Bradley Sticker is back to break down Vacated Targets in 2023. Everyone in fantasy football looks for those sleepers and values at the WR position. Many fantasy championships come on the back of stud running backs, a top-tier TE, and hits in the mid-rounds on wide receivers. How do the same people tend to hit on the wide receivers year after year? Many analytics should be considered when looking for breakout wide receivers, but they only matter if the opportunity is there.
Enter the vacated targets for each team. Vacated targets can identify what wide receivers can really thrive in their offensive system. Fantasy Football managers should use this as the baseline to add an analytical approach to. When a wide receiver has the base opportunity of targets, you can consider the other analytics to make a sound decision on drafting a high-value mid-to-late round gem.
2023 Vacated Targets to Attack Based on ADP
Vacated Target Leaders
So let’s take a look at the vacated targets for each team, thanks to our friend John Daigle at 4for4.com.
| Team | Vacant Air Yards | Air Yard Percentage | Vacated Targets | Vacated Target Percentage |
| Arizona Cardinals | 1847 | 41.20% | 217 | 34.10% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 1632 | 45.10% | 143 | 35.70% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 1205 | 30.90% | 163 | 35% |
| Buffalo Bills | 942 | 18.50% | 157 | 28.40% |
| Carolina Panthers | 1987 | 62.80% | 212 | 49.60% |
| Chicago Bears | 535 | 16.70% | 81 | 22.50% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 545 | 13.10% | 148 | 24.90% |
| Cleveland Browns | 52 | 1.20% | 58 | 11.40% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 1620 | 36.30% | 197 | 36.10% |
| Denver Broncos | 464 | 9.80% | 160 | 29.50% |
| Detroit Lions | 1297 | 32.20% | 227 | 40.30% |
| Green Bay Packers | 2575 | 58.80% | 258 | 47.70% |
| Houston Texans | 2860 | 69.70% | 357 | 63.90% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 742 | 19.90% | 142 | 24.50% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 1189 | 28.10% | 113 | 19.60% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 1102 | 24.30% | 152 | 24.70% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 2201 | 42.30% | 191 | 34.20% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 681 | 16.40% | 105 | 15.20% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 588 | 15.90% | 114 | 22% |
| Miami Dolphins | 1085 | 20.70% | 120 | 21.30% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 1163 | 24.10% | 199 | 31% |
| New England Patriots | 1753 | 42.60% | 214 | 41.30% |
| New Orleans Saints | 971 | 20.80% | 127 | 25.70% |
| New York Giants | 977 | 30.90% | 127 | 25.90% |
| New York Jets | 1182 | 24.30% | 136 | 23.10% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 138 | 3.20% | 45 | 8.90% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 583 | 13% | 80 | 14.50% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 601 | 17.30% | 77 | 15.20% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 467 | 10.90% | 75 | 13.50% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1646 | 33.50% | 238 | 32.80% |
| Tennessee Titans | 1346 | 40.40% | 199 | 45.60% |
| Washington Commanders | 284 | 6.50% | 65 | 12.20% |
What Does it Mean?
While that table is a lot to decipher, here are the basics. The more vacated targets, the more opportunity one has to break out in their system. The air yards also matter as they can lead to high-value targets down the field. While we could sit here and discuss each and every stat in the table above, I’d rather provide a few mid-to-late-round options for fantasy football based on the vacated targets and average draft position (ADP). Enjoy!
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Jordan Addison – WR – Minnesota Vikings
Typically drafting a rookie wide receiver is not great, but in the case of Jordan Addison, I think you may be in for a surprise. Not only is he coming to a team with 199 vacated targets and over 1000 vacated air yards, but they also didn’t add any other WR, TE, or RB to the roster.
Addison is one of the better route runners and will complement Justin Jefferson very well. His current ADP is WR40, around the likes of Gabe Davis, Cortland Sutton, and Kadarius Toney. I think he will be a great option who could end up with 100 targets in his rookie season.
Juju Smith-Schuster – WR – New England Patriots
Since Juju’s 1600-yard season with the Steelers, he has definitely left fantasy managers hanging. Typically when a player sees three teams in three seasons, that’s not a good sign. I will give Juju a little grace, however. Juju had a pretty solid return to relevance when he caught over 80% of the balls thrown his way and went over 1000 yards on a team that distributed the ball heavily.
He now lands on a team with a really solid and creative offensive play-caller in Bill O’Brien and a pretty solid success rate per Reception Perception. Getting to play in the slot with 214 targets and over 1700 air yards available makes his WR50 ADP seem like a smash.
Zay Jones – WR – Jacksonville Jaguars
While vacated targets are typically used to mark guys that may outperform their ADP, this is a case of the opposite. With the addition of Calvin Ridley and Etienne, able to focus more on pass-catching while Tank Bigsby carries the rock, Zay Jones may be the odd man out.
There are only 113 vacated targets, and Zay provides more of a big play threat that doesn’t demand targets. Currently at WR62 and the third or possibly even fourth option on his team, I’d lean towards many of the other options in this range.
John Metchie – WR – Houston Texans
The Texans have a TON of vacated targets and air yards up for grabs. The team is currently projected to be led by Robert Woods and Dalton Schultz. Neither of them is a downfield threat, and Metchie can be that guy with new quarterback CJ Stroud.
While he isn’t a great separator, he can definitely be a huge splash play guy with almost 3,000 air yards available. The current ADP per FantasyPros is WR79 between Tim Patrick and Hunter Renfrow. That’s a price I’m willing to take the shot at based on the quantity of vacated targets available.
DJ Chark – WR – Carolina Panthers
With new head coach Frank Reich and rookie quarterback Bryce Young, wide receivers are typically not a big target in redraft leagues. With DJ Chark looking at a team with over 62% of their air yards up for grabs and over 200 targets, he stands to get some work. DJ Chark has the speed needed to get behind defenses, as shown by his previous two seasons’ yards per catch (22 YPC in 2021 and 17 in 2022).
The Panthers signed 32-year-old Adam Thielen and drafted Jonathan Mingo to expand the existing roster but lack playmakers like Chark. If I was to tell you that you could draft the WR1 for the Panthers in the same average draft position as Alec Pierce and Van Jefferson (ADP WR73), you should be salivating. Carolina is a big question mark when it comes to vacated targets in 2023.
