (WR) New Orleans Saints
Injury: Dislocated Toe
Injury Date: 9/25/2022
Expected Recovery Timeline: 6-8 months
Time from injury to Week 1, 2023: 347 days (~11.5 months)
Players Age: 30
Injury History: 2016 – Foot Sprain (1 game), 2020 – High Ankle Sprain (2 games), Hamstring Strain – (2 games), High Ankle Sprain (20 games, including all of the 2021 season)
ADP: WR43, 104 OVR
Injury Update
I wrap up this Top Fantasy Football Players to AVOID Drafting list with a system play. For the past two years, I have been yelling from the rooftops to STAY AWAY from WR Michael Thomas in fantasy. Don’t believe me, here’s proof. Until this point, all Thomas has done is make me a profitable genius for fading him. So it is no surprise that I am again advising you to stay away from the Saints WR.
Thomas even got off to a decent start last year, and the MT truthers were all in my mentions. However, they became VERY quiet after Week 3, considering Thomas has not taken a snap since then. After an ankle injury caused him to miss over 20 games from 2020-2021, Thomas dislocated his second toe and missed 14 games in 2022. He has legitimately not played consistent football since 2019!
The Saints WR tried to rehab his injury initially last season but ultimately required surgery later in the year. This has been a consistent theme for Thomas, who has now lengthened his recovery time for his past two injuries due to questionable decision-making.
On paper, he should have plenty of time to recover from this injury before the season. He returned to practice near the beginning of training camp and reports that he assimilates well. However, I will not fall for this trap as my faith in Thomas’ recovery going smoothly is close to zero. The dude has played just ten games in THREE YEARS! Save yourself the headache.
Thanks for reading! Here is a quick reminder on Fantasy Football relevant suspensions:
Jameson Williams (WR) DET Lions: 6 games – Gambling
Ronald Jones (RB) DAL Cowboys: 2 games – PEDs
Alvin Kamara (RB) NO Saints: 3 games – Fight
D’Wayne Eskridge (RB) SEA Seahawks: 6 games – Domestic Abuse
