Monday Night Football Props + NFL Week 5 Recap
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) run through the NFL Week 5 recap, from the Giants and Commanders tie to Nick Sirianni’s kickoff call against the Jags. Then they break down their Monday Night Football props for Bills vs. Rams.
Sean’s Eagles Cover, Sirianni Takes The Blame
Sean Green watched the Eagles from a Chicago hotel room in his boxers the morning after his wife ran the marathon, and it went about how his season has gone. Philly lost 19-17 to Jacksonville. Getting eight points meant the cover was never in doubt, but the loss came down to one decision. After the late field goal with eight seconds left, Nick Sirianni kicked it in play instead of taking a touchback. The Jags had no timeout, the return got them into field goal range anyway, and Sirianni said afterward he lost the game with that call. Ryan Kramer actually backs the coach here. Put Jacksonville at the 35 with eight seconds and they get two plays, but a long return burns the clock, so the Jags had to thread a needle to win it.
The bigger worry is the offense. The Eagles ran for 22 yards on 18 carries, 1.22 a pop, which Kramer pointed out is the worst game in Jeff Stoutland’s last decade running the line, over 181 games. Sean isn’t shocked, because the third-string back got hurt, the fourth-stringer finished, and three guys on the line had never started a game. Jalen Carter also wrecked the Jags with two strip sacks and got no fumble luck for it. So the defense played its tail off and the Birds still sit at 2-3. But they’re only one win behind the Giants, and Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith look set to return against Carolina. There are four winnable games before the bye. If the offense is still this bad by then, Sean wouldn’t be shocked to see a new coordinator.
Thursday night set the tone for the NFC East. Dallas lost 24-17 to Tampa Bay with no win and no cover, and Bucky Irving had a big night. Kramer is done pretending Brian Schottenheimer has turned the corner. His read is simple. This team lives and dies with Dak because the defense is a liability and the new offensive line can’t get a run game going, so anything short of a near-perfect game from the quarterback is a loss. They even got a near-perfect one against the Giants in Week 1 and still lost. Kramer also calls this the season of the backup quarterback, but that theory took a hit Sunday when Bagent and the Bears got run over in Green Bay.
Dick Puncher Owns The Bears At Lambeau
Green Bay won 31-7, so Kramer cashed the Packers while Sean’s Bears ticket went down with Monangai sitting out. The Discord line did the rest. Bears fan Olan called in after six hours of drinking to point out that the Packers beat a backup quarterback, and Chicago is still 3-2 after starting three different quarterbacks in five games. Dick Puncher wasn’t having it. He gave out the Packers and a Packers alt line at minus five and a half on the pregame show. Then he rattled off the receipts: 360-plus passing yards from Love, the most ever by a Green Bay quarterback against the Bears at Lambeau, even with multiple missed field goals and a missed extra point. Ben Johnson, per Dick Puncher, is now 2-6 against the NFC North in the regular season.
Kramer had his own angle. These tragic magic spots haven’t been good this year, and Chicago in the first game after Ditka’s passing makes back-to-back mega spots that flopped, after New Orleans got blown out on Katrina day. It’s one to track. Then Niwo checked in from Cleveland, at peace with the Browns loss and riding a great Sunday. He cashed Jameis Winston three touchdown passes live at plus 2,800. He also has a $5 ticket stacking Winston, Joe Burrow, Brissett and Josh Allen at three touchdown passes each that pays 2,400. Kramer thinks Allen’s bad leg forces Buffalo to throw, with a total of 54, though he respects this Rams defense. Sean added that the Rams have allowed about six touchdowns to receivers.
Steelers, Jets And The Rest Of The NFL Week 5 Recap
Pittsburgh beat the Colts 34-22 for the win and the cover. That was one of Sean’s locks, and Kramer was on the Steelers too. Jaylen Warren led the game in receiving yards and added 100 on the ground. Sean also cashed Daniel Jones under 10.5 rushing yards from the props show. Kramer’s takeaway is the deep ball. Jones had a high average depth of target, which burned Kramer when Tyler Warren cleared his 18.5 longest reception, but it also means Jones is sitting in the pocket longer and taking hits. So Kramer plans to hunt touchdowns against this Colts team for the rest of the season.
The Jets beat Cleveland 17-12 for the win and the cover, and Sean’s only regret is not betting more of it. He had the Jets on the show and expected a big Braelon Allen game, which showed up as 24 for 116 and a touchdown. Garrett Wilson added 104 receiving yards. The Browns look like the classic Browns, play them at home and fade them on the road. But Kramer won’t call them dreadful, because a couple of Jets plays decided it, and the guys will probably like Cleveland with the points against Baltimore next week. Miami lost to Cincinnati, and the guys’ pick at seven pushed after a late touchdown and a missed extra point. It was a backdoor that got backdoored.
Minnesota beat New Orleans 23-13 to move to 5-0, and caller Japan, who was at the game, cashed Justin Jefferson anytime touchdown. The Saints keep losing at home, and their quarterback threw two picks. Kramer sees some of last year’s Colts in these Vikings and wouldn’t be surprised by a slide, but the defense makes him hesitate. Meanwhile New England crushed Las Vegas 45-17. The Raiders were 4-0 against the spread and came out flat, which Sean admits looks like an obvious letdown spot in hindsight. Kramer called it a Josh McDaniels masterclass and came away impressed by a short-handed Patriots defense.
Giants Grab A Tie, Lions Cash Drew Lock
Kramer’s Giants tied Washington 27-27 in wet conditions, and he will defend it. New York was down 14, Jameis Winston was rough in the first half, the kicker went 2 for 5 (two of the misses came from 55 and 57 yards) and they lost three fumbles. Then the Commanders had the ball in field goal range with a minute left and no timeouts. They ran two plays and scored zero points. Jayden Daniels snapped it, sensed pressure and went down, and the clock ran out while rookie Arvell Reese waved teammates back onside. With 60 seconds to go the Giants’ win probability was zero. They still picked up ground in a bad division and sit in first place.
Houston rolled Tennessee 26-3, a Kramer lock laying 7.5 that Sean also played. DeMeco Ryans calling the defense again meant field goals with Ka’imi Fairbairn instead of fourth-down tries, and the Titans never threatened. Kramer thinks Tennessee would be better with Mitchell Trubisky right now. Houston also sent a second-rounder for Marvin Harrison Jr., and Kramer is intrigued by the big-body fit next to Nico Collins and Jayden Higgins for C.J. Stroud. Then Denver covered the 3.5 in a 23-17 win over the Chargers, kicking two late field goals after a fumble and an interception. Kramer figures someone has to take the blame for that offense, and it probably won’t be Herbert.
San Francisco won 32-29 in Seattle, and Sean put it on bad Sam Darnold, between two interceptions and an end-zone fumble that became a 49ers touchdown. It’s also why he was under on the Seahawks’ win total, because holding focus after a Super Bowl run is hard. Detroit then beat Arizona 45-21, another Kramer lock, once the Lions figured out they could pressure the quarterback. The guys finally cashed Jared Goff anytime touchdown, while Cardinals fan Trevor wants it all burned down. Finally, Baltimore won 30-23 in overtime as a 3.5-point dog after Penix got knocked out and Tua threw a game-ending pick, so Kramer is ready to pull his Tua passing-leader ticket from the futures safe.
Rams-Bills Monday Night Football Props
Kramer opens Monday night with Davante Adams over 4.5 receptions at plus 108. Adams has seen 10, 13 and 9 targets in his last three games with eight, seven and four catches, and that four-catch game came against an Eagles secondary he won’t see this week. Buffalo isn’t locking down receivers, so the number looks low. Sean then took Kyren Williams over 15.5 yards on his longest rush, and Kramer is on it too. The Bills have allowed it in three of four games and rank bottom five in stuff rate, while the Rams’ line is top five. Williams’ snap share also went up big last week.
Sean’s second play is Matthew Stafford to throw an interception at roughly minus 110. Stafford has six touchdowns and six picks in four games, he threw two against the Eagles, and Sean thinks he throws more of them in prime time. Kramer went the other direction with a Stafford rushing ladder: over 1.5 rushing yards at plus 117, 10 or more at plus 409, and 15 or more at plus 850. The angle is that Buffalo has handed out rushing yards to quarterbacks, with C.J. Stroud at 15, Justin Herbert at 17 and Drake Maye at 54. He also had a vivid dream about a Stafford long run, and he remembers Stafford doing sprints in warmups at SoFi.
Sean closes with a Clutch Parlays special, Dawson Knox over 10.5 receiving yards, plus a small sprinkle on his anytime touchdown at 6-1. For the Underdog entry, the guys pair Kyren Williams’ longest rush over 15.5 with James Cook’s longest rush over 15.5, because Kramer thinks Monday could be a Cook day on the ground. On first touchdowns, both hosts take Khalil Shakir at 18-1 and Knox at 40-1. Sean adds Keon Coleman at 18-1, and Kramer takes stabs at Stafford around 90-1 and Davis Allen at 50-1. Then come the degen plays. Sean rides caller Japan’s Shakir angle with Shakir two touchdowns and Bills minus 6.5 at 47-1, and Kramer finishes with Stafford 10 rushing yards and a touchdown at 65-1.
Watch: Cowboys-Buccaneers Week 5 TNF QB Props!
Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
0:43 Chicago Marathon, Locks & Haters Parlay
4:10 Cowboys Loss, Eagles & Jags Kick Decision
18:46 Discord Line: Bears-Packers With Olan & Dick Puncher
31:32 Niwo Calling In From Cleveland
33:06 Josh Allen Three Touchdowns
35:15 Steelers Cover, Jets Win, Dolphins Push
40:58 Vikings, Saints, Japan
43:58 Khalil Shakir Anytime Touchdown
46:05 Patriots, Raiders, Mendoza
48:22 Giants Commanders Tie
54:59 Texans, Titans, Marvin Harrison
58:39 Broncos, Chargers, Mike McDaniel
1:00:56 Seahawks Lose at Home to 49ers
1:03:08 Cardinals Destroyed by Detroit
1:04:51 Cardinals Fan Trevor in the Discord
1:09:50 Ravens Get It Done in Overtime
1:13:53 Davante Adams Over 4.5 Receptions
1:15:14 Kyren Williams Longest Rush
1:16:51 Matthew Stafford to Throw an Interception
1:17:29 Matthew Stafford Rushing Yards Ladder
1:20:25 Dawson Knox Receiving Yards and Underdog Entry
1:22:34 First Touchdowns
1:26:09 Thank You for Participating in the Sports Gambling Podcast
