NBA Draft season is the time when fans of all 30 NBA franchises feel hopeful for the future of their team. This is when things will turn around – or keep on keeping on if you’re a Denver Nuggets fan – for their beloved team. But, as fans of some franchises have realized, the NBA Draft can amount to nothing but fool’s gold. Some franchises can’t draft to save their lives (or jobs). So I went about finding a way to quantify this.
NBA Draft Franchise Rankings – Who is Best at Drafting?
Methodology
How did I determine my ranking, other than just by the ol’ eye test? I calculated whether or not a team maximized their draft slot, regardless of where they drafted. Teams who made shrewd moves late in the draft are rewarded higher than a lottery team who drafted an obvious slam dunk (pun intended) prospect. I looked at who made the most out of the hand they were dealt. That is the best way to judge a front office’s abilities.
First, I ranked each draft class from 2012-21 in order of a player’s career Win Shares, the best all-encompassing NBA stat that Basketball Reference lists. I didn’t include the 2022 draft class because they haven’t played enough games to establish themselves.
Second, I took a player’s draft spot and subtracted his WS from that number. If a player is the top WS producer in his class but was picked 30th, he scores 29 points for the team who selected him. The team in this example got a player that should have been drafted 29 spots higher than where he was drafted him.
Breaking Down The Numbers
Here’s a ranking of the average per pick per team for all 30 teams from the past decade. The numbers represent how many draft slots they, on average, picked better – or worse – than their actual position. `
| 1 | Toronto | 6.5 |
| 2 | Memphis | 5.3 |
| 3 | Lakers | 5.2 |
| 4 | Golden State | 4.5 |
| 5 | Houston | 4.4 |
| 6 | Denver | 3.8 |
| 7 | Clippers | 3.6 |
| 7 | Miami | 3.6 |
| 9 | Indiana | 3.3 |
| 10 | Utah | 2.0 |
| 11 | New Orleans | 1.4 |
| 12 | Chicago | 1.3 |
| 12 | Atlanta | 1.3 |
| 14 | Detroit | 0.9 |
| 15 | Brooklyn | 0.6 |
| 16 | Oklahoma City | 0.4 |
| 17 | New York | 0.2 |
| 18 | Philadelphia | 0.1 |
| 19 | Boston | -0.5 |
| 20 | San Antonio | -0.9 |
| 20 | Portland | -0.9 |
| 22 | Washington | -1.1 |
| 22 | Milwaukee | -1.1 |
| 24 | Minnesota | -1.5 |
| 25 | Cleveland | -1.6 |
| 26 | Charlotte | -2.5 |
| 27 | Sacramento | -3.0 |
| 28 | Dallas | -3.5 |
| 29 | Orlando | -5.7 |
| 30 | Phoenix | -6.8 |
The Toronto Raptors lead the way, with their average draft pick far exceeding his draft position over the past decade. An average draft saw Toronto draft picks outperform their draft slot by almost seven positions. So, for this year’s proceedings, if Toronto does an average job, they can expect to get the sixth or seventh-best player at their #13 draft position.
Scottie Barnes at #4, Pascal Siakam at #27, OG Anunoby at #23, Norman Powell at #46 – the Raptors rarely have swung and missed. Hence them capturing the Larry O’Brien trophy during this past decade.
Sadly, I’m a Phoenix Suns fan. It’s a tough station in life. They suck at drafting. The complete opposition of my “hometown” team, the Raptors, Phoenix’s average pick underperforms by almost seven draft slots. For every Devin Booker and Mikal Bridges, there’s Deandre Ayton, Alex Len, Marquese Chriss, Jalen Smith, Tyler Ennis, and Dragan Bender…I don’t have to continue, do I?!
Finally, let’s take a peek at the shrewdest – and silliest – moves teams made during this period.
Shrewd
Draymond Green – Golden State – 2012 (+31)
There’s no secret why Golden State has been a dynasty for so long – they are great at evaluating and drafting talent. They got cornerstone player and future Hall of Famer Draymond Green with pick #35 in the 2012 NBA Draft. He’s gone on to produce the fourth most ‘wins’ in his draft class (Damian Lillard, Anthony Davis, and Andre Drummond(?!) are the three ahead of him – hey, Win Shares isn’t a perfect stat).
Khris Middleton – Detroit – 2012 (+34)
Four picks after Green went, the Pistons grabbed a championship cornerstone player themselves when they selected Khris Middleton. The fact that he became a franchise cornerstone player for another franchise is a different story. But, hey – Detroit got Brandon Jennings for him in the trade, so…
Nikola Jokic – Denver – 2014 (+40)
Not much to say here, right? A generational talent, NBA Champion, taken with pick #41 in the 2014 NBA Draft.
Silly
Anthony Bennett – Cleveland – 2013 (-38)
Hate to bag on a fellow Canadian, but Anthony Bennett turned out to be one of the worst #1 draft picks in NBA history. But the Cavs ended up with Kevin Love in a trade Bennett was included in, so all was not lost.
Emmanuel Mudiay – Denver – 2015 (-35)
The newly crowned kings of the NBA haven’t always hit grand slams like Jokic with their draft picks. They drafted Emmanuel Mudiay with pick #7 in 2015. They cut bait two and a half seasons later.
Josh Jackson – Phoenix – 2017 (-52)
I didn’t even mention Josh Jackson when I was listing the Phoenix’s failures early. Pick #4 in 2017. Great job, team.
