NBA Win Totals Analysis
Big thanks to Rob Sawyer for going back to our original NBA Win Totals podcast and compiling the results. He’s got some great analytical insights into our picks.
Overall Record
Correct calls (out of 30 teams)
Green: 17
Kramer: 14
Connor: 13
Units Won
Green +1.67
Kramer -4.58
Connor -5.80
Point Spread Differential
There is a metric I call Point Spread Differential (not sure if this exists as something else), which is the difference in actual points vs spread points for your pick. For example, Kramer picked Over on the Celtics at 43.5 while the Celtics finished with 48 actual wins, giving him +4.5 on this metric, but Green picked Under on the same bet so he gets -4.5.
This is basically a measure of confidence, seeing “how right” you were across all of your bets. The sums of this metric are shown below.
Green +36.5
Kramer +21.5
Connor -34.5
So while Kramer had negative units, his point spread differential is positive, meaning the bets he lost were closer to the total than the bets he won.
Win Total Trends
When all three of you picked the same team you were 7-7
When Kramer and Green disagreed, Green went 7-4
When Kramer and Green agreed, they went 10-9
Kramer went 7-8 on Over picks and 7-8 on Under picks (picked 15 of each)
Green went 7-5 on Over picks and 10-8 on Under picks (picked 12 Overs, 18 Unders)
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