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First To Third: Seattle’s Regression, MadBum, & How To Actually Make Money On The Yankees

First To Third: Seattle's Regression, MadBum, & How To Actually Make Money On The Yankees

1.Seattle Finally Got Tested…And Failed

Much like Arizona, Seattle has been an identity-less team for the better part of a decade, holding one of the longest postseason droughts in all of sports. This season, even in the absence of Robinson Cano, and largely in part to the emergence of Jean Segura looking like a poor-mans version of Francisco Lindor, Seattle has taken the next step, finally. As I touched on in previous issues, Seattle has been incredibly “lucky” this season going 21-9 in one-run games, largely in part to their all-star closer, Edwin Diaz who is on a record-setting pace.

With all that being said, Seattle finally got to test themselves this week in a series against the red-hot New York Yankees, and well…they failed, everywhere. There is a large part of the professional population who think Seattle is prime for regression, especially in the second half, but as far as this series went, it wasn’t pretty. They were swept three games to none, being outscored 19-10 allowing seven runs in two out of the three games. Look, the pitching isn’t great, as Felix is no longer himself, but Paxton is a legit ace, and Wade Leblanc, although striking no one out still, still has a sub 2 ERA. Seattle is again tested in Boston this weekend.

2. Madison Bumgarner Is Back And Looks Himself

After missing the first two-plus months of the season, Madison Bumgarner has gotten better each time out this year which is a bit to be expected, as he started out with some pretty bad competition facing off against Arizona, Miami, LA, and San Diego, but again-he’s improving. Bumgarner is coming off eight scoreless innings and currently holds a 1-2 record with a 3.20 ERA. You know how good Bumgarner is, but what I want to dig into is his run support (or lack thereof.) Outside of the Miami Marlins game, The Giants have failed to score more than three runs for him in any start, which lines up as he usually faces another teams ace. I’d caution you against laying big numbers with him as he’s been a victim of low run support-much like Chris Sale for most of his career. Unders, not juiced money lines for MadBum.

3. The Yankees & Bets You Didn’t Think Of

New York’s “reloading” process has come much quicker than expected, however with the deep pockets that they have, that should have been somewhat expected. In truth, that’s probably not a fair analysis and a bit of a cop-out¬†though, as their best players are mostly homegrown outside of Giancarlo Stanton. Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Gleybar Torres to name a few. The big-ticket free agents do not hurt either though, as DiDi Gregorious, Giancarlo Stanton, and their entire pitching staff-especially the bullpen-is what I want to talk about.

New York’s bullpen is quite possibly the best of all time and has much to do with the league-leading 21 comeback wins The Yankees have had this season. Even if their sub-par starting pitching falters, they are literally never out of any game with the bullpen, and if they have a lead, the games are over early. Chapman, Betances, Robertson, Greene, Jones, and co. are the best group of relievers in baseball and it’s not close, so, how do we make money out of it?

One option is obviously live betting. The thing about New York is you should never be betting them in the first five market due to their bullpen being so much more talented than their starters. They have the most comeback wins in MLB and are on pace to shatter the single-season record for comeback wins in 2018. Wait on them, and if their starter falters, take them full game at a much better price than before first pitch.

The other option is a bet that you may not even know existed, yet most all offshore books will offer it, which is called a second-half bet. The first half of the game is obviously a first 5 inning bet, but a second-half bet is innings 6 through 9. Essentially the game starts over in inning number six, which is where your bet will begin. Every one of the relievers mentioned above has a sub-three-sometimes sub-two-ERA, and it’s a way to back the strength of the best bullpen in baseball.

A jack of all trades, Christian got his start in the gambling industry using a model to predict players performance in daily fantasy sports. Eventually, he used that same model to cross over into NFL handicapping, specifically the prop market and honed his craft enough to cross over from player projections into every aspect of sports Handicapping. He then made the full time move to Las Vegas to become a professional sports handicapper, utilizing his knowledge of all sports including NFL, NCAA, NBA, UFC, and MLB. He's currently the resident #DFS expert on The Sports Gambling Podcast as well as managing editor.

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