Greetings fellow prop market investors and Monday Night Football. Well once again the FitzMAGIC and the Bucs gave my lock another scare but for the first time this season I can tout a win in the lock column. What does that mean? More capital to invest in the Monday Night prop market.
As for the game at hand, it certainly appears to be a low scoring, “which offense can do something” game. Will the clapper AKA Jason Garrett decided to leverage his all world RB? Which version of this Titans will show up under the bright lights of Jerry World? For now, let’s dive into the matchup and identify inefficiencies in the prop market to get you paid on Monday Night Football.
Season: 24-25-1 (-1.9u)
MNF: 19-15-1 (+4u)
TNF: 5-10 (-5.9u)
2017 Season: 63-47-1 (+12.85)
Monday Night Football Game Info
Time: Monday, November 5th @ 5:15 PM Pacific
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Weather: 71f and clear
TV: ESPN (Joe Tessitore, Jason Witten, Booger McFarland, Lisa Salters)
Spread: Cowboys -5
Odds courtesy of MyBookie.ag
Monday Night Football Prop Bets – Five Ways to Get Paid
1. Zeke Elliot Over 89.5 Rushing Yards (-125) and 2. Zeke Elliot to score a TD (-140)
Im making a very large assumption that coming off the bye week Jason Garrett and his coaches have looked in the mirror and establish that they need to fee Zeke. While TEN is average at stopping the run (17th DVOA) it’s there pathetic standing on the defensive line (25th line yards) that makes me love this matchup. For all the same reasons I love Zeke to score as well. Feed Zeke, rinse and repeat, then head to the counter to cash this prop.
*Note if you want to juice the price up you can parlay the two in the prop builder.
3. Amari Cooper Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Jerry and the boys picked up a shiny new toy for the bargain price of a 1st round pick (which could easily turn out to be a top 10 pick). While Amari Cooper has been nothing short of a bust for the Oakland Raiders you can bet your ass that when Jerry pays up for a new toy, that new toy is going to be used. To compound this assumption the Titans are 31st against #1 WRs. This is a comically low total for a player with the skill set of Cooper, so let’s grab the over and enjoy Jerry ripping around the neighborhood in his new Ferrari (ok sure it’s more like a souped up civic, but you get the idea).
4. Dion Lewis Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Dallas has been tough against the run this year, but they haven’t done well defending the RB in the pass game (24th DVOA). Meanwhile the Titans have not committed to using Dion Lewis in a way that made him a key component to the Patriots dynamic offense. Again I think the bye week will give the Tennessee coaching staff the time needed to be introspective and look at the value Lewis provides in the short passing game. Look for this total to be crushed by halftime.
5. Total Punts Over 9.5 (-105)
Both these teams have been stuck in the mud of mediocrity this year and while I’m sure there will be some scoring drives in this game I also expect a number of three and outs. Punt passion is back on this Monday Night Football matchup.
Good luck and Let it Ride!!!