Nothing screams United States of America and the Fourth of July like watching the 2023 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. At 10:45 A.M. EST in Coney Island, NY, watch the women compete on ESPN3. Then, at Noon EST on ESPN, watch the men shove and wash Hot Dogs and buns (HDB) down their throats, and maybe lose your own appetite along the way. Joey Chestnut (male) and Miki Sudo (female) have been the biggest locks in sports, and both will return this year with the hopes of adding another Mustard Belt to their collection.
The weather is important to handicap as hot and humid conditions usually mean less HDB ate. This year it’s expected to be in the low 80s with a slight wind. It shouldn’t affect competitors too much, allowing plenty of HDB to be devoured.
This year Chestnut is gunning for his 16th Mustard Belt in the last 17 years. In last year’s competition, Chestnut gulped down 63 HDB while in a walking boot and fighting off a protestor. If you read this article last year, you had easy cash with Chestnut’s under. In 2021, while not on crutches, Chestnut set a new World Record for consuming 76 HBDs within ten minutes of competition. The record he broke was his own of 75 in 2020.
Miki Sudo has won the women’s hot dog eating contest in eight of the last nine years. The only year she didn’t win the competition was in 2021, when she sat out due to pregnancy. Sudo is married to Nick Wehry, who has the third-best odds of winning this year’s men’s contest. In 2020 Sudo broke her original World Record by recording 48.5 HBDs.
Joey Chestnut And 2023 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Betting Odds, Picks, And Props
2023 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Betting Odds
Men’s Outright Winner via DraftKings
Joey Chestnut -4000
Geoffrey Esper +1200
Nick Wehry +2000
James Webb +2500
The Field +3000
Bartley Weaver IV +4000
Gideon Oji +5000
Adrian Morgan +5000
Ren Zoza +7500
Darrien Thomas +10000
“Winner Without Joey Chestnut” via DraftKings
Geoffrey Esper -200
Nick Wehry +300
James Webb +800
The Field +1200
Gideon Oji +2500
Darrien Thomas +2500
Bartley Weaver IV +2500
Ren Zoza +4000
Adrian Morgan +5000
Women’s Outright Winner via DraftKings
Miki Sudo -4000
The Field +1500
Michelle Lesco +2000
2023 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Betting Odds – HBD Props
Combined HBD between Joey Chestnut and Miki Sudo Over/Under 114.5
Joey Chestnut Over/Under 71.5 HBD
Geoffrey Esper Over/Under 50.5 HBD
Nick Wehry Over/Under 45.5 HBD
Miki Sudo Over/Under 43.5 HBD
James Webb Over/Under 41.5 HBD
Gideon Oji Over/Under 38.5 HBD
Bartley Weaver IV Over/Under 38.5 HBD
Michelle Lesco Over/Under 29.5 HBD
2023 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Betting Odds – World Record Props
Will Joey Chestnut eat more than 76 HDB? Yes +285, No -380
Will Miki Sudo eat more than 48.5 HDB? Yes +255, No -330
2023 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Betting Odds – Matchups
Joey Chestnut (-30.5) vs. Miki Sudo
Joey Chestnut (-22.5) vs. Geoffrey Esper
Geoffrey Esper (-8.5) vs. Miki Sudo
Geoffrey Esper (-3.5) vs. Nick Wehry
James Webb (-3.5) vs. Gideon Oji
James Webb (-3.5) vs. Bartley Weaver IV
Nick Wehry (-2.5) vs. Miki Sudo
Best Bets 2023 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest
For what it’s worth, I’m staying away from Joey Chestnut. Books will take the most action on Chestnut’s lines, and overall I think they are pretty tight. We have been given plenty of opportunities to bet on the hot dog eating contest this year compared to in years past. Why would we not explore more options in a niche market? Especially in a sport that doesn’t have easily accessible stats to research.
James Webb (-3.5) vs. Gideon Oji
In 2022 James Webb became the first Australian to compete at Coney Island in the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. Webb is ranked as the #1 Eater in the Southern Hemisphere. He returns to Coney Island with the goal of becoming the ninth person to ever eat 50 HDB. Webb’s official personal best is 41.5 HDB in 10 minutes, set in 2022. Now that Webb knows what it’s like in the heat and in front of many fans, I think he can pace himself and improve his technique entering 2023.
Webb uploaded an HDB training video to his YouTube channel on June 2nd, 2023. In it, he consumed 42 HDB in 8 minutes and 30 seconds (he ran out of HDB supply). I’m not the best mathematician, but he was on a 12.14-second per HDB pace. With an ample supply of Nathan’s Famous hot dogs, he could eat up to 49.4 HDB in 10 minutes.
Gideon Oji’s personal best HDB eaten was 38 back in 2016. Oji only put down 29 HDB in the 2022 contest and averaged 36.65 HDB in the five contests he competed in before that. Lastly, on June 24th, Oji qualified for this year’s contest by eating 35 HDB in Washington, D.C.
Gideon Oji Less Than 38.5 HDB
Take everything from the last paragraph and apply it here against Major League Eating’s tallest athlete. Gideon Oji was a former college basketball player for Clayton State. Who knows, the height might play a factor against him because of how far his arms have to go up and down, grabbing HDBs from the table and bringing them up to his mouth.
Gideon Oji’s personal best HDB eaten was 38 back in 2016. Oji would need to set a new personal best to cash this over. Plus, he only put down 29 HDB in the 2022 contest and averaged 36.65 HDB in the five contests he competed in before that. Lastly, on June 24th, Oji qualified for this year’s contest by eating 35 HDB in Washington, D.C.
Geoffrey Esper (-3.5) vs. Nick Wehry
Representing Oxford, Massachusetts, Geoffrey Esper, with his faded-out Red Sox cap, has been a regular in the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. Esper’s personal best is 50 HDB in 2021. In the Berea, Ohio qualifier on May 27th, Esper once again gulped down 50 HDBs.
Nick Wehry hails from Port Richey, Florida, and has competed in the last five hot dog eating contests. Wehry’s personal best is 44 HDB in 2021, and he guzzled 44 HDB in the Kissimmee, FL, qualifier on May 13th.
Esper didn’t compete in the Covid year competition, but in the other four instances that Esper and Wehry competed against each other, Esper covered the -3.5. In 2022 Esper ate 47.5 HDB and Wehry had 40. 2021 featured Esper and Wehry setting new personal bests with 50 and 44, respectively. Esper ate 47 HDB in 2019 and 41 in 2018. Whereas Wehry only swallowed 36 and 31 in 2019 and 2018.
