Your favorite NBA team won the draft lottery and has the #1 overall pick in the upcoming draft. That means sunny days ahead, right? While it depends on that year’s draft class, more often than not, you’re adding a future top-15 player to your roster. But not all draft picks are as valuable, and fans and teams alike probably overvalue the level of player they are going to be able to acquire with their draft pick. I’ve done some number crunching from the 2010 to 2019 NBA Drafts (to allow players enough time to fulfill their potential, I’ve excluded more recent draft classes), and this is what I’ve found.
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NBA Draft Slot Values – What Level of Player Can You Get at Each Slot?
#1 Pick
Chances of Getting an All-NBA Player: 50%
Chances of Getting an All-Star Player: 70%
No surprise here – having the #1 overall pick is pretty valuable. And teams have done a good job overall of grabbing a franchise-level player at this slot. Markell Fultz, Anthony Bennett, and Deandre Ayton are the only #1 overall draft picks from the decade we’re examining not to make an All-Star team. And there might still be hope for Ayton.
#2 Pick
Chances of Getting an All-NBA Player: 20%
Chances of Getting an All-Star Player: 40%
What a difference one draft slot can make. There’s an enormous drop-off in terms of value between the #1 pick and the #2. The only All-NBA players drafted at #2 between 2010 and 2019 were Victor Oladipo and Ja Morant. And neither of them are players you can build your franchise on (one based on injuries, the other on off-the-court issues).
#3 Pick
Chances of Getting an All-NBA Player: 50%
Chances of Getting an All-Star Player: 50%
Pick #3 is the place to be if you can’t get first overall. Half of the ten players drafted here have at one point been considered a top 15 player in the NBA – Bradley Beal, Joel Embiid, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Luka Doncic. Hell, Boston’s whole franchise has been dependent on that pick.
#4 Pick
Chances of Getting an All-NBA Player: 0%
Chances of Getting an All-Star Player: 20%
Luckily Houston is historically a solid drafting team because pick #4 has been a curse lately. No All-NBA talent, and Kristaps Porzingis and Jaren Jackson Jr are the only All-Stars. JJJ has an All-NBA upside, though.
#5 Pick
Chances of Getting an All-NBA Player: 30%
Chances of Getting an All-Star Player: 40%
No real rhyme or reason to this, but pick #5 has been relatively good to its possessors. De’Aaron Fox, Trae Young, Darius Garland – it’s where star guards have tended to get picked
#6-14 Pick
Chances of Getting an All-NBA Player: 11%
Chances of Getting an All-Star Player: 16%
It’s a real crapshoot outside of the top five but still in the lottery. Sure, there are Paul Georges, Klay Thompsons, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexanders available, but they are the exception, not the rule.
#15-30 Pick 160 6 5
Chances of Getting an All-NBA Player: 3%
Chances of Getting an All-Star Player: 4%
Giannis Antetokounmpo. Rudy Gobert. Kawhi Leonard. It’s possible to get a difference-maker in the second half of the first round of the NBA Draft. But you have to know what you’re doing.
#31-60 Pick
Chances of Getting an All-NBA Player: 1%
Chances of Getting an All-Star Player: 1%
Nikola Jokic, Draymond Green, and Khris Middleton were all second-round picks. But teams are more likely to pick a player that doesn’t even see any NBA action than they are picking a star past pick 30.
