Only three rounds remain before the latest CONCACAF Gold Cup champion is crowned. For now, the focus for bettors is on the quarterfinal matches, taking place on Saturday and Sunday. The former day features Panama vs. Qatar and Mexico vs. Costa Rica, while day two is Guatemala vs. Jamaica and the United States vs. Canada.
Panama, Mexico, Jamaica, and the United States – who enter this tournament as defending champions – are the favorites to reach the semifinals at DraftKings Sportsbook.
But which of the four matches offers bettors the best chance of cashing a ticket? Let’s dive into our best bets across all four matches – the odds are reflective at the time of writing.
CONCACAF Gold Cup Odds, Predictions: 2 Best Bets for the Quarterfinals, Including USMNT
Mexico Goal-Line (-1.5, -105) vs. Costa Rica
Don’t let Mexico’s 2-1-0 (W-L-D) record fool you – they’ve proved the class of this tournament.
Across all three matches – including a recent 1-0 loss to Qatar – Mexico owns a +4 expected goal differential, per footystats.org. Actual results support the underlying metrics, with Mexico earning wins by multiple goals in two victories against Honduras and Haiti.
Against Qatar, Mexico won the expected goals battle 1.54 to 0.31, again per footystats.org.
Conversely, Costa Rica enters this quarterfinal match as a negative regression candidate. Through their first three matches, they own a +1 goal differential vs. a -0.83 expected goal differential.
Most of that regression is expected on the offensive end, where Costa Rica has scored seven goals off 3.96 expected. There’s a good chance it comes against Mexico, who have surrendered only 0.6 expected goals per 90 minutes in three matches.
For those reasons, lay the goal-and-a-half with Mexico at -120 or better.
Two-Leg Moneyline Parlay: Mexico & United States (+120)
We’ll double down on our Mexico belief by using their moneyline (-280) as the first leg of a moneyline parlay.
From there, we add the United States against an Alphonso Davies-less Canada side.
Set aside the underlying metrics briefly and consider this fact – just a few weeks ago, the USMNT dispatched Canada 2-0 in a Nations League fixture. A previous encounter in the 2021 CONCACAF Gold Cup saw the United States win 1-0 in reality and on big scoring chances, per fotmob.com.
Although Canada is unbeaten in this tournament, they’re not used to playing without the ball. Against Guatemala, Guadeloupe, and Cuba, head coach John Herdman’s side has created 2.07 expected goals per 90 while holding 57.7 percent of the ball.
But that won’t happen against the United States, who operate in a possession-dominant style of play. Without the ball, it’s questionable how Canada replicates their offensive output.
Combine that with the fact Canada allowed 1.3 expected goals per 90 minutes to teams weaker than the United States, and the hosts should excel on the offensive end. Against Jamaica – the closest comparison to this Canadian side – the United States generated 1.3 expected goals.
As a function of those metrics, bet this two-team parlay at +100 or better.
