Welcome back degens! Time to make some picks for the 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson.
This week we are back at TPC Craig Ranch for the second consecutive year. It’s a pretty non-descript and boring golf course. Last year K.H. Lee won with a winning score of -25. Expect more of the same in 2022. Go check out Steve’s course breakdown to see what type of golfers we should be targeting this week.
Golfers can do whatever they want off the tee at TPC Craig Ranch. It’s one of the least penal golf courses on the PGA Tour. The greens are big and relatively flat, so this is definitely a second shot golf course. And I’m targeting guys who can make birdies in bunches. For my full card, listen to the 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson Picks podcast on the Golf Gambling Podcast. With that said, let’s get to it! Here are my top picks for the 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson.
2022 AT&T Byron Nelson Picks – Outright Bets
Justin Thomas – 12/1
JT has not won since the 2021 PLAYERS Championship. I’ll say it again. Justin Thomas. Has not won. Since the 2021 PLAYERS Championship. The PGA Championship is next week and the man needs to add majors to his resume. He should be laser focused on getting a win on the board before next week.
This isn’t just a narrative street take either. He is 2nd in the field this week tee-to-green and 3rd on approach over his last 24 rounds. He’s also Top 10 in the field in Birdies or Better % over his last 24 rounds. This is a very short outright price, so taking a patient approach might be the better avenue. If he gets off to a slow start on Thursday, you can always hop on at a better number. But Justin Thomas typically doesn’t get off to slow starts. 12/1 might be the best price we see on JT all week. Swallow your pride and pick JT at the top of your 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson betting card.
Jhonattan Vegas – 50/1
Jhonattan Vegas returned from injury last week with a vengeance. He gained over 8 strokes on the field last week despite losing almost 6 off-the-tee. Vegas gained over 10 strokes on the field with his approach play last week. While he gets in trouble off the box from time to time, I don’t think that matters at all this week.
Vegas finished 9th at TPC Craig Ranch in 2021. He should have positive vibes as he rolls onto the first tee. He’s also 6th in the field with his approach play and Birdies or Better % over his last 24 rounds. He’s a great pick to win the 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson.
Lanto Griffin – 66/1
Lanto Griffin is trending in the right direction. With a 15th at the Mexico Open and a T6 at last week’s Wells Fargo Championship, he’s heating up. Lanto’s iron play is razor sharp right now. There’s no indication he’s about to slow down this week.
The weakness in his game is around the green. But if you hit every green in regulation that won’t matter, right? That’s hyperbole, but TPC Craig Ranch yields high green in regulation rates. TPC Craig Ranch isn’t likely to expose his weaknesses around the green. At 66/1 why not bet on a really good iron player trending in the right direction. Pick him on your 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson betting card.
2022 AT&T Byron Nelson Picks – Other Props
Will Zalatoris Top 10 – +200
Another week and another Top 10 on a player I almost bet outright. Because Justin Thomas is on my betting card at 12/1, I couldn’t justify fitting a 20/1 Will Zalatoris on it too. But at +200, he’ll slot in nicely for a Top 10.
Everyone loves Zalatoris this week and for good reason. He’s long, he’s great with his irons and he can rack up a ton of birdies. You already know all these things, so don’t overthink it. Pick him for a Top 10 at a good price.
Other Top 10’s to Consider
- Tommy Fleetwood – +325
- Talor Gooch – +400
- Seamus Power – +450
Sahith Theegala Top 20 – +300
This kid is so easy to root for. And his game seems to be trending up again. Like any rookie, they experience their ups and downs in their first season. And after a rough stretch, he might be tightening up his game. Theegala gained over four strokes with his ball-striking in his last start at the Mexico Open. I think he keeps it up this week on a forgiving golf course. He’s locked in for a Top 20 pick on my 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson betting card.
Aaron Wise -1.5 Strokes (-110) over Matt Kuchar
I also considered betting Aaron Wise this week. But he’ll only appear in this matchup on my betting card.
I bet Kuchar to Top 20 last week and he flat out stunk. While he’s can get hot with his putter, I don’t think he’s a great fit for TPC Craig Ranch. Meanwhile, Wise is a stud and played excellent at the Mexico Open. He’s also Top 10 in the field tee-to-green and Top 15 in approach over his last 24rounds. Don’t overthink it. Pick the young stud over the old guy at the 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson.
