The NFL Draft is in the books. The schedule has been released. We’re only down to one Spring football league currently playing. The Sports Gambling Podcast has already posted a way too early analysis of the Week One matchups. While it’s a bit early to start queuing up to the window and placing bets, we can still look at a few of the trends to know for the 2023 NFL season.
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Which NFL teams have defended their home? Which teams have been road warriors? Who can we fade, and where can we fade them? First, let’s look at the home and away betting trends that may impact the 2023 NFL season.
2023 NFL Betting Trends: Which Key Betting Trends Will Impact the 2023 Season?
Which NFL Teams have the Best Home Field Advantage?
Which NFL team has the best record ATS since 2020? The Miami Dolphins are 17-8 ATS at home over the last three seasons. They went 5-3 ATS at home last year.
Get your popcorn ready. 🍿
Introducing your 2023 Miami Dolphins schedule! pic.twitter.com/afSl4VYbpn
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) May 12, 2023
The Dolphins start the year with their first two games on the road and get the Denver Broncos in Miami on Week 3. The current line is Dolphins -3.5. That line could shrink if Miami drops their first two on the road or the Broncos look capable in their first two matchups. There’s no need to jump on this early, but it’s a line to keep an eye on.
The Detroit Lions have the second-best home record ATS since 2020 with a nice 16-9 record. That includes a 7-2 mark last year. Apparently, the Jared Goff Lions defend their home turf.
The Lions start the 2023 season on the road against Kansas City but get Seattle and Atlanta in Detroit for Weeks 2 and 3. Detroit is a -3 favorite against the Seahawks and a -5 favorite against the Falcons. The line against Seattle could drop if Patrick Mahomes lights up the Lions in Week 1.
However, the line against the Falcons is tougher to predict. The Falcons will open the season with either Desmond Ridder or Taylor Heinicke at quarterback. That’s among the weakest quarterback rooms in the league, but they’re clearly not looking to pass with Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, and Cordarelle Patterson in the backfield. So could a weird, ground ‘n’ pound Falcons team cover -5 on the road? No. Bang the Lions before the books realize Ridder or Heinicke might be starting.
Which Teams Tend to Cover on the Road?
While Kansas City is still home to Arrowhead Stadium, not Burrowhead, the Cincinnati Bengals have the best road record ATS in the league since 2020. The Bengals are 21-9 away from Cincinnati over the last three years, including an 8-3 mark last year.
Feeding you all of our Joe content. pic.twitter.com/ppXAW2InO4
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) May 16, 2023
The Bengals open the 2023 season on the road against Cleveland. Cincinnati is a -2.5 favorite. The Bengals have gotten off to a slow start in each of the last two seasons, but this is the Factory of Sadness. So bang the Bengals and laugh when it cashes.
The New York Giants own a road record ATS of 16-10 over the last three seasons, including a 7-2 ATS away mark last year. But Brian Daboll’s boys can travel! The Giants travel to Glendale to face the Arizona Cardinals in Week 2. The line is currently sitting at Giants -4. Watch the line, but look to be on the Giants with the east coast to west coast travel.
Which Teams can be Faded at Home?
The Atlanta Falcons have an 8-16 record ATS over the last three seasons. The Falcons have chosen to build a run-first offense in a league that’s becoming more and more pass-heavy. The Falcons open the season at home against the Carolina Panthers.
The Andy Dalton Panthers in Week 1 won’t be a public team. No one is going to be on Panthers this week. The line is currently Falcons -3. See if the line moves ahead of this matchup and look to jump on Panthers if it gets above four points.
The Arizona Cardinals are only slightly better at 9-15 ATS over the past three seasons at home. We’re already fading against the Giants in Week 2. The next matchup that looks like an auto-fade is the Week 12 game against the Los Angeles Rams in Glendale. The Rams are road favorites at -2, but what if they somehow stay healthy? This line could balloon if the Rams can keep their key players on the field as they look to make one more run.
Which Teams are ‘Stay Aways’ on the Road?
The Philadelphia Eagles are 8-18 on the road over the last three seasons. That includes a 2-6 mark that was tied for the worst in the league last year. The Eagles win but rarely cover big numbers away from home.
Throwin’ dimes, catchin’ dimes#FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/FG1AjyRt52
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) May 15, 2023
The Eagles are on the road against New England in Week 1 and get the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3. Keep an eye on those lines, but New England needs to be more than +5 before sharps jump on. Finally, the Eagles face the Rams in Los Angeles in Week 5. The line is currently Rams +6. If that starts to balloon to seven or eight, jump on the Rams.
The Jets are 9-15 on the road over the last three seasons. They’ve upgraded the quarterback position from Zach Wilson to Aaron Rodgers for 2023, but it’s still mostly the same core around Rodgers. The Jets are at Buffalo in Week 12, and the line is only Bills -4. However, that line could rise quickly if there’s an injury or Rodgers struggles out of the gate. Look to jump on the Bills with the Jets traveling.
Do you want to stay up to date on the latest team previews and early picks for the 2023 NFL season? The Sports Gambling Podcast Network has you covered from all angles. Whether you’re checking out the original Sports Gambling Podcast or the NFL Gambling Podcast, we’ve got the betting tips and trends you need to beat the books this year. So stick with our experts and LET IT RIDE!