OVC Preview: 2026-27 College Basketball Predictions & Best Bets Recap
Ryan McIntyre (@Moneyline_Mac) and Troy Chewning (@Troychewning) break down the OVC college basketball preview for 2026-27. Both see Tennessee State running away with the Ohio Valley again, and both think Morehead State takes a step back this year.
Tennessee State Ran Through Evansville
Preview number seven of 32 lands in the Ohio Valley, and Ryan McIntyre has history here from his Austin Peay days. He was in Evansville for the OVC title game this year, too. Tennessee State held the one seed and the double bye, then routed UT Martin in the semifinal. The final went even worse for Morehead State. So Nolan Smith went from first-year hire to regular season and tournament champion in one shot. Troy Chewning kept the explanation simple, because Tennessee State has the money and it shows. Mac also pointed out that the program carries the most veteran staff in the league, with high-major experience and a steady pipeline of fourth and fifth year transfers.
There’s also a receipt from last season worth bringing up. On opening night, Mac took UT Martin on the moneyline at 14 to one, and it cashed. Troy admitted he blindly tailed, and plenty of the chat did the same. Mac’s point is that early-season moneylines in these leagues are undervalued. The previews show which teams bring back continuity and which coaches win buy games. So the pick show is worth your time once these previews wrap, because that window opens fast.
Barone, Shulman And The Coaches To Watch
The coaching board starts with Nolan Smith, a former Duke player who won the league going away in year one. Jonathan Maddox broke through at Morehead and heads into his third year. Then come the veterans. Marty Simmons runs Eastern Illinois after a stint at Evansville, and Gerdeman enters year eight at Lindenwood. Meanwhile, Brad Corn, a K-State and Bruce Weber guy, has SEMO in solid shape. Then there’s Chad Boudreaux, in year four at Western Illinois after starting out as the interim. Southern Indiana’s coach is in year seven after guiding the jump from D2 to D1, though the last couple of seasons have been rough.
Troy circled the year three and four coaches, since that’s where mid-major programs tend to pop. His two names were Brian Barone at SIUE and Jeremy Shulman at UT Martin. Barone has 41 wins over the last two years and no losing season since ’22. He also took Edwardsville to the NCAA tournament two years ago, after the program’s own move up from D2. Shulman is heading into year three with his Euro squad, and Troy likes him sticking to that plan. And Mac backed it up, because Shulman was a great junior college coach in Florida before this job.
Stock Up, Stock Down
For stock up, Troy went with Brad Corn and SEMO. Marcus Bell is back, and Fontaine Williams arrives as a pretty good D2 scorer. He also likes SIUE on returning minutes, which he calls the last thing you can properly handicap with the transfer portal where it is. Palo King and Darrian Baker are the ballers there. Mac took Edwardsville too and then went back to his Screaming Eagles. Southern Indiana is the second oldest team in the league behind Tennessee State. Mac doesn’t see a fourth straight bad year for a coach with 300 career wins. And Troy noted that better shooting alone would make them a significantly better team.
Stock down was the easy one, because both guys landed on Morehead. Mac likes Maddox, a friend of the program he coached against, but Morehead loses a ton of production off a magical year. So he sees them back in the middle of the pack. Troy agreed, while noting that any Morehead ranking is really a bet on Maddox himself. His read is a 25 to 30 percent dip, not a Nike-style 70 percent collapse. Troy also floated Lindenwood, since a roster full of name-school transfers can cause friction in the smaller leagues. Mac still trusts Gerdeman and keeps Lindenwood around the middle.
The OVC College Basketball Preview Rankings One Through Nine
Nobody is dethroning Tennessee State, and neither host pretended otherwise. Mac thinks this roster is more talented than last year’s, and the deepest, most athletic team in the league by a wide margin. The only nitpick is ego, with so many Power Four and Power Five transfers on one bench. But a last chance U setup, one year to prove it and get paid, works for him. Troy pointed to Artulio Morris, a big-name add who was inches from going to Kansas. Then both guys put Edwardsville second and SEMO third. Mac sees 11-5 for each in a 16-game league slate, maybe 10-6.
UT Martin goes fourth on both boards, and Troy was the one who put them there. The Skyhawks finished fourth last year and reached the semifinals, so a repeat makes sense. After that the boards split. Troy kept Morehead fifth, and Mac initially agreed that Morehead has too much pedigree to leave the top five. Then Mac flipped it, with Southern Indiana fifth and Morehead sixth because the Screaming Eagles are so old. He still expects Morehead to go .500 in the league at worst. Down low, Troy went Eastern Illinois seventh on NAIA transfer Devin Davenport, then Lindenwood and Western. Mac has Lindenwood seventh, with Eastern and Western eighth and ninth because of thin resources.
Tennessee State At Plus-167 Is The Bet
Tennessee State is the pick to win the conference tournament, and the awards lean the same way. Troy penciled in Tyler Johnson, who comes in from San Diego, for player of the year. Mac floated Josh Rivera, then went with Aaron Bradshaw, who has already been through Memphis, Ohio State and Kentucky. Troy opened with Barone for coach of the year. Then he guessed a coach of the year market would have you laying something like 500 to 700 on Smith. So Mac switched to Smith, because he sees Tennessee State going 14-2 as a heavy favorite.
The only way Mac sees them losing is a freak shooting night. Picture a three for 27 game from deep while SEMO, SIUE or UT Martin gets hot. Troy thinks a sleepwalk spot against a lower team is more likely than a contender punching up. Mac still has them stumbling once, maybe at Edwardsville or SEMO, and Troy added Martin to that list. Then Troy checked Kalshi and found Tennessee State at plus-167. There’s no volume on it yet, so he called it an easy position to take. Mac agreed they’re going to run away with the league, and his advice was to get in on that.
Podcast Chapters
00:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
01:11 Welcome to the College Basketball Experience
03:40 Tennessee State and Morehead Last Year
06:22 OVC Coaches: Nolan Smith, Barone & Shulman
09:40 Stock Up, Stock Down: SEMO, Edwardsville & Morehead
16:50 One Through Nine: Tennessee State, Edwardsville, SEMO
24:56 Tennessee State, Player of the Year & Coach of the Year
29:57 Tennessee State on Kalshi at Plus 167
30:29 Sign-Off
