Following a week-long hiatus, Formula 1 returns this weekend for an extended run of European races. First on the calendar is Austria at the Red Bull Ring. Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc enters this weekend as the defending champion at this track, where he held off Red Bull’s Max Verstappen in 2022.
But, it’s Verstappen–winner of four straight races – who enters this weekend’s grand prix as the favorite. As of Wednesday afternoon, Verstappen is a -275 favorite to claim his fifth straight grand prix.
Here’s how the top seven shake out in the outright market.
Formula 1 Odds, Predictions: 2 Best Bets For The Austria Grand Prix, Including Lando Norris
Formula 1 Austria Grand Prix Outright Prices
- Max Verstappen -275
- Fernando Alonso +700
- Lewis Hamilton +800
- Sergio Perez +900
- George Russell +1400
- Charles Leclerc +2000
- Carlos Sainz +3300
But we’re staying away from the outright market for our best bets. Let’s dive into our picks – the odds are reflective at the time of writing and are subject to movement.
George Russell (-120) over Charles Leclerc, BetMGM Sportsbook
Leclerc bested Russell’s Mercedes in Canada, a correlative circuit to Austria. However, we’re selling him this weekend.
Misfortune plagued Russell last week in Canada. He qualified P5 – six spots ahead of Leclerc – but contact with Sergio Perez forced an early pit and subsequent penalty.
Without those events, who knows what Russell’s ceiling could have been in Montreal? Although Leclerc owns an outstanding record in Austria – he’s finished P3 or better in three of his last four – Russell owns a better overall record at correlative circuits.
Across the last eight races at qualifying tracks – Austria, Netherlands, Mexico, Brazil, and Canada – Russell won the head-to-head battle in six. Granted, three of those six wins came from Leclerc taking new power unit elements or crashing, but that still leaves Russell with a positive record in the remaining five.
For those reasons, we’ll back Russell at a pick ‘em price.
Lando Norris Points Finish (-105), FanDuel Sportsbook
This represents a solid buy-low spot for Norris and McLaren, who are introducing the first phase of their upgrade package in Austria. Norris’ results in Spain and Canada leave a lot to be desired – P17 and P13, respectively. However, there’s more than meets the eye with those results.
Much like Russell, bad luck plagued Norris at those races. In Canada, he qualified P7 and finished P9 but received a five-second time penalty for “unsportsmanlike behavior.” In Spain, Norris qualified P3 but finished P17 after damage on the first lap.
Last year, at grand prix’s at the six aforementioned correlative circuits, Norris recorded a points finish in four, including a P7 in Austria. Plus, Norris posted back-to-back P3s at this circuit in 2020 and 2021.
Expand the sample to include all races at correlative tracks dating back to 2020, and bettors will find Norris crossed the line P10 or better in 14 of 18 races. As a function of those results, we’ll back Norris up to -120 for a points finish.