The 2023 NFL Draft is officially in the books, and the countdown to the regular season has begun! With teams across the league adding key additions and addressing crucial team needs in the draft, it’s time to start looking at how 10 members of the new class of draft picks could instantly help a team and how that correlates to the 2023 NFL season prop bets. (Odds as of 4/30/2023, and as always, please bet responsibly)
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10 Winners of the 2023 NFL Draft and Prop Bets to Match
1, 2, and 3.) The Philadelphia Eagles ( +100 to win NFC East, +300 to win the NFC, +750 to win the Superbowl, BetMGM)
The title of this article could be misleading, but with how much I love these three Eagles’ prop bets, I wanted to make sure to hit the point home. There are three winners here, the Philadelphia Eagles team and front office, the fans, and anyone who wants to win their bets.
The Eagles and general manager Howie Roseman somehow did it again, coming away with one of, if not the best, draft class of the 2023 draft. Honestly, I already really liked the props mentioned above before the start of the draft, but now I LOVE them after the draft.
With instant-impact picks like Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith and Sydney Brown potentially being able to fill in for CJ Gardner-Johnson’s departure on defense, the Eagles addressed a lot of their needs and look ready for another Super Bowl run. Oh yeah, speaking of the run, the Eagles also traded for RB D’Andre Swift and the 249th overall pick, giving the Lions the 219th pick in the 2023 draft and a 2025 fourth-round pick in return. Love it and love all three prop bets for the E-A-G-L-E-S Eagles!
4.) The Falcons and Bijan Robinson (Under 1100.5 regular season yards, -130, DraftKings)
Yes, the Falcons were winners of the Bijan Robinson sweepstakes. And look, I know Bijan Robinson will be a good running back in the NFL. I know he has all the potential to be a great running back, even a generational-type player. But Tyler Allgeier is on the Falcons. Tyler Allgeier is a good running back.
Tyler Allgeier had 1035 rushing yards last season. He won’t just disappear, and Bijan gets all the snaps. At best, the Falcons could look to do what the Green Bay Packers have done with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. Because of the crowded backfield, I’m looking at the under as the play here.
5.) The Falcons and Bijan Robinson again (Under 8.5 regular season rushing TDs, DraftKings)
Again, the Falcons were winners in the draft by being winners of the Bijan Robinson sweepstakes. So yes, he’s going to be good. But we need to temper expectations because the Falcons are still the Falcons. Tyler Allgeier had a great season last year. As mentioned above, he finished the season with 1035 rushing yards, BUT he only had three rushing touchdowns, while Cordarrelle Patterson had eight rushing touchdowns last season.
While Patterson could end up being cut to save cap space, there will still be two good running backs in constant competition for touchdowns. If Patterson does stay on the roster, then it’s going to be a fight for touchdowns. Again, looking at the Packers and their shared backfield, one final thought: neither Aaron Jones nor A.J. Dillon had over eight touchdowns (Dillon had seven, Jones had two). Usually, I’m a fan of life’s too short to bet the under, but to me, the under is the safe play on this one.
6.) The Houston Texans and C.J. Stroud (Under 3800.5 regular season passing yards, -130, DraftKings)
The Houston Texans were winners of the 2023 NFL draft by getting one of the two highly touted quarterbacks in Stroud (and trading up to get Will Anderson Jr.). Stroud will hopefully give the Texans a consistent quarterback right out of the gate while continuing to learn and grow his game as an NFL Starter.
While Stroud’s storied college career should roll over into the pro game with relative ease due to his decision-making, comfort in the pocket, and pure throwing ability/delivery, his 3800.5 passing yards prop seems too high to play. If Stroud were to have 3801 yards in his rookie season, it would make him tied for 5th highest rookie in passing yards, which doesn’t seem possible to do with the Texans’ pass-catching unit.
Love this emotion from CJ Stroud. It’s as reflective as it gets. Thinking about all the sacrifices people in your life made for you and the setbacks you overcame. Remembering those days you felt like you were overlooked despite your hard work and you asked yourself, “Why in the… pic.twitter.com/B60ZaGZkse
— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII) April 28, 2023
7.) The Carolina Panthers and Bryce Young (Under 3875.5 regular season passing yards, -130, DraftKings)
Much like the Texans, the Carolina Panthers were winners of the 2023 NFL draft by not only getting one of the two highly touted quarterbacks but by trading up with the Bears leading up to the draft. By trading with Chicago, the Panthers got the number one overall pick, ensuring Carolina could get who they viewed as the best available between Stroud and Love.
Like the above mentioned about Stroud, Young’s game should immediately translate to the pro level and allow him to be a day-one starter for the Panthers. Also, much like Stroud, Young’s 3875.5 passing yards in his rookie season seem too high.
While the Panthers did acquire some offensive improvements in the off-season with the additions of Miles Sanders, D.J. Chark, Hayden Hurst, and Adam Thielen and used their second-round draft pick on Jonathan Mingo, the Panthers’ offense still has ways to go. While Bryce Young will likely be a day-one starter, I don’t think the over on his passing yard in his rookie season is a non-starter.
8.) The Seattle Seahawks and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year 2023-2024, +900, FanDuel)
Not only did the Seattle Seahawks get one of the best cornerbacks available in the draft in Devon Witherspoon, a potential steal in EDGE Derick Hall, and a talented running back in Zach Charbonnet at pick 52 in the second round, but they got an absolute gem and potentially the steal of the draft in Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
There is absolutely no way that JSN should have been still sitting there at 20. JSN joins a WR core with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, creating quite the triple threat for Geno Smith. With a passing offense that was top 12 in yards last season, JSN should be able to make an immediate impact and be in serious contention for offensive rookie of the year right from the start.
9.) The New England Patriots and Christian Gonzalez (AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year 2023-2024, +1100, FanDuel)
Christian Gonzalez falling to New England at pick 17 is nothing short of a miracle for Bill Belichick and company, and Belichick will remind opponents of that throughout the season. Not only is Gonzalez an NFL-ready talent, but Belichick is also going to take this opportunity to remind everyone exactly who he is when it comes to converting drafted players into absolute talents and quieting the doubters who are starting to ask if Belichick still has what it takes to coach at an elite level.
Look for Gonzalez to impress during training camp and be a day-one starter, improving each week as he learns the speed of the NFL game, and potentially follow in Sauce Gardner‘s path, being an All-pro selection at cornerback as a rookie.
10- The New York Giants (New York Giants to make the playoffs, Yes +140, BetMGM)
While the Philadelphia Eagles will win the NFC East, the Giants can finish second ahead of Dallas and Washington and make the playoffs as one of the wildcard teams. However, there’s still a lot of uncertainty in Dallas, and Dallas didn’t do enough in the offseason or the draft to make needed improvements.
The Giants, on the other hand, went out and traded for Darren Waller, signed Daniel Jones to a contract extension, and had a great 2023 draft, addressing needs at cornerback with their first-round selection Deonte Banks, bolstered their offensive line with center John Michael Schmitz and also drafted talented WR Jalin Hyatt, who will help stretch the field with his speed and RB Eric Gray, which provides depth behind Saquon Barkley.
Look for 2023 NFL Coach of the Year Brian Daboll to pick up where he left off, continuing his quest to make the Giants into a serious playoff contender.