Thursday Night Football Week 5 Prop Bets Recap
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) are joined by Scott Reichel (@ReichelRadio) from the Prop Cast for their Thursday Night Football Week 5 prop bets on Bucs at Cowboys. Most of the card fades the Dallas defense, and it ends with some big long shots on Jalon Daniels.
Bijan, Brian Robinson And A Vegas Dinner Worth The Walk
Ryan Kramer opens with a victory lap he didn’t actually cash. He admits his handicap of the Bijan and Brian Robinson rushing attack was so strong he should have just played it outright. Listeners did it for him, sliding screenshots into his DMs of Bijan first touchdown tickets stacked with Brian Robinson. Sean Green is still kicking himself for passing on Robinson after the night he had, while Ryan has Robinson on about 70% of his teams. Bijan, meanwhile, just keeps dominating prime time.
The rest of the cold open is a Vegas hangover in every sense. A Spotify commenter wanted to know why Sean sounded a little faded on the last episode, and Ryan walks through the evidence: an 8 AM Friday arrival in Vegas, a full day of college football, a show, an early flight home into a pregame show, the Eagles getting crushed and then CJ’s birthday party. Earlier in the trip, the guys and producer Johnny kept walking toward the Arts District during First Friday while everyone else was heading the other way after reports of an active shooter. They had a reservation with listener Jake. So they ended up in a nearly empty restaurant where they never had to order, eating a Reuben stuffed in an egg roll and a tomahawk steak sliced for the table.
Scott Reichel from the Prop Cast joins as the guest, still processing another Yankees exit that he says feels like the same Twilight Zone episode he has watched for 15 or 16 years. His comp is the Phillies. Both teams have star power, no fundamentals and a habit of losing in the playoffs. Then he pivots to the NBA, where he’s repping the Nets and their 23.5 win total after cashing the under by half a game last year. His teased hot take is that Boston finishes with more regular season wins than Philly. Sean’s counter is to let Embiid play home games only, which somehow turns into Ryan defending the helicopter ride he took to Catalina for his daughter’s youth soccer.
Thursday Night Football Week 5 Prop Bets On Bucs At Cowboys
Scott opens the card by attacking a Cowboys defense he calls an absolute joke, even after Dallas won last week. His pick is Jalon Daniels over 174.5 passing yards at -115. That number is way too low in a dome against a defense allowing 389 yards per game, third most in the league. Daniels threw for only 140 yards in his first start, but that came against a Packers defense allowing the fourth fewest passing yards per game. Also, both game scripts work. If Tampa keeps it close, Daniels is throwing, and if Dallas blows it open as a 6.5-point favorite, garbage time does the rest. C.J. Stroud already shredded this secondary, and Nico Collins scored twice in his first game back.
Sean stacks the rushing side on top of it with Daniels over 43.5 rush yards. Yes, it’s a big number for a quarterback. But Dallas leads the league in rush yards allowed to the position at 188. Some of that is schedule, since Jackson Dart ran a bunch and Lamar got 50, and Sean cashed C.J. Stroud over 11.5 on the Prop show by the hook with 12 yards. Ryan sees a Tyrod comp in the way Daniels moves, throws and puts his body on the line. Sean adds that Daniels went 19 of 27 in his debut, right around 70% for a rookie making his first start. So the guys want the over on both the passing and the rushing.
Ryan’s angle is Ted Hurst over 22.5, because Hurst has cleared that number in every game he’s played: 36, 27, 40 and 25. The targets funneled to Cade Otton and Chris Godwin last week, and if Dallas gets Joey Porter Jr. back, Ryan wonders whether Hurst draws him. He still trusts the deep to intermediate routes. When Daniels has time to step into a throw, he can fire it. Ryan also flags a weird note for later, because third-string back Sean Tucker played three snaps last week and all three turned into red zone touches.
Scott stays in the middle of the field and grabs Chris Godwin over 3.5 catches at +135, a price he calls generous. Godwin caught four balls in Daniels’ first start and has four catches in three straight road games, working out of the slot on short and intermediate stuff as the security blanket. Sean then takes Cade Otton over 27.5 receiving yards off six targets last week. Meanwhile, Ryan brings a Bucs beat breakdown (he thinks it was the Pewter Report) showing Tampa ditched heavy personnel against Green Bay, with Payne Durham barely playing and three-receiver sets taking over. The open question is whether that was the Packers or Daniels. Either way, Otton looked like part of the plan.
Ryan doubles down on Godwin but plays the yards, over 27.5 receiving yards, because he wants the upside of a Cowboys defense that can’t tackle. He watched Dallas miss tackles against the Giants, again against the Commanders and then really miss them against the Ravens. So yards after the catch should be there. Daniels sprayed his outside targets around and deep, but the middle of the field belonged to Godwin and Otton. Ryan’s stated goal is to fade the Cowboys from every direction in the passing game, and this one fits right into it.
Fading Javonte Williams And Picking Off Dak
Scott finds another way to fade Dallas, even though he still thinks the Cowboys win the game. His pick is Javonte Williams longest rush under 15.5 yards at -115. Williams hasn’t had a 14-plus-yard run in seven of his last nine games, and Tampa allows just 3.2 yards per carry, second fewest in the league, with Vita Vea clogging the middle. Sean piles on with a Clutch Parlays projection and takes no Javonte Williams touchdown at +180. The Bucs have allowed one rushing touchdown to a running back all season. Williams has scored in three of his four games, but Sean frames this as a bet on the Tampa front showing up. Ryan’s warning is that a Derrick Henry touchdown torched a similar bet of his right away this week.
Ryan’s final prop is his favorite market, a plus-money interception, and he has Dak Prescott throwing a pick at +110. His last one didn’t get home despite expected interceptions around 2.5. Still, he thinks the Bucs front will feel like it can beat up the Dallas offensive line with Rueben Bain Jr. essentially off the injury report and getting full practices. Todd Bowles defenses run over-aggressive, and Ryan wants that approach against Dallas after watching Houston sit back and let CeeDee Lamb go wherever he wanted in the middle. Then Scott chimes in that Tampa has at least one interception in every game. At +110, that’s a pick worth firing.
The Underdog Entry And First Touchdown Tickets
The Underdog entry pulls the best of the card together. Daniels goes higher on 225.5 combined pass and rush yards, which Sean says feels very low. Ryan adds Javonte Williams lower on the 15.5-yard longest rush to get a Cowboy on the board. Then Cade Otton goes higher on 5.45 fantasy points in half-point reception scoring, which needs something like 45 yards with a few catches, or one touchdown wins it automatically. Scott likes the fantasy points route because the Cowboys can’t tackle and Otton could break a couple. Ryan calls it a winner, and a $100 entry returns $591.
In the first touchdown market, Scott mostly passes on Dallas because Lamb, Pickens and Javonte are all priced too short. His lone Cowboy is Jake Ferguson at 14-1 for the red zone targets. Then he goes Tampa three ways: Bucky at +1150 for usage alone, Daniels at 20-1 on a possible designed run and Egbuka at 20-1 as the main big-play guy. He also flags a pricing quirk. Egbuka was +275 anytime while Godwin sat at 5-1, yet Godwin first touchdown paid only about an extra 10 bucks, so the numbers didn’t line up for him.
Ryan is surprised Sean Tucker is only 20-1 after the three-snap, three-red-zone-touch game, since Tucker wasn’t out there for all the goal line work and Kenny Gainwell had way more snaps at 26-1. Sean plays Tucker anyway because he looks like the goal line back. He also adds Daniels at 20-1 and Otton at 35-1. Ryan’s card is Otton at 35-1, Godwin at 30-1, Daniels at 20-1 and the Tampa Bay defense at 40-1. He’s still annoyed he skipped Nico Collins and his two touchdowns, and his read on this matchup is simple: all the receivers are going to go off.
Degen Plays Built Around Jalon Daniels
Scott’s degen play leans into reverse correlation. He takes Daniels for two touchdowns parlayed with the Cowboys -6.5 at roughly 69-1. Tampa still isn’t very good, he argues, and Dallas is the better team, but the Cowboys can’t stop quarterbacks and Daniels should get used in the red zone. Ryan keeps his simple at first with Daniels throwing for 225 yards and rushing for 100 at 61-1. Then he adds the Bucs winning by more than 6.5, which pushes the ticket to 288-1. He passes on the 13.5 version at 446-1, because 6.5 already pays more than half of that number.
Sean goes Daniels 90 rushing yards, a Sean Tucker touchdown and the Bucs to win for 80-1. Ryan asks why 90 and not 100, and Sean’s answer comes from scar tissue. Michael Wilson stalled at 95 yards on his ladder before Brissett threw a back-breaking pick six late. Also, a Bucs fan named Frank The Tank sends in Bucs -21.5 as his degen play, which sends Ryan into the wrong column of the alt lines before he finds 16.5 as the furthest Tampa line at 30-1. Scott has four pods on deck tomorrow, including Shanghai tennis and the NBA Central division preview. Ryan signs off the only way this card allowed, with one more shot at the Cowboys.
Watch: The Downfall of Boston Sports
Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
0:44 Bijan, Brian Robinson & Dinner in Vegas
6:30 Yankees, Nets, Helicopters & Role Model
21:23 Jalon Daniels Over Passing Yards
23:01 Jalon Daniels Over Rush Yards
24:25 Ted Hurst Over 22 and a Half
26:22 Godwin Over Three and a Half Catches
27:26 Cade Otton Over 27 and a Half Receiving Yards
28:56 Godwin Over 27 and a Half Receiving Yards
30:28 Javonte Williams Longest Rush Under
31:35 Javonte Williams No Touchdown
33:05 Dak Prescott Plus Money Interception
34:58 Underdog Entry
40:10 First TDs
44:44 Daniels, Tucker & Bucs Alt Lines
49:43 Shanghai Tennis, WNBA & NBA Central
51:46 Thank You for Participating in the Sports Gambling Podcast
