For those who missed it, check out the Farmers Insurance Open Preview and Betting Strategies for the types of golfers you should look to target for your picks. Using that as a guide, let’s take a look at some of the best bets to make this week. Here are my picks for the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open (odds courtesy of WynnBet):
Farmers Insurance Open Picks – Outright Winners
Sam Burns – 25/1
If you’re looking for a box checker at Torrey Pines, Burns is it. Burns has the length to keep up on the 7,600-yard golf course. He’s a great iron player and good with his long irons. He’s a good scrambler and a really good putter. And he has some good numbers putting on Poa in his career. Last year at the Farmers Insurance Open, he was in the mix heading into Sunday. A bad final round spoiled what would have been a great finish. Burns has a ton of tools in his bag to save strokes and score where he can on a tough and demanding golf course. He has two wins on his resume but is missing a statement one. He could pick it up this week at the Farmers Insurance Open.
Sungjae Im – 30/1
Like Burns, Sungjae has a complicated recent history with Torrey Pines. He was 6 shots behind Reed and Ortiz heading into the final round. But a front nine 31 sent him right up into contention. Unfortunately, a back-nine 42 sent him right back down it. Then at the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines, Sungjae was 5 back on a jam-packed leaderboard heading into Sunday. A good final round could have put some pressure on the leaders. But he shot 76 on Sunday to take him out of it too.
While his inability to close at Torrey Pines is concerning, he’s shown some glimpses of big upside on the golf course. He’s shown he can have some prolonged stretches of stellar golf at Torrey Pines. He also displayed some really big putting rounds on the tough poa greens too. And while Sungjae isn’t the longest guy off the tee, he has adequate pop to keep up. He’s tremendous with his long irons. And he’s a really good scrambler. All in all, Sungjae has a lot of ways to get around Torrey Pines. If he can find a little more consistency, he can take down the win.
Matthew Wolff – 66/1
In fairness, these odds don’t look great in the predictive models. Wolff is too volatile to justify 66/1 odds. Admittedly, it’s not a good price. But I can’t quit Wolff. He played so good last Fall, and it’s unlucky he couldn’t come away with at least one win. I’m willing to throw out last week’s performance at PGA West because his record on the Stadium Course has never been good. And I’m also willing to throw away the first round of the 2021 Farmers Insurance Open for him. Wolff was dealing with something early last year. Enough to see him play extremely poorly and take a prolonged break from golf. Anytime you’re dealing with mental health issues, you’re not going to play very good golf.
When he returned to golf, however, it was at last year’s U.S. Open at Torrey Pines. And he was tremendous. He was co-leader after 36 holes and 3 back heading into Sunday. A lackluster Sunday took him out of it. But he showed that he’s a good fit for the golf course when things are clicking. Wolff has the length both off the tee and with his long irons to succeed. He has good success on West Coast Poa. And his scrambling, once a weakness, has turned into a strength. Over his last 12 rounds, Wolff gains 0.78 strokes per round around the green. He had some good showings around the green in the fall. With that now in check, Wolff is becoming a more complete player. That’s why he found himself in contention a few times last Fall.
Close your eyes on his odds here. He checks a lot of boxes of a winner at Torrey Pines. Put him on your card.
Farmers Insurance Open Picks – Other Props
Scottie Scheffler Top 10 – +320
Early in the week, Scheffler could be had in the low 30’s for his outright. As the week has gone on, he’s been bet down to mid 20’s. If you were able to grab his outright early in the week at a better price, kudos for you. If you didn’t, you missed the boat.
But his Top 10 price is still tempting. Last year at the Farmers Insurance Open, Scheffler got off to an outstanding start. But a wild weather day on Friday on the South Course completely derailed him. He returned to Torrey Pines in the summer and finished T7 at the U.S. Open. While the agronomy conditions are different in June than it is in January, the golf course played very similarly tee-to-green. Bettors can feel confident that he can translate it to the Farmers Insurance Open. He is a balanced player with a good combination of length and accuracy off the tee. And he has a lot of very good skillsets. Another Top 10 is in order for him.
Others to Consider:
- Hideki Matsuyama – +230
- Tony Finau – +240
- Daniel Berger – +280
Luke List Top 20 – +260
Luke List will probably never win at Torrey Pines because he’s an abysmal putter. Guys who win at Torrey can successfully navigate the tricky poa greens. List isn’t that guy.
But List checks every other box needed to do well at Torrey Pines. Elite length off the tee. Great with his long approach shots. And a really good scrambler. That’s why List has four Top 40 finishes in his last four starts, including a pair of Top 10 finishes. Considering his recent form and good history, +260 on another Top 20 finish is a good pick for the Farmers Insurance Open.
Others to Consider:
- Joaquin Niemann – +360
- Alex Smalley – +550
- Mito Pereira – +550
- Taylor Moore – +600
- C.T. Pan – +750
Cameron Davis -125 over Rickie Fowler
It seems like Fowler’s T3 finish at the CJ Cup was just a blip. Many hoped that meant Rickie was starting to return to form. But he delivered an absolute nothing-burger last week at the American Express. And Fowler’s overall history at Torrey Pines is abysmal. After his T6 finish in 2013, Fowler has six missed cuts and hasn’t finished better than T53 in any of them. Meanwhile, Davis has a cookie-cutter template of what works at Torrey Pines. He has length. He hits his long approach shots well. And he’s a pretty good scrambler. That’s helped deliver Davis a pair of Top 40 finishes in his last two starts at Torrey Pines. Pick Davis to beat Fowler at the Farmers Insurance Open.
