The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles will meet at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, to determine this season’s champion.
For the Chiefs’ this is the third time in four seasons making it to the big game, winning it all in 2020 against the San Francisco 49ers. For the Eagles, it’s their first trip back since winning the city’s first Super Bowl in 2017 against the New England Patriots.
There are thousands of different ways to bet on the Super Bowl. Does the coin toss or the Jersey color truly affect the game? That’s for you to decide. Let’s look at some trends and angles from Super Bowl history and each team this season to make better-informed decisions on what to bet.
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Super Bowl 2023: Betting Trends for Chiefs-Eagles
The Curse of the Coin Toss
Winning the coin flip sounds like a good way to start the season’s biggest game. Maybe not, though; the winner of the coin flip has lost an astonishing eight games in a row. The last time a team won both the coin toss and the game was in 2014, when the Seattle Seahawks defeated the Denver Broncos.
Only 24 times in the 56-game history has a team won both the coin flip and the Super Bowl. That means 57% of the time, losing the coin toss has led to winning the game.
The coin toss is almost literally a 50/50 proposition. In the history of the Super Bowl, tails have come up 29 times, while heads have been the winner 27. In the last ten years, tails have been the winner six times, but heads are on a two-game streak of hitting, including in four of the last five seasons.
The Luck of the White Jersey
Even though the Super Bowl is a neutral site game, there still has to be a “home” team and an “away” team. The way the NFL settles this is by alternating conferences each year.
Last season it was the Cincinnati Bengals of the AFC that got the “home” designation. This year that honor goes to the NFC’s Philadelphia Eagles.
The designated home team gets to select their Jersey, leaving the other team to wear the opposite. For Super Bowl 57, the Eagles have selected their traditional green jerseys that have been worn in all three Super Bowl appearances (XV, XXXIX, and LII), the most recent (LII) being a 41-33 victory over the Patriots.
This leaves the Chiefs to wear their white jerseys. In their four Super Bowl appearances (I, IV, LIV, LV), the Chiefs have worn while only the first Super Bowl a 35-10 loss to Green Bay.
Teams wearing white Jerseys have won 15 of the last 18 Super bowls, the only exceptions being Green Bay Packer’s win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XLV, the Eagles’ win over the Patriots in Super Bowl LII, and the Chiefs’ win over the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV. The overall Jersey color record favors white 36-20 through the first 56 Super Bowls.
The First Scoring Strike Has Proven Vital
Teams that score the first points in the Super Bowl have gone on to a 37-19 record straight up in the game. That’s a staggering 68% winning percentage for the team that strikes first.
Last season it was Matthew Stafford to Odell Beckham Jr mid-way through the first quarter that put the Rams on the board first on their way to the Super Bowl LVI victory.
However, despite this incredible record and last year’s result, it is worth noting. In the two Super Bowls before LIV last year, the teams that scored first lost both of those games, with the Chiefs falling on both sides of that coin.
Super Bowl LIV started with the San Francisco 49ers striking first, but the Chiefs came out victorious. The next season in Super Bowl LV, Kansas City scored first, with Tampa Bay coming out on top.
Picking the Winner of the Game is Key to Covering the Spread
Teams that win the Super Bowl have an astonishing 47-7-2 ATS. With the winner covering the spread 87% of the time. While the Rams did not cover the -4.5 spread in last year’s Super Bowl, with a spread hovering around the 1.5 point range on WynnBet (Eagles favored) this season, there is a much higher likelihood of the team that wins, whichever team that is, will cover the spread.
Favorites held the advantage in early Super Bowls, with only three underdogs winning in the first 14 Super Bowls. Favorites are 37-19 in the 56 Super Bowls played so far. In the last four games, it’s been an even 2-2 split. However, in the last 15 Super Bowls, the underdog has covered ten times.
Talk Spread to me, Teams ATS This Season
Philadelphia is 10-9 ATS overall.
Philadelphia is 8-3 ATS as the favorite.
Kansas City is 7-11-1 ATS overall.
Kansas City is 1-1 as the underdog.
The Eagles enter this game right around the 50% mark on the season, while the Chiefs were one of the worst teams ATS in 2022. For the Chiefs, almost all of their games came as the favorite (6-10-1) because, let’s face it, Patrick Mahomes isn’t going to be an underdog very often.
Both of these teams have gone 16-3 SU this season, the best record from each conference, and are the first matchup of #1 seeds in the Super Bowl since 2017 when the Eagles defeated the Patriots.
Offensive Fireworks or Defensive Battles: The Total
Philadelphia is 10-9 to the over this season
Kansas City is 8-11 to the over this season
Under holds a close 29-26 advantage in Super Bowl history (No O/U data available for Super Bowl I). The under has also hit four straight Super Bowls. The Chiefs played in two of those games and did not reach their team total in either game. Being held to 21 points in Super Bowl LIV and just 9 points in Super Bowl LV.
Andy Reid: Current Team vs. Former Team
Andy Reid is 28-23-4 ATS as a 1-3 point underdog
Reid is 25-30 straight up as a 1-3 point underdog
Reid spent 14 seasons in Philadelphia as the head man. Taking them to one Super Bowl appearance in Super Bowl XXXIX in 2004 but fell to the New England Patriots 27-10. After Reid was fired from Philadelphia in 2012, he immediately joined the Kansas City Chiefs, where he has been ever since. Since his departure, Reid has been 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS against the Eagles.
Reid has a great record with time to prepare. Coming off a bye week, Andy is 22-3 SU in the regular season and 7-3 SU in the postseason. When it comes to covering the spread off the bye, Reid is 18-11. In his three Super Bowl appearances, Reid is 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS.
See you in Arizona in two weeks.#Chiefs vs. #Eagles.
Andy Reid Bowl.
Mahomes vs. Hurts.
Kelce vs. Kelce. pic.twitter.com/dhhHa3Tfmu
— uSTADIUM (@uSTADIUM) January 30, 2023
New Kid on the Block
Nick Sirianni is 16-17-1 ATS in the regular season
Nick Sirianni is 13-10-1 ATS as a favorite
In just his second season at the helm of this Eagles team, Nick Sirianni has led them to the best record in the NFC and now has a chance to win it all in Arizona.
Since the 2000 Super Bowl, there have been 12 matchups of coaches, where one has Super Bowl experience, and the other does not. Surprisingly the first-time Super Bowl coach has gone 7-5 SU and, more importantly, 8-3-1 ATS.
Defense Wins Championships
We’ve all heard it, right? So, is there any validity to the age-old saying? At least recently, it appears so. Teams that allow fewer points per game in the regular season have won six of the last seven Super Bowls and are also 6-1 ATS in those games.
Kansas City ranked #15 in PPG, allowing 21.5
Kansas City ranked #10 in yards allowed per game at 328.3
Philadelphia Ranked #4 in PPG, allowing 18.8
Philadelphia Ranked #1 in yards allowed per game at 290.3