This week the boys head up to the RBC Heritage to play Harbor Town golf course. Similar to last week’s tournament at Colonial, we will see another stacked field. This will be the first time in the event’s history that the top six golfers in the world show up to compete.
With so many new faces playing this event, we have leaned less on course history and more on winning statistics. We expect golfers to start finding some form after the long break and will see a great weekend of golf. Let’s get into our picks.
RELATED
2020 RBC Heritage Odds, Picks, Winners and Prop Bets
Key Stats:
SG: Approach
SG: Putting (Bermuda Grass)
SG: Par 3 175-200
SG: OTT
SG: Around the Greens
Collin Morikawa – $ 10,000
Give me more of that Morikawa! Collin Morikawa is a name everyone should be familiar with, especially after last weekend’s heartbreaking playoff loss. We expect him to bounce back and find himself in contention again come Sunday.
Harbour Town is a comparable course to Colonial, where approach shots become significant. Collin ranks out 2nd in SG approach in the last 50 rounds. The break has also benefited his putter, where he gained 3.4 strokes on the field last week.
Gary Woodland – $8,500
The former US Open champ excels at courses like Harbour Town, where he can go less than driver off the tee. Gary’s approach game has been one of the best in golf ranking 6th over the past 36 rounds and he gained a ridiculous 8.8 last week.
The only thing we don’t like is that he went anti-Bryson and lost about 30 pounds over quarantine. We prefer a chubby Gary, but it seemed to work last week. At $8,500, he is one of our favorite plays of the week.
Tyrell Hatton – $8,000
We are hoping that Tyrell is this week’s, Daniel Berger. Hatton was on fire until the break winning the Arnold Invitational, placing 6th at WGC Mexico and 14th at WGC HSBC. We are hoping he picks up where he left off. Hatton ranks out 6th in our model and for the price and is a quality piece to your line up. He is 9th in Par 3 scoring at distance 175-200. He is also 14th around the green. I know when I break 100, I am chomping at the bit to get back out there, and after winning the API tournament I hope the same is true for Hatton.
Viktor Hovland – $7,600
Unpopular opinion alert, we hate Viktor Hovland’s smile and overly positive attitude…. but god damnit we love his approach numbers. Harbour Town is a second shot course and he ranks 12th in his past 36 holes and 15th last week. Viktor has been known to struggle around the greens, however last week at a course with tougher greens he gained almost a full stroke. Watch out for Viktor to be flashing that incredibly annoying smile come Sunday.
Joel Dahmen – $7,500
Put on your bucket hats, because we are team Dahmen this week. Joel put together a nice tournament at Colonial finishing in 19th place. He has had a nice string of strong finishes recently placing 19th, 5th,5th, and 14th. Joel even continued his hot hand placing in 8th in the Scottdale Open during the break. Joel was shooting buckets with his approach game last week gaining 5.2 strokes on the field. He also gained 4.6 strokes tee to green. We don’t believe in any hot hand fallacy with this pick and expect anything quality performance outta Joel.
Doc Redman – $6,400
We usually don’t dip too far below 7k, but this week we are looking to the young Doc Redman. He perfectly fits the approach and fairways narrative of Harbour Town and at too good of a price to pass up. In his last 36 rounds Doc ranks 14th in fairways and good drives gained, and 16th in strokes gained approach. In 16 starts in his first full season on tour he has made 14 cuts with 4 top 35 finishes. Doc seems to be on an upward trajectory and Harbour Town is the perfect course for him to breakout.
Fade
Jordan Spieth – $8,700
This past Sunday, I think most were cheering for Jordan Spieth. Every0ne loves a good comeback story and we have waited a long time for Spieth to figure out his game and become old Jordan again. After looking at the numbers though, you shouldn’t bet on it just yet. Last week he lost 1.4 strokes on approach and 1.1 tee to green. What saved him was his ability to putt. He finished first in the field. It is very difficult to keep that up week in and week out and without it being his saving grace, no one would be talking about Jordan being back.
Daniel Berger – $8,900
Clearly Berger is playing great golf right now coming off a playoff victory but similar to Jordan he gained 5.2 strokes putting last week. We don’t think he will be able to keep that up for another week, plus there is a good chance he is still hungover come Thursday. I know I would be I just won 1.3 million dollars.
