With two weeks in the books we can already say “Well I didn’t think Kevin Pillar would steal three bases in one inning, what did that pay?” Baseball provides so many unique opportunities that each day narrowing down solid plays can be a bit of a daunting task. But that’s what we here at the Sports Gambling Podcast are good for. Thoughts and musings so far:
Ohtani is worth the hype. Enough digital ink has been spilled on his historic start but let’s think of this in prop terms. Babe Ruth was the last pitcher to hit 10 home runs while logging more than 10 starts in a season. Ohtani started two games with three bombs in week one. I’m taking over ten home runs on the season all day but the real question is does he join the exclusive 15/15 club. My answer…yes. As much as I love this guy I would just like to reiterate one more time here “this is why they don’t count spring training numbers.”
Starting pitching is dead. I said it on the preview episode and I still think it. Pitchers have a shorter hook than ever which makes daily fantasy a pain in the ass. My advice is to take mid tier starters with high K rates. I can’t fathom sinking over $10k of my lineup into anyone right now. Even the top dogs. Better to target guys like Trea Turner and AJ Pollock for your lineup. Stolen base guys are way undervalued in DraftKings scoring system so load up on them accordingly. This weeks value pitchers to watch are Sean Manaea and Joey Lucchesi. Not gonna be the best guys but their price will free you up for good hitters.
From The Twitter Mailbag:
@40Pod asks: How can I go wrong fading Baltimore every game until the All Star break?
You can’t really. Their pitching is dreadful and the lineup pieces they do have are aging and one dimensional. In that division they’re looking like the early bottom feeder and there isn’t much hope coming on the farm. If you’re an O’s fan only thing to rejoice in this year is that they’re letting Manny Machado play short making his inevitable Yankees price tag that much higher. Fade all the way to the bank.
@SharpSmokeMeat asked: Of the top five current starting rotations, which one is most likely to regress (hard)?
So Pina and I were all over Braves on preview episode and despite their epic meltdown against Chicago I think they’ll be fine. Now they’re only ranked 11th in team ERA so far so not sure if that qualifies for your question. I’m going to say the Mets. Injury history alone tells me this is start is unsustainable and I don’t like any staff with this many 30 something guys backing them up defensively. The Travis D’Arnaud injury seals their fate as far as I’m concerned. Losing a catcher like that will hurt any club but the Mets especially need that with the AARP eligible lineup they’re trotting out there. Fade them now and take advantage of this hot start balancing itself out.
Thanks for reading everyone I’ll be back soon with more ramblings and strategy. Feel free to tweet any questions to @scott_bowser and I will respond here. Good luck!