NFC East Picks and Props for Every Team

SGPN is back with the NFC East Picks and Props feature to give you the best betting advice to beat the books this offseason. We’ll feature key division picks, player props, and team props. Come back each week for our division preview series; we have plenty more off-season features on the way!

No team has won the NFC East in back-to-back seasons since the early—2000s. The Philadelphia Eagles won the NFC East from 2001-2004, logging four straight division titles; however, since 2004, no NFC East team has won the division in back-to-back seasons. We’ll lead off with our division winner and break down the group from the top down.

NFC East Picks and Props for Every Team

Division Winner

Eagles to Win the NFC East: -120

I’m backing the Philadelphia Eagles to take down the NFC East in 2024. They have the deepest offense, and their defense has been top 5 the past two seasons. As a result, Philadelphia offers the safest floor to win the division. It certainly reflects in their odds of -120.

The Eagles were second in total points scored and third in highest margin of victory last season. Even if they regress this upcoming season, it’s hard to believe it will be outside the top 5-7 in each category.

The remaining teams in the division offer offenses and defense with far less upside to select them over the Eagles. Philadelphia is too strong, at least on paper. But, in June, paper is all we have; the Eagles should easily finish ahead of this group by 3-4 wins.

NFC East Picks and Props by Team

Philadelphia Eagles

Over 11.5 Wins: -110

As I said, the Philadelphia Eagles offer a safe floor to clear their division. But winning the NFC East isn’t the only low-hanging fruit to leverage in this division. You’re getting a gift on the win total odds for a team I expect to win the NFC East by 3-4 games.

The Eagles won 14 games last season, so again, even with a minor regression, I’m getting even-money odds to hit a safe threshold. Don’t overthink this pick. The Eagles are a country mile ahead of this division and the NFC; there is no apparent threat to them in the conference, let alone their division. The Eagles are the favorite to win the NFC Conference with odds of +250; 12 wins will be no problem.

Conference Winner: +250

The Eagles have odds of -450 to make the playoffs and odds of +250 to return to the Super Bowl and win the NFC Conference. In comparison, the Eagles have better odds of returning to the Super Bowl than the Kansas City Chiefs, who pay odds of +330.

So the books clearly tell us the NFC is less competitive than the AFC (similar to public opinion); if they have the previous Super Bowl loser with more likely odds to return to the final dance over the team that won it.

I recommend hedging this pick with two more teams, the 49ers(+425) and the Seahawks(+1100); that is the best way to attack the odds. However, the Eagles still hold the most likely chance to win the conference based on a lack of competition in the NFC.

1+ Rush TD in Each Regular Season Game: +1000

The Eagles scored a rushing touchdown in 15/17 games played last season. The Eagles also scored a league-high 32 rushing touchdowns last season. Their QB, Jalen Hurts, also led the league in direct QB runs last year, so don’t expect the Eagles to stop running in the red zone.

The Eagles ranked 4th in total rushing attempts in the red zone in 2023; you could see them climb that number with the emergence of D’andre Swift and Rashaad Penny. This bet pays 10-1 odds for a team that prioritizes scoring on the ground; there’s a lot to feel good about here!

If you don’t like this PLAY stop letting us get 1 yard away from a 1st down! #Eagles pic.twitter.com/SYxwAFu7mV

— Philly Talk Podcast (@Philly_Mike25) June 3, 2023

Dallas Cowboys

Over 9.5 Wins: -155

While the odds aren’t the sexiest, you get another safe floor regarding required production. Nine and a half wins should not be a great “ask” of the Dallas Cowboys, who brought home 12 wins last season. Their starting QB Dak Prescott played in just 12 games last season, finishing with a record of 8-4.

His backup Cooper Rush filled in with a record of 4-1, highlighting the strength of the overall group. The Dallas defense was a big reason for the team’s success last year. The team added Stephon Gilmore to a secondary that earned the 4th most interceptions last season.

I could see the Cowboys finishing second in the division and still clearing this number, the same as they did last season. The defense has a few upgrades, and the offense seems a bit better after the additions of Brandin Cooks and Deuce Vaughan this offseason.

Lose in the Divisional Round: +380

The Dallas Cowboys lost in the divisional round last year, and that’s as far as I have them going again this upcoming season. However, the Cowboys advanced in the Wild Card Round when playing on the road against the lowly Tampa Bay Buccanneers in 2023.

The Cowboys would likely win a few other NFC divisions, so while they will most likely play a road game again in the wild-card round, I expect they will be the favorite to win that matchup come playoff time.

Dallas is getting odds of -190 to make the playoffs, so the public agrees that Dallas will make it to the postseason; the odds you’re getting for a 1-1 playoff finish are juicy enough to buy in on.

While the Cowboys improved this offseason, they don’t feel strong enough to comfortably break this postseason threshold. My bet would be the Eagles play the 49ers or Seahawks in the NFC Conference finals.

Dak Prescott 400+ Passing Yards in 3+ Regular Season Games: +300

I like the odds I’m getting for this pick based on the offensive build for the Dallas Cowboys. Their starting running back, Tony Pollard, is returning from injury, and the team didn’t invest heavily in the RB position this offseason. Behind Pollard, the team has Deuce Vaughan, Malik Davis, and Ronald Jones. Unfortunately, this group doesn’t echo high levels of trust to offer a run-heavy scheme.

The Cowboys will be forced to pass the ball with priority this season; while I expect their secondary to be better, this group still finished in the middle of the league regarding touchdowns allowed.

Expect to see Dallas in a handful of shootouts, especially early in the season when Tony Pollard will have less rushing volume; as he gets healthier, I expect the odds for Dak to pass for 400+ yards in a game to be less likely; I could see him hitting this bet in the first half of next season.

Dak has just five games with 400+ passing yards in his last three seasons, but be mindful that was with Ezekiel Elliott rostered; the team has less rushing upside with his absence.

Dak prescott 3rd and 30 50 bomb for you watson https://t.co/9LlWkoXpyD pic.twitter.com/Do8Drfh7uY

— adam (@CeeDeeLqmb) January 14, 2023

New York Giants

Over 7.5 Wins: +100

I don’t believe the New York Giants are a big threat in the NFC, but hitting over 7.5 wins feels VERY obtainable with their roster construction. The team finished with a 9-7 record last season. The offense didn’t take great strides, but they did add veteran TE Darren Waller.

The Giants have a very “Middled” group of wide receivers and bring back star running back Saquon Barkley to support Daniel Jones at QB. While Jones hasn’t surpassed 20+ passing touchdowns in the past three seasons, he’ll be in year two of the Brian Daboll offense, and many expect him and the offense to improve from last season.

I’m unsure if that will be the case, but I’m certainly willing to wager they won’t regress more than a win off last season’s total. As I’ve said, the conference is wide open after the Eagles. The NFC East could feature three playoff teams this year; if that happens, I’d easily predict the Giants to be among that group.

1+ TD Scored in Each Regular Season Game: +250

The Giants scored a touchdown in each regular season game last season, and I’m willing to go back to the well to win this wager. Brian Daboll instilled a more conservative offense that utilizes the strengths of its players.

Clearly, his upgraded offense played an effect on the teams’ success last year; I’m willing to buy that the group won’t regress, giving me the confidence to attack this season-long prop.

The addition of Darren Waller should aid in the red zone scoring and help draw attention away from RB Saquon Barkley. I would bet the Giants score more total touchdowns overall this season. I also would have expected far worse odds to hit this bet for a team that is paying plus money to hit at least eight wins.

Daniel Jones Over 3300.5 Passing Yards: +100

Dan Jones finished with 3205 passing yards in 16 games played last season. He would finish with a record of 9-6-1. Jones averaged 200 passing yards per game last season. This was the season he played the most games of his career; however, he had the lowest total passing yards per game of any season recorded.

The “Year Two in Brian Daboll’s Offense” narrative is a constant bring back for many of my New York Giants takes; I don’t see Daniel Jones making significant improvements, but he shouldn’t get worse, and in reality, he probably takes a small step forward.

To hit this bet, you must be willing to wager that Dan Jones won’t regress from last season, which I think is fair for most football fans to agree with. Two hundred passing yards per game is easily a number he can climb from; I think you’re only taking the Under on this bet if you’re more confident than the public that Jones plays all 17 games; he was on pace to hit this number last season if he played in game 17.

In his biggest career game to date and a playoff berth at stake, Daniel Jones shined. With a pair of passing and rushing TDs, Danny Dimes had MetLife chanting his name.

The Giants clinched the wild card, their first visit to the playoffs since 2016.pic.twitter.com/sexQtRZ4YO

— NFL (@NFL) January 10, 2023

Washington Commanders

Over 6.5 Wins: -120

The Washington Commanders have continued to improve their team, and this offseason, they made great strides with the addition of Eric Bienemy and the subtraction of team owner Dan Snyder. The team sale will certainly stuff the pockets of the Snyder family. However, the team and fans feel like the ones who came out on top of his departure.

The corporate culture of the Washington Club has naturalized the team from the top down for many years, but now there is hope for change, and I truly believe a shift in culture will bleed over to the locker room and onto the field. This team finished 8-8-1 last season with the likes of Carson Wentz, Taylor Heinicke, and Sam Howell.

Eric Bienemy has been a well sought offensive coordinator for the past handful of seasons; I’m expecting him to build an offense for Sam Howell to operate with efficiency and be averse to risk.

While it’s hard for me to bet the Commanders to flip the division, I’m again expecting this team to maintain levels and not regress from their previous season totals. I see this team finishing 7-10 or 8-9.

Emmanuel Forbes to Win Defensive Rookie of the Year: +1800

We saw rookie CB Sauce Gardner win this award last season, and I believe that Forbes will be in a good position to record similar, if not better, stats than Gardner from last season.

Forbes will be in a position to start week one, and I believe he’ll bring home sexy stats to begin the year as NFL QBs test his comfort levels in this new stage. It’s a wide-open race at this point for the DROY, but Forbes should be valued as a good middle-tier target to hedge with.

I would recommend taking Forbes and a few other corners like Devone Witherspoon or Christian Gonzalez to best attack the odds available. I don’t believe any of the tackles or LBs will outshine the others; I love attacking corners with how pass-heavy the league is becoming.

Terry McLaurin Most Receiving Yards: +3500

Obviously, the odds meet how unlikely this bet feels in reality. However, let’s not forget that McLaurin had the 10th most receiving yards last season with very poor play at QB. I believe that Bienemy can create a special playbook that benefits and features McLaurin with auspicious amounts of touches and opportunities.

Look back to what he was able to do with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, albeit with a generational QB. I’m not saying that Sam Howell is the next Patrick Mahomes, but I do believe he’s better than what the public thinks he is and that his new OC will leverage the high-asset players around him.

If Howell plays well enough and the playbook features Terry, as I hope, then he’ll definitely be in the conversation to lead the league in receiving yards. It’s a tough ask, but fortune favors the bold; LET’S RIDE!