Week 13 Underdog Battle Royale Main Slate
As opposed to other DFS sites that base lineups around a salary cap, Underdog uses drafts for larger entry fields and each person is divided into a six-person draft. When the draft concludes your team is submitted into a 56,662-person field. This is different than other DFS sites as you’re at the mercy of other drafters. Who you have on your team will be based on who other fantasy managers draft, which is why I recommend submitting multiple entries to get that optimal lineup.
Lineup: 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex
Projected Field: 51, 048 Entrants
12 Game Slate
.5 PPR
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Week 13 Underdog Battle Royale Quarterback Analysis
Every week I harp on the importance of selecting the right Quarterback in the Battle Royale. Every single Underdog Battle Royale winner except one has had a top three Quarterback from that week in their lineup. That one team that didn’t had a top five performance from Josh Allen back in Week 4.
It’s essential to hit on the position so we are only looking for Quarterbacks that have a top three fantasy finish within their range of outcomes. Therefore, we can eliminate most of the Quarterbacks playing this Sunday right away. Here are my Quarterback rankings in tiers to show you how much you should be exposing yourself to each player.
Tier One:
Patrick Mahomes – QB – Kansas City Chiefs
ADP: 6.3 Stacking Options: Juju-Smith Schuster
Mahomes is the MVP favorite and is playing in what many expect to be the game of the week. The Bengals rank 3rd against Quarterbacks in terms of fantasy points given up to the position but that shouldn’t matter. Mahomes is matchup proof and has finished as a top six Quarterback play all but two weeks this season.
Jalen Hurts – QB – Philadelphia Eagles
ADP: 11.3 Stacking Options: AJ Brown, Devonta Smith
While Hurts’ passing has left something to be desired recently, it’s his rushing that makes him an elite fantasy option. He’s number three in rush yards per game among Quarterbacks and is first in rushing touchdowns. He’s also in a fantastic matchup with the Titans this weekend that rank 26th in fantasy points given up to Quarterbacks.
Tier Two:
Joe Burrow – QB – Cincinnati Bengals
ADP: 23.7 Stacking Options: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Hayden Hurst
After finishing in the bottom ten in pass plays per game in 2021, the Bengals are all the way up 7th in the NFL this season. Joe Burrow has been on fire recently as well finishing as the overall QB1 for three of the last six weeks. Don’t think too hard about this one as he’s also facing a Kansas City Chiefs team that’s been poor against the pass this year. Expect a shootout and he’s a steal at his current ADP.
Justin Herbert – QB – Los Angeles Chargers
ADP: 30.7 Stacking Options: Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler
After a tough midseason stretch without his top weapons Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, Herbert is coming alive of late. He’s finished QB9 and QB3 the last two weeks and is in a fantastic matchup this week against the Raiders. Something to keep in mind is that the Week 12 Battle Royale winner stacked Justin Herbert with Austin Ekeler. One of the few viable Quarterback and Running Back stacking options.
Lamar Jackson – QB – Baltimore Ravens
ADP: 26.6 Stacking Options: Mark Andrews
Jackson was on the Battle Royale winning roster in back-to-back games in Weeks 2 and 3 but hasn’t been on any since. In that time, he actually hasn’t finished as a top 7 Quarterback in fantasy football. Nonetheless, Jackson is still the best dual-threat Quarterback in the NFL and has huge upside this late in Underdog drafts. He only has 8 touchdowns in his last 8 games as well so I’m willing to take the chance that changes against the Broncos this week.
Tua Tagovailoa – QB – Miami Dolphins
ADP: 31.5 Stacking Options: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
Tagovailoa is another player who’s been on fire as of late. Prior to a bye and quiet performance against the Texans, he had three straight top 5 fantasy football performances. He’s going at a discount this week because of a tough matchup against the 49er defense. I understand that but all the downside is baked into the price. Tagovailoa has been very good this season and Patrick Mahomes has shown this defense can be beaten. He’s not even getting taken in a lot of drafts right now so he’s certainly worth a flier as it won’t take much for Hill or Waddle to break a big play.
Trevor Lawrence – QB – Jacksonville Jaguars
ADP: 35.2 Stacking Options: Christian Kirk, Zay Jones
Don’t look now but Trevor Lawrence is also beginning to play very well. He’s finished four of his past six games as a top 8 fantasy Quarterback after a tough midseason stretch. Although fumbling is still an issue, he’s gone five of his last six games without an interception too. Additionally, he’s going up against Detroit who is dead last in fantasy points given up to the Quarterback position. He’s a great way to get a little bit more unique this week in the Week 13 Underdog Battle Royale.
Tier Three:
Justin Fields – QB – Chicago Bears
ADP: 35,2 Stacking Options: Chase Claypool, Cole Kmet
Fields is going undrafted in most drafts because his status is up in the air due to a shoulder injury. Obviously, if he plays, he’s a steal at this ADP. Darnell Mooney is now out for the remainder of the season but Field’s passing wasn’t what made him valuable in fantasy football. His rushing upside is tremendous, and as a person who does many drafts, I was sure to grab a couple of shares of Fields at a discount early in the week.
Derek Carr – QB – Las Vegas Raiders
ADP: 35.9 Stacking Options: Davante Adams
This is another don’t look now player. After struggling with the new scheme for most of the season, Carr has come into his own in the last four weeks. He has three top 12 fantasy finishes in that span and is facing the Chargers in what should be a divisional shootout. The Charger’s defense has struggled with injuries are 20th in fantasy points given up to the Quarterback position.
Week 13 Underdog Battle Royale Tight End Analysis
Tight End is also more important in the Battle Royale format than other DFS platforms. Due to the lineups only consisting of six players, Tight End makes up a lot higher percentage of the scoring. Only three Battle Royale winners so far this season have had a Tight End that finished outside the top three scorers at the position. Of those three, only one had a Tight End that finished outside the top six.
Just like Quarterback, we are looking for Tight Ends with a top three finish in their range of outcomes, The heavy hitters are the obvious picks, but there have been numerous occasions where people have had success with sleeper Tight Ends in the Underdog Battle Royale. Travis Kelce, the number one Tight End this season by far, has only been on two Battle Royale winning rosters this season.
Tier One:
Travis Kelce – TE – Kansas City Chiefs
ADP: 1.3 Pairings: Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins
There isn’t much to say here. Even though Kelce has only been on two Battle Royale winning rosters I’m still willing to take him first overall in drafts. It’s a lot easier to find value at other positions so get your exposure to Kelce when you get the first pick.
Tier Two:
Mark Andrews – TE – Baltimore Ravens
ADP: 13.0 Pairings: Lamar Jackson, Courtland Sutton
Andrews started off the season with at least 10 targets in five of the first six games he played. Since he hasn’t had one double digit target game. His decrease in targets has coincided with Jackson’s struggles as a passer this season. This week against the Denver Broncos might not be the week to bet things get right, so I won’t let my exposure get too high on Andrews this week. Nonetheless, no Tight End except Kelce is likelier of having a 100 yard performance which makes him perfect for larger tournaments.
George Kittle – TE – San Francisco 49ers
ADP: 23.2 Pairings: Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
George Kittle is the perfect DFS large tournament Tight End. In four of his last six games, he has finished as a top 6 Tight End and in those other two he finished outside the top 25 at the position. These bust games keep his price down, and just like Andrews, he’s very capable of having a breakout game. It’s impossible to tell whose week it’s going to be in San Francisco but Kittle is a bargain at the third-fourth round turn.
Tier Three:
TJ Hockenson – TE – Minnesota Vikings
ADP: 28.2 Pairings: Garrett Wilson
Pat Freiermuth – TE – Pittsburg Steelers
ADP: 32.7 Pairings: None
Tier Four:
David Njoku – TE – Cleveland Browns
ADP: 33.2 Pairings: Deshaun Watson
Tier Four:
Hayden Hurst – TE – Cincinnati Bengals
ADP: 35.4 Pairings: Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes
Gerald Everett – TE – Los Angeles Chargers
ADP: 35.3 Pairings: Justin Herbert, Derek Carr, Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs
Week 13 Underdog Battle Royale Running Back Values
This week I decided to do some additional research on the roster construction of Battle Royale winners and have found some interesting takeaways. Every single Battle Royale winner has had a top five scoring Running Back from that week in their lineup. Additionally, 63.6% of winners had two top five Running Backs in their lineup. Seeing a trend here? We are only looking for players with extremely high ceilings in our Battle Royale drafts.
Some other interesting tidbits I’ve found is that 72.7% of Battle Royale winners have had two Running Backs in their lineup as opposed to three Wide Receivers. As a result, I’ll be aiming for Two Running Backs in most of my drafts as it’s important to take advantage of trends. As opposed to ranking the top Running Backs that all have high ceilings, I decided to highlight some Running Backs later in drafts who could be top 5 finishers.
Aaron Jones – RB – Green Bay Packers
ADP: 26.1 Pairings: Justin Fields
After an up and down season Jones has finished as a top 12 Running Back in three of his last five games. The offense as a whole has drug him down but he has that upside we are looking for at the position. He has two top five Running Back finished on the year as well and the Bears rank 27th in fantasy points given up to the position.
Joe Mixon – RB – Cincinnati Bengals
ADP: 30.9 Pairings: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Juju Smith-Schuster
Mixon could be the steal of the week at the end of drafts as there will be plenty of scoring opportunities against Kansas City. He missed their last game due to a concussion and hasn’t been fully cleared for this game. This is keeping his ADP down but you’ll want some cheap exposure in a matchup where the point total could be 60+.
Dalvin Cook – RB – Minnesota Vikings
ADP: 32.9 Pairings: Garrett Wilson
While the matchup may not be great, Cook is another player at the back end of drafts who could finish as a top five overall Running Back. The injuries may be piling up as well as Cook has had some down weeks recently and is no longer a locked-in top 10 play. Cook is still getting an elite workload though with 22 carries last week and five targets in four of his last five games. Let recency bias play to our advantage and get Cook at a discount.
Travis Etienne – RB – Jacksonville Jaguars
ADP: 27.6 Pairings: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Since taking over the full-time role after the departure of James Robinson, Etienne has been a big play waiting to happen. He ranks fifth in yards per touch and seventh in breakaway run rate (PlayerProfiler). As we’ve discussed, recency bias is most certainly a thing. Fantasy managers have already forgotten about that string of three straight RB1 performances and he could have a big day against a poor Lions defense.
Week 13 Underdog Battle Royale Wide Receiver Values
I also did some research on the trends of Wide Receivers and how they influence the Battle Royale. The findings yielded similar results as the other positions. Among the Battle Royale winners, 92.4% had a top five Wide Receiver from that week, and 72.7% had two top 5 Wide Receivers. Furthermore, for the whole year, only two teams have rostered a Wide Receiver that finished outside the top 12 at the position. Floor plays, or just solid production, aren’t going to win you any money in the Battle Royale. Be aggressive and target players with a wide range of outcomes.
Keenan Allen – WR – Los Angeles Chargers
ADP: 26.9 Pairings: Justin Herbert, Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs
Allen is the obvious stacking option with Justin Herbert in a good matchup with Mike Williams being out. He’s received 15 targets in total in the last two weeks since returning from a hamstring injury. and that was with him being worked back slowly the first week. Expect him to get a full complement of snaps against the Raiders and he certainly has top 5 Wide Receiver upside at the back end of drafts.
Christian Kirk – WR – Jacksonville Jaguars
ADP: 29.7 Pairings: Trevor Lawrence, Amon-Ra St. Brown
Kirk is another Jaguars player who had a quiet performance last week but has been playing very well recently. Prior to the Jaguars’ Week 11 bye week, Kirk had strung together two top 5 Wide Receiver finishes in a row. He’s been the clear top option for an improving Trevor Lawrence and he goes up against the Lions this week who rank 30th in fantasy points given up to the Wide Receiver position.
Juju Smith-Schuster – WR – Kansas City Chiefs
ADP: 34.4 Pairings: Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins
I’ve been chasing Smith-Schuster this week as the only viable stacking option with Patrick Mahomes. Travis Kelce goes as the first overall pick in most drafts and the rest of the Chiefs’ pass catchers aren’t startable in such small lineups. After missing a game due to injury and being limited last week, he practiced in full on Thursday and should be good to go for Sunday. This is a player that accumulated 325 yards and 2 touchdowns in his three games prior to the injury.
DK Metcalf – WR – Seattle Seahawks
ADP: 34.4 Pairings: Geno Smith (not recommended)
Metcalf has been fairly consistent this season but has just one top 12 Wide Receiver finish all season. I think that could change this week against the Rams that will be without Aaron Donald. They were already struggling and this should be the final nail in the coffin of a disappointing season. Metcalf is also averaging 10 targets over his last four games compared to just 6.25 for Tyler Lockett.
Week 13 Underdog Battle Royale Games to Target
I like to end each week by discussing some of the games to target in the Week 13 main slate of games. Concepts such as “stacking” or “bring backs” are less essential in the Battle Royale compared to other DFS sites because of the smaller lineups. However, they are still extremely important, and correlating still will give you the best chance to win. 72.7% of Battle Royale winners had a single stack (a Quarterback with one of their receiving weapons) in their lineup.
Additionally, 54.5% had a bring back in their lineup (two different players from opposing teams that week). Let the beginning of the draft and the players you take influence which games you’re going to target. Getting 2-3 pieces from the same game will give you an opportunity to take advantage of those high-scoring outcomes.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions
Over/Under: 51.5
Quarterback Plays: Trevor Lawrence
Running Back Plays: Travis Etienne, Jamaal Williams
Wide Receiver Plays: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones
Tight End Plays: None
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Over/Under: 52.5
Quarterback Plays: Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow
Running Back Plays: Joe Mixon
Wide Receiver Plays: Juju Smith-Schuster, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd
Tight End Plays: Travis Kelce, Hayden Hurst
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Over/Under: 50.5
Quarterback Plays: Justin Herbert, Derek Carr
Running Back Plays: Austin Ekeler, Josh Jacobs
Wide Receiver Plays: Davante Adams, Keenan Allen, Joshua Palmer
Tight End Plays: Gerald Everett
Miami Dolphins vs. San Francisco 49ers
Over/Under: 46.5
Quarterback Plays: Tua Tagovailoa
Running Back Plays: Christian McCaffrey
Wide Receiver Plays: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk
Tight End Plays: George Kittle
Thanks for checking out this Week 13 Underdog Battle Royale preview from the Sports Gambling Podcast Network. Check back daily for more fantasy football news and advice.
