Week 7 is in the books, and we cruise into Week 8 of the NFL season. The good news? No international games. The bad news? There really isn’t any bad news. We still have 10 weeks of this before we get to the playoffs. However, we have another week of data and will continue to refine our approach to NFL betting analysis. As such, we have four plays on our card that you’ll want to lock up before the games kick off this weekend.
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How should I bet on the NFL this weekend? Week 8 Analytics & Trends
NFL Betting Analysis: Teams to Follow
Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills enter Week 8 off a bye week and get the Ravens coming to Buffalo. The Bills come into this game as a short favorite.
Buffalo enters this matchup with the most efficient offense in the league, but they also have the least efficient defense in the league. The Bills defense did get a little healthier with the week off. DT Ed Oliver and Edge Bradley Chubb should play on Sunday. That’s huge for a Bills defense that needs both players in the lineup. The extra week of preparation and having two players in their front seven healthy should help.
Another positive for the Bills defense is that Baltimore is 24th in the league in sack rate allowed. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is currently expected to play, but he’s coming off a high ankle sprain and may not be at the height of his powers. The Bills should find their way to Jackson in the backfield. Any pressure generated by the Bills up front will take the pressure off their questionable secondary.
On the offensive side, the Bills should move the ball against a Ravens defense that can be gashed through the air and on the ground. The key matchup is the Bills’ run offense against the Ravens’ run defense. Buffalo ranks third in rushing EPA per play, while Baltimore ranks 22nd in defensive rushing EPA allowed.
Buffalo has the clear advantage on the offensive end, and the home-field advantage, the rest advantage, and Baltimore’s leaky pass protection should help the Bills’ defense.
Best Bet: Buffalo Bills -3
Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals are off a win against Baltimore after a bye week. This week? Tennessee travels to Cincinnati. The Bengals are a heavy home favorite, but this is a game they should roll in.
Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is a tough matchup for most defenses, but the Tennessee Titans rank 24th in defensive passing EPA allowed. The Bengals are sixth in passing EPA per dropback. Burrow should shred a Titans pass defense that has proven to get torn apart by better teams. The Titans are also ranked 24th in defensive rushing EPA allowed, but the Bengals’ ground game isn’t nearly as efficient as their passing attack.
The Bengals have shown improvement on the defensive side this year. Cincinnati is fifth in the league in defensive passing efficiency allowed this season. Tennessee has one of the least efficient passing offenses in the league.
The Bengals catch Tennessee on the road and should make easy work of their poor defense and struggling passing game. Teams have struggled to cover large numbers this year, but this is one of the situations in which it makes sense.
Best Bet: Cincinnati Bengals -10
NFL Betting Analysis: Teams to Fade
Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs enter Week 8 off a road loss at Seattle. Kansas City has to travel to Denver this weekend. The Broncos have won three in a row since dropping a game on the road at San Francisco.
Denver has clear advantages against the Kansas City passing game. The Broncos have one of the more efficient secondaries in the league, and they have a capable pass rush. The concern for Denver is that their rush defense hasn’t been great. Kansas City has the best rushing attack in the league this year, but they just got stopped by Seattle. The Chiefs have real issues on their offensive line. Their left tackle situation has been a mess, and their interior offensive line hasn’t been as strong as it has in years past.
On offense, the Broncos have been one of the best teams in the league in protecting their quarterback, while the Kansas City Chiefs are 30th in pass rush generation. Denver quarterback Bo Nix should have all day to throw against the Chiefs’ secondary. Denver also has a rushing attack ranked in the top 10.
The Broncos need to focus on defending the run on early downs and rely on their pass defense and pass rush to handle third-down situations. The Broncos should be able to move the ball on offense, and they have home-field advantage, and the Chiefs have to play at elevation. Let’s keep fading Kansas City until they get back to Arrowhead Stadium.
Best Bet: Denver Broncos +1.5
Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys are off a road win at Philadelphia and get to face the Arizona Cardinals in Dallas this weekend. Arizona is off a blowout loss at home. Dallas has a better record, but the advanced metrics indicate that this game is a bit closer than the line would have you believe.
The Cowboys have a defense that ranks at the bottom or near the bottom of the league in most advanced metrics. Dallas ranks 30th in defensive EPA per play allowed, 30th in defensive passing EPA per dropback, and 29th in defensive rushing EPA per carry. The Cardinals have weapons on offense, and quarterback Jacoby Brissett is a capable distributor. Brissett can struggle against a heavy pass rush, but Dallas ranks 29th in hit-or-sack rate. The Cardinals should keep a clean pocket, and Brissett should be able to pick the Cowboys apart. The Cowboys have struggled against tight ends in particular. Cardinals tight end Trey McBride could be in for a day against the Cowboys’ pass defense.
On defense, the Cardinals rank eighth in the league in rushing EPA per carry, but have struggled against the pass. Arizona should bottle up the Cowboys’ ground attack. However, they may get gashed through the air by Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott. This game could evolve into a shootout, and the backdoor cover should be in play for a Cardinals team that can pile up yards.
Best Bet: Arizona Cardinals +7
The Sports Gambling Podcast
For more analysis of every NFL game in the 2026-27 season, tune in to the Sports Gambling Podcast. Sean “Stackin’ The Money” Green and Ryan “Real Money” Kramer talk about each game on the entire slate. Listen for input on ATS and moneyline NFL picks every week!
