On Monday, our plays for the day were hot yet again. Apart from the Guardians falling flat, we were perfect, which included a plus-money pitching prop as well. We’re back at it again with our MLB Picks for August 9th. Come tail along and win with us.
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MLB Picks for August 9th
Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds
Start Time – 12:35 pm EST
Great American Ball Park
Broadcast – ESPN+
Since their hot start, the Marlins have been quite bad. They’re just 3-7 over their last 10. They won last night, but since the All-Star break, they have won two in a row just once and haven’t won three in a row at all. Additionally, Johnny Cueto will be taking the hill for them. He’s appeared in five games for them this year, and they are 0-5 in those games. He’s also allowed eight runs over his last two starts.
Reds starter Graham Ashcraft has only allowed eight earned runs over his last five starts. He’s been solid at home lately, which includes shutting out the Dodgers over six innings last home start. Even given all these trends, the Reds are only -125 at home here.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Tampa Bay Rays
Start Time – 6:40 pm EST
Broadcast – ESPN+
The Rays are going with an opener on Wednesday in Jalen Beeks, which has driven down their price to -155. While I understand that it isn’t an ideal pitching spot for them, they still have the second-best record in the American League and have won six of their last eight. They’re averaging six runs a game over the last four and should cover a couple of hiccups in the starting pitching.
In addition to trusting the Rays, there isn’t much to trust in St. Louis right now. They’ve got the second-worst record in the National League and have lost eight of their last eleven. Over the last four games, they are averaging just three runs a game. To make matters worse, today’s starter, Dakota Hudson, has been ice cold. He’s allowed eight earned in his last 11.1 innings pitched. Rays at -155 is a steal if there is one on Wednesday.
Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles
Start Time – 7:05 pm EST
Broadcast – MLB TV
Christian Javier hasn’t been himself as of late. In his last seven starts, he’s only stayed under three earned runs once (and, to be fair, he gave up two in that game). His strikeout numbers have ticked up, but the cost has been that his walks are also way up. He’s averaging over three a game over his last four – and the Astros have lost three of those games.
The Orioles wheel out their newest acquisition, Jack Flaherty, who lived up to his expectations in his first game with the team. He held the Blue Jays to just four hits and one earned run over six innings while notching eight strikeouts. Add in that the Orioles won seven of nine, and I really like the -120 price you can get on them here.
Prop of the Day – Nick Pivetta o5.5 Strikeouts (-105)
Don’t look now, but Nick Pivetta has actually been pretty prolific when it comes to striking out hitters. He has appeared in seven games since July 1st and has 45 strikeouts in that time. That comes out to 6.42 per outing. Some of those outings are in a piggyback or full-on relief role. He threw just one inning of relief against the Mets, but the numbers are still higher than his total today. The Red Sox could use a starter to get a little deeper, and if they let him do so, he’ll easily hit the over.
If you’d like even more MLB bets for August 9th, be sure to check out the MLB Gambling Podcast. The guys are dropping daily episodes to make you the smartest guy at the bar.