For the second consecutive week, bettors are tasked to wager on a new tournament at a new golf course on the PGA Tour. Therefore, there is zero history to draw upon to try and narrow down a list of potential winners.
In order to do so, one must break down the golf course to try and guess what types of players will excel. For those who missed a breakdown of TPC Twin Cities, click here.
Using this knowledge, here’s who I like this week at the 2019 3M Open (with odds courtesy of mybookie.ag).
Bryson DeChambeau – 14/1: In his career, DeChambeau has been very up and down. He’s shown he can have prolonged stretches of elite play (see Summer and Fall of 2018) and stretches of very poor play (see Winter and Spring of 2019). Things are starting to click for him once again, though. DeChambeau closed out very strong at the Memorial, hung around for the first couple days at Pebble Beach and posted a very good performance at the Travelers a few weeks back. As the summer temperatures are getting hotter, so too is his putter. DeChambeau has demonstrated he can feast on these easy, gettable golf courses where birdies are plentiful, and as his form is trending upward he could be back in the winners circle this week.
Patrick Reed – 22/1: Speaking of players who are trending upwards – Captain America himself. Reed was in a huge funk in the middle of the season and was very lost with his game. He started to consult with David Ledbetter at the Valspar and there were even rumors that Reed went in for a putter fitting at a local shop in Detroit. Whatever tinkering he’s been doing, it’s working. Over his last three tournaments he’s gained 1.43 strokes per round on the field tee-to-green, and over half a stroke per round on the field putting over his last two tournaments. When he’s on, Reed can pour on the birdies and that’s definitely in the cards for him on a gettable golf course.
Tony Finau – 28/1: Placing a bet on Finau this week is one of faith instead of trust. In theory, Finau should feast on a golf course like TPC Twin Cities, one where with how long and straight he hits the ball he can bring to its knees. But his form lately has been really bad, as he’s missed the cut in three straight events. Nevertheless, he has shown many times in his career to be a birdie machine, something that will be needed to win the event. He’s talented enough to turn it on at any moment, and if that happens there’s not many guys in the field capable of beating him.
Keegan Bradley – 35/1: The question for Bradley this week is if his putter shows up. If it does, he could boat race the field like Lashley did at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. His ball striking is so on point right now that even with just above average putting he could well be in position for the win this week. But if he has a performance like he did at places like Pebble Beach or Quail Hollow where he’s losing multiple strokes per round on the greens, it’ll negate all that good ball striking he’s capable of having. Bradley should be feeling sore after reeling Chez Reavie in at TPC River Highlands, only to vomit all over himself on the 17th to give Chez the win. Look for Keegan to once again be in contention at a decent price at 35/1.
Sepp Straka – 125/1: Like Bradley, Straka’s hopes of winning his first event on the PGA Tour hinges on how the putter cooperates. Over his last four tournaments he’s gained over 1.5 strokes per round on the field tee-to-green, but has seen a couple tournaments sabotaged by poor putting. Last week he held it together on the greens quite nicely, gaining 1.4 strokes per round on the field with the flatstick. If he can keep the momentum going with his putter, Straka could make it the second consecutive longshot maiden winner in as many weeks.
Danny Lee -115 over Pat Perez: While I’m not all that bullish about Danny Lee, Pat Perez has seen his 2019 ruined by injuries and very poor form. He ranks near the bottom in almost all ball striking and proximity categories on the PGA Tour in 2019, and save for a brief stretch of good form in the spring he just has been a shell of himself. Danny Lee has been very up and down this year, but even if he delivers a sub-par performance he still can best Perez one on one this weekend.
Jason Dufner +1.5 Strokes (-135) over Luke List: While both golfers are struggling right now, Jason Dufner’s ball striking has been far superior to List’s over the last few tournaments. List’s putter has been his strength lately, which is not the norm given his overall career struggles on the greens. From tee-to-green, however, he’s lost almost 2.5 strokes per round to the field. While the putter has been Dufner’s kryptonite for the last few years and is bogging him down again, I have more faith that he can snap out of that funk for one week over List’s current woes with his ball striking.
Cameron Tringale +1.5 Strokes (-135) over Bud Cauley: Tringale was a guy I featured in the DFS column as someone who should have a good week. As for Cauley, his ball striking has slipped over his last few tournaments and he’s struggling with the putter. Tringale comes in as the hotter player and is getting strokes on Cauley on this prop. That’s the side to be on this weekend.