Following the conclusion of Tuesday’s slate, the first round of CONCACAF Gold Cup action has ended. The first round produced some very notable results. The United States, who won the 2021 edition of this tournament, played to a 1-1 draw with Jamaica, while 2021 finalists Mexico thrashed Honduras 4-0.
Elsewhere, Haiti earned a 2-1 win against World Cup host nation Qatar while Panama defeated Costa Rica.
Now, soccer bettors can turn their attention to Matchday 2 as we seek to continue our positive run of results. Below are my two best bets for all of Matchday 2 – odds come courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and are reflective at the time of writing.
CONCACAF Gold Cup Odds, Predictions: Best Bets for Non-USMNT Matches on Matchday 2
Same-Game Parlay: Mexico Moneyline & Total Under 3.5 Goals vs. Haiti (+115)
Don’t let the 4-0 scoreline fool you – Mexico drastically overperformed their expected goal metrics and enter Matchday Two as a negative regression candidate.
Against Honduras, El Tri scored four goals off only 1.6 expected, according to footystats.org. Even though they simultaneously created four big scoring chances, per fotmob.com, I’ll be surprised if their remarkable finishing rate continues.
All told, their match saw only 2.2 combined expected goals between Mexico and Honduras, who created 0.6. More trustworthy than the Mexico attack is their defense, which has conceded only 1.02 expected goals per 90 minutes over their last three matches.
On the flip side, Haiti also overperformed their expected goal tally in their first match. Against Qatar, they scored two goals off 1.4 expected, with the match seeing three goals against 2.25 expected, again per footystats.org.
Pair that with the fact Mexico has won four of their last five matches on expected goals – the United States is the only side to defeat them – and we’ll back this same-game parlay at +100 or better.
Jamaica/Trinidad & Tobago Total Under 2.5 Goals (-140)
This represents the perfect sell spot for Trinidad, who overperformed in the first match and now faces a superior defense.
Against St. Kitts & Nevis – easily the worst tournament team – Trinidad scored three goals off only 1.3 expected, per footystats.org.
Now, they must face a stout Jamaica defense, which held its own against the United States. In what was a home game for the USMNT, Jamaica limited them to 1.49 expected goals.
Plus, in an April Nations League tie against Mexico, Jamaica held El Tri to three big scoring chances, one of which was a penalty.
That record should inform success against a weak Trinidad attack. In their last two competitive matches, they’ve created only three big scoring chances, one of which came via a penalty.
Yet, I simultaneously don’t trust this Jamaica attack, especially when the onus is on them to attack. Over their last three matches, they’ve created only 1.04 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes.
Based on those results, we’ll back a low-scoring contest Wednesday in St. Louis. Bet at -145 or better.
