The AFC West is boiling ahead of Week 10, as all four teams are pretty much alive in the playoff hunt. The 6-3 Kansas City Chiefs are topping the standings, and Thursday Night Football between the Los Angeles Chargers and Oakland Raiders will tell us who’ll stay in the race for the division title.
Get ready for a ride but make your prop bets first.
Money Line/Total Double
Los Angeles Chargers & Over 49.5 at +260
Los Angeles Chargers & Under 49.5 at +240
Oakland Raiders & Over 49.5 at +260
Oakland Raiders & Under 49.5 at +260
The Chargers thrashed off the Green Bay Packers 26-11 in Week 9. Their defense was exceptional, allowing only 184 total yards to the Packers. Likewise, Melvin Gordon finally put on a strong performance, tallying 80 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries.
On the other side, the Raiders barely outlasted the Detroit Lions 31-24 at home. Hunter Renfrow scored a TD with 2:04 left on the clock to lift his team over the Lions. Rookie Josh Jacobs had another big game with 28 carries for 120 yards and a couple of touchdowns.
However, the Lions’ defense is one of the worst in the NFL. The Raiders will have a much taller task against the awakened Chargers. Melvin Ingram III and Joey Bosa combined for three sacks against the Packers, and the Chargers’ D was too much for Aaron Rodgers.
The Chargers allow 18.7 points per game and rank 8th in the league. They are 20th in rushing yards allowed (114.1), but this will change with Melvin Ingram back on the field. The Chargers allowed 45 rushing yards to the Packers and will be all over Josh Jacobs on Thursday night.
The Chargers are 4-0 straight up and ATS in their last four meetings with the Raiders. All these four contests went in the under. I think these trends will continue.
The Pick: Los Angeles Chargers & Under 49.5 at +240
Touchdown Scorers Anytime
Josh Jacobs -138
Melvin Gordon -138
Darren Waller +110
Keenan Allen +110
Tyrell Williams +125
Austin Ekeler +175
Hunter Henry +175
Mike Williams +175
Hunter Renfrow +200
The Raiders’ run defense is doing a good job. They’ve allowed only five rushing touchdowns through nine weeks. However, their secondary has been terrible, surrendering 22 receiving touchdowns which are the second-most in the league. On the other side, the Chargers have allowed six on the ground and 13 through the air.
Hereof, I would go with the Chargers’ receiving corps. The Raiders have surrendered six touchdowns to tight ends which makes Hunter Henry and interesting option. Henry had team-high seven receptions for 84 yards against the Packers. He scored two touchdowns this season, both against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 6.
Another interesting pick is WR Mike Williams who hasn’t scored thus far. Last year, Williams had 11 touchdowns. He also had 43 receptions for 664 yards, while this year, Mike already has 29 receptions for 530 yards. The clash with the Raiders is a perfect opportunity for Williams to finally find the end zone.
The Pick: Mike Williams at +175
Player Passing Touchdowns
Philip Rivers Over 1.5 at -160
Philip Rivers Under 1.5 at +120
Derek Carr Over 1.5 at -120
Derek Carr Under 1.5 at -120
As I’ve already mentioned, the Raiders’ secondary is a big issue. Philip Rivers is an experienced QB who will know how to take advantage of it. He’s tossed for 12 touchdowns so far, surpassing a 1.5-TD line in five of his nine outings this season.
Rivers is 18-8 in 26 games against the Raiders in his career. He’s tossed for 45 touchdowns in that span. Back in 2018, Rivers had four TD passes against the Raiders. The odds are not tempting, but Rivers looks like a sure shot.
On the other side, Derek Carr has 13 touchdown passes on the season. He’s thrown at least two in five of his eight appearances in 2019. Carr is 4-6 in ten meetings with the Chargers in his career, throwing for ten touchdowns in that stretch.
The Pick: Philip Rivers Over 1.5 at -160
A Take on the Game Itself
The Chargers looked poor through the first eight weeks. However, that terrific victory over Green Bay could be a turning point. Their defense should be a key factor against the Raiders. Oakland is a young and inexperienced team, so I expect the Chargers to win at -120 money line odds.
