We’ll be halfway through the college football season when Week 7 is over. It feels like Week Zero was just a few weeks ago, and power programs wrecked FCS schools in the non-conference slate. By this time next month, we’ll be deep into the conference slate and start to have an idea of what the College Football Playoff will look like. However, we still have a ton of fresh data from last week and have an entire slate for Week 7 to go through. The college football analysis for the upcoming week is right after the banner.
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How should I bet on college football this weekend? Week 7 Analytics & Trends
College Football Betting Analysis: Teams to Follow
Oregon State Beavers
Aside from two losses to Big 12 teams in Week 1 and Week 2, the Oregon State Beavers have been absolutely destroying their opponents. The Beavers beat Montana by 35, UTEP by 26, Colorado State by 30, and San Diego State by 52. There’s a non-zero chance this is the last time the Beavers will allow fewer than 20 points at home this year.
Oregon State’s passing offense is a terrible matchup for the Washington State pass defense. The Beavers have the 11th-best EPA/pass ratio in the country. Washington State’s pass defense? They’re rated as 57th in the country in EPA/pass ratio against. Oregon State quarterback Braden Atkinson can absolutely sling it, and he should find plenty of gaps in the Wazzu secondary.
When the Cougars have the ball, they’re going to struggle to score. Washington State has one of the worst scoring offenses in the country. The Cougars have yet to break 20 points in a single road game this year.
The handicap here is simple. Oregon State can move the ball and get stops. Washington State is very limited offensively and will struggle with the Beavers’ passing attack.
Best Bet: Oregon State -18.5
UCLA Bruins
UCLA is off a huge road win as an underdog. It’s been a system play to fade teams off massive wins. However, if there’s one team that’s not going to suffer a letdown, it’s Bob Chesney’s Bruins.
UCLA will be without starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava, but the Bruins should be able to keep their season on track with backup Ty Dieffenbach. Dieffenbach started a few games last season at Cal Poly and looked solid in relief. The good news for Dieffenbach is that star running back Wayne Knight isn’t going anywhere. Knight averages over seven yards per carry and has racked up 10 touchdowns on the ground this year.
Wisconsin has a solid run defense, but they also have a tough travel spot. The Badgers have to travel from Madison, WI, to Los Angeles for this matchup. That’s a long flight for a college football team to take and then turn around and play a game.
UCLA needs to continue to run the ball effectively, get their defense off the field, and not ask Dieffenbach to do too much in his first start at the FBS level. It looks like UCLA sees the playoff spot at the end of the year and needs to continue to stack wins. Let’s lock up Bob Chesney and these Bruins to get the win and the cover at home this weekend.
Best Bet: UCLA -2.5
College Football Betting Analysis: Teams to Fade
Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia looked unbeatable against NC State in Week Zero, but have crashed back to earth since. The Cavaliers have to travel to Dallas for a game against SMU this weekend. Virginia is walking into a bad matchup.
First, the Cavaliers have really struggled to move the ball through the air this year. Virginia is only 72nd in passing success rate this year, while the SMU defense is 11th in passing success rate against. The Mustangs are really good at forcing teams into bad passes, and Virginia is all too willing to make bad passes.
When SMU has the ball, they should be able to use their big play passing game effectively against Virginia. The Mustangs have one of the most efficient passing attacks in the country. Virginia has been solid against the pass this year, but the Cavaliers have several key injuries that may allow SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings to find soft spots. The Cavaliers will be without at least one starting cornerback and one of their starting defensive ends. They may also be missing their strong safety and have another cornerback playing on an ankle injury.
The road spot and the matchups favor SMU, and Virginia is a team we’ll look to fade this weekend.
Best Bet: SMU -8.5
Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas travels to Manhattan, KS for the Sunflower Showdown against Kansas State this weekend. This means that Kansas quarterback Isaiah Marshall will be starting on the road in a hostile environment.
Kansas can generate big plays on offense, but Isaiah Marshall struggles with accuracy and decision-making at times. The Kansas State defense has struggled this year, but Marshall only completes 53.9% of his passes, and he’s been prone to throwing interceptions. K-State has struggled to defend the pass this year, but Marshall could help them out if he comes out wild.
Kansas State has the more efficient offense, but Kansas is much better defensively. However, we just watched the Jayhawks struggle against the Utah offense and their mobile quarterback. If Avery Johnson can keep the Kansas defense off-balance with his legs and open up the play-action passing game, the Wildcats can do enough to move the ball here. The Kansas State ground game has a moderate advantage over the Kansas run defense according to the metrics.
Given the hostile environment, concerns about the Kansas offense, and short number, the play here is to fade the Jayhawks on the road in a rivalry game.
Best Bet: Kansas State -4.5
The College Football Experience
For more analysis of every college football game in the 2026-27 season, tune in to The College Football Experience. Colby Dant and Moneyline Mac talk about each game on the entire slate. Listen for input on ATS and moneyline college football picks every week!
