Well, we have finally arrived…Week 18. Our first week 18! This will be the last post of the season for tracking Wong teasers. It’s been a great season with 7 weeks of the season going 100% and 10 weeks going above 80%! I will have a season recap post coming after week 18 so we can see how this year compared to the previous years with the addition of the new week of football.
This week we only have 3 plays as of today…to be expected with some players sitting out and some larger spreads out there. But we should be able to find some good value here with the teams that we have. But be sure to check the starters before placing your teasers.
Good luck and see you next year! If you think you know who’s going to win it all check out the Super Bowl odds 2022.
Let’s Talk About Teasers – Week 18
6 Point Teasers
Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong’s strategy:
– Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3
– Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.
NOTE: The original Wong Criteria do not include +3 or -9 but this is how the post was done previously so we will continue to use them. Over the past 3 years it has only made a difference of about 1.5% to include those.
It is not recommended to tease game totals
The reasoning behind this methodology is that games are frequently decided by a final margin of 3, 6, or 7. So we play teasers in such a manner that we gain these numbers in the teaser movement.
Sweetheart Teasers
10-point teasers are often called “sweetheart” teasers. Over the past three years, underdogs of +1½, +2, +2½ were 69-10 (87.3%). Favorites from -10 to -10.5 in a 10 point teaser have a record of 36-8 (87.8%) and -12 to -12.5 have been a perfect 11-0. After looking at a small sample size in 2017-2020, I’ve decided to track 10-point teasers according to the following methodology:
– For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;
– Tease the favorite at -10, -10½
– Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;
Historical Wong Teaser Stats
| Teaser | Year | Spread | Record | Win % |
| 6 pt | 2017 | +1½ thru +3 | 62-19 | 76.54% |
| 6 pt | 2018 | +1½ thru +3 | 55-17 | 76.39% |
| 6 pt | 2019 | +1½ thru +3 | 51-17 | 75% |
| 6 pt | 2020 | +1½ thru +3 | 55-12 | 82.09% |
| 6 pt | 2017 | -7½ thru -9 | 24-7 | 77.42% |
| 6 pt | 2018 | -7½ thru -9 | 17-3 | 85% |
| 6 pt | 2019 | -7½ thru -9 | 11-4 | 73.33% |
| 6 pt | 2020 | -7½ thru -9 | 23-3 | 88.46% |
| 10 pt | 2017 | +1½ thru +2½ | 34-7 | 82.93% |
| 10 pt | 2018 | +1½ thru +2½ | 32-3 | 91.43% |
| 10 pt | 2019 | +1½ thru +2½ | 33-5 | 86.84% |
| 10 pt | 2020 | +1½ thru +2½ | 31-5 | 86.11% |
| 10 pt | 2017 | -10 thru -10½ | 8-1 | 88.89& |
| 10 pt | 2018 | -10 thru -10½ | 10-1 | 90.91% |
| 10 pt | 2019 | -10 thru -10½ | 10-3 | 76.92% |
| 10 pt | 2020 | -10 thru -10½ | 8-0 | 100% |
Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. These are specifically for my book so yours may differ.
Weekly Wong Teaser Records 2017-2020
| Week | Record | Win % |
| 1 | 23-2 | 92% |
| 2 | 18-5 | 78.26% |
| 3 | 24-3 | 88.89% |
| 4 | 18-7 | 72% |
| 5 | 18-2 | 90% |
| 6 | 19-7 | 73.08% |
| 7 | 15-6 | 71.43% |
| 8 | 12-3 | 80% |
| 9 | 17-7 | 70.83% |
| 10 | 16-1 | 94.12% |
| 11 | 15-9 | 62.5% |
| 12 | 18-4 | 81.82% |
| 13 | 18-5 | 78.26% |
| 14 | 22-9 | 70.97% |
| 15 | 18-4 | 81.82% |
| 16 | 18-4 | 81.82% |
| 17 | 11-6 | 64.7% |
Week 17 Results
| Closing Spread | 6 Point | 10 Point |
| Dolphins +3 | LOSS | |
| Colts -8.5 | LOSS | |
| Chargers -8 | WIN | |
| Seahawks -8.5 | WIN | |
| Steelers +2 | WIN | WIN |
2021 Results
| Teaser | Line | Record | Win % |
| 6 pt | +1 ½ thru +3 | 60-18 | 76.92% |
| 6 pt | -7 ½ thru -9 | 21-4 | 84% |
| 10 pt | +1 ½ thru +2 ½ | 33-2 | 94.29% |
| 10 pt | -10 thru -10.5 | 14-2 | 87.5% |
| Week | Record | Win % |
| 1 | 4-3 | 57.14% |
| 2 | 4-0 | 100% |
| 3 | 9-0 | 100% |
| 4 | 5-2 | 71.43% |
| 5 | 8-2 | 80% |
| 6 | 5-1 | 83.33% |
| 7 | 4-1 | 80% |
| 8 | 3-0 | 100% |
| 9 | 4-0 | 100% |
| 10 | 3-4 | 42.86% |
| 11 | 1-3 | 25% |
| 12 | 7-0 | 100% |
| 13 | 6-0 | 100% |
| 14 | 7-0 | 100% |
| 15 | 4-2 | 66.66% |
| 16 | 5-1 | 83.33% |
| 17 | 3-2 | 60% |
As of Saturday, the unofficial list of Wong teasers this week are:
| Wednesday Spread | Total | 6pt Teaser Record since 2017 | 10pt Record |
| Titans -10 | 42.5 | 1-0 | |
| Buccaneers -8 | 41.5 | 2-1 | |
| Raiders +3 | 48.5 | 10-7 |
If you are interested in doing a little deeper dive into these bets continue below…
Regarding Game Totals < 49
Do totals matter? Another word of advice that some Wong bettors give is to only play games with low totals. The idea certainly makes sense: points are harder to come by in a low-scoring game, so the 6-point tease is worth more. But what does the data say about this in the last three years?
From 2017-2020, here are the statistics including playoffs:
| Bet | Record | Win % |
| Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 | 235-71 | 76.8% |
| Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) | 183-54 | 77.22% |
| Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) | 94-14 | 87% |
| Bet | Record | Win % |
| Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 | 82-18 | 82% |
| Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) | 66-16 | 80.49% |
| Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) | 17-2 | 89.47% |
If you wanted to look at only home favorites (Wong’s original criteria is home favorites):
| Bet | Record | Win % |
| Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 | 15-16 | 78.67% |
| Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) | 47-15 | 75.8% |
| Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) | 14-2 | 87.5% |
Here is where we will track this stat for 2021:
| Bet | Record | Win % |
| Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 | 60-18 | 76.92% |
| Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) | 43-12 | 78.18% |
| Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) | 8-4 | 66.67% |
| Bet | Record | Win % |
| Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 | 21-4 | 84% |
| Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) | 19-2 | 90.48% |
| Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) | 3-0 | 100% |
How to Bet These Games
There has been lots of questions and comments on how to bet these Wong teasers. I think there was some thought that doing a Round Robin of 2 or 3 team teasers of the matching games would be ideal. I am not convinced that makes sense.
For example, there are 6 matching in a certain week and only 1 team lost their tease. If you had done a round robin of 2 team teasers from those 6 matching games, you would have 15 possible teaser bets. In this scenario, if you had 5 out of 6 teams that won their tease, then you would be profitable. If only 4 out of 6 had won their tease, then you would have not broken even.
I think the recommendation is to pick and choose teams that match our criteria (and any other information you use to make an informed bet) and put those into a 2 or 3 team teaser bet.
